Coronavirus

[Chris152]

Trying to score political points and criticism with the benefit of hindsight is pointless right now - we need to focus on getting the future right. I don't doubt the sincerity of those involved in solving the problems or the efforts they are putting in. There would be no mileage in changing horses mid-stream - we can only analyse the performance and make better plans for the future when the dust has settled.

As an example - PPE is clearly an issue. I don't know by how much demand for these has increased - I would expect that a 10-20% should have been easily achievable. But if demand is up by a factor of 10 (worldwide!) it is no surprise there are shortages - manufacturing capacity limitations, raw material supplies etc . You can't (I assume) make adequate masks out of curtains if you have run out of the right filter material!

No political 'point scoring' here. Pointing out the dreadful failure of our govt to act in good time given the advance warnings and criticisms of tardiness in UK action is important for both now and the future - which continues to be a real issue as I watch painters and decorators etc still doing their 'essential' work in people's homes, fencing companies driving around three to a cab in order to put up some essential trellis and so on. 2m distancing, my bottom. The idea that we should not fault-find and criticise how things are still being run in spite of how it so frequently and obviously flies in the face of the govt's own guidance is to me ridiculous and lazy-minded. The govt needs to take further action immediately. Changing horses mid-stream? Sometimes it's a very good idea, especially when facing further disaster if we don't.

As for PPE - if the govt had taken seriously the warnings being sent months ago about this virus and made proper preparation, we'd have been much better placed now. I got of the phone an hour ago from a friend whose daughter's a medical student training to be a GP and who's been working in a hospital til three days ago, since when she's been unable to get out of bed on account of having the virus. 22 years old, 200 miles from her mum and nobody to look after her. Apparently much of the care involves helping patients to cough, to clear their lungs. When she started at the hospital a couple of weeks back, they were told there was no face protection but that they could go and buy some at Wickes. (Forgive the capitals, but) WHAT THE HELL IS THAT??? Our children/ loved ones putting their lives on the line to save others, and the govt hasn't done enough preparation / procurement to protect them while you can still go to the hardware store and buy the kit needed?! Other countries did, ours didn't. The idea we shouldn't say anything about this now? Wait til it's all over and we'll come back to it once everyone's calm?

Sorry, I'm angry. And not really sorry for expressing my anger.

 

[steve1001]

Reply to Steve

http://Www.ons.gov.uk is the repository for everything. Sometimes not user friendly. Most reports have links to the raw data, downloadable as excel or csv files. Often the downloaded file has multiple tabs. I use them a lot in my work for pay, inflation and so on.

Some tables are called time series. That's what you want if you are doing year on year comparisons. Once you have it as an excel workbook you can cut it any way you want.

Was planning to look at it myself, not got round to it yet.

Thanks Richard

I had already had a look there and found annual figures from 2018, and going far back. I could not see 2019 or 2020 figures. I will have another hunt around on there tonight.

It's all well and good saying that 900 people have died (sad to say) today, but it would be useful to know the severity of the increase compared to previous years.

Steve

 

[Andy Kev.]

I see we have a lot of discussion about deterrent punishments.

Although those of us who don't commit crimes think that punishments must deter criminals, all the evidence from research (and there is quite a lot of it) shows that criminal sanctions don't deter people from committing crimes. This is up to and including the death penalty.

The reasons are complex, but the main one is that the criminals in question don't believe they are caught (and usually don't understand how and why they were caught either). Or they don't even believe that what they are doing is criminal, thus risking punishment. The evidence really is very strong indeed. This is one of my favourite pieces of research, in case anyone wants to check out what I say: "Does Criminal Law Deter"

So advocating birching, or death, or long prison terms, is not increasing deterrence, whatever the person doing so might think.

There are other arguments in favour of tough sentences (punishment, revenge, prevention of future crime) which can be justified. Then we can argue the morality etc of making a change. But deterrence isn't one of them.

I think that there is one flaw in your argument and that is that you can never know who was deterred from committing a crime by the prospect of the punishment which the crime attracts. Nobody is going to say, "I was seriously thinking of killing him but I decided not to because I didn't want to be hanged".

The anti-capital punishment lobby always makes the non-deterrence argument to which my reply is "prove it". Then there is the matter of justice. I think it just to execute some criminals. Note the "some" as there is many a murderer for whom execution might be unjust.

 

[Jake]

Again, a wave of weirdly irrelevant venting about how some people should be whipped, shot, executed, etc.

It would be semi-amusing how vitriol makes people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown, but the dynamic is more concerning than that.

 

[RogerS]

Again, a wave of weirdly irrelevant venting about how some people should be whipped, shot, executed, etc.

It would be semi-amusing how vitriol makes people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown, but the dynamic is more concerning than that.

Not really, Jake. Just that a lot of us are fed up of "Virtue-signalling, third-party apologising, pseudo-liberals'.

 

[Lons]

PRC has a population 30 times ours and didn't reach anywhere near that number

Do you really believe that Droogs? I seriously doubt that too many people do believe the information from China, next you'll be telling us they didn't initially cover up the outbreak. Plenty of compelling evidence they did!

 

[Setch]

The anti-capital punishment lobby always makes the non-deterrence argument to which my reply is "prove it".

Countries with the death sentence typically don't have lower crime stats.

In fact, if you compare US States with capital punishment vs those without, the Death penalty states have significantly higher rates of crime in general, and murder specifically.

I'd suggest the onus is on the Capital Punishment lobby to show it reduces crime, but they can't.

Next?

 

[Andy Kev.]

Again, a wave of weirdly irrelevant venting about how some people should be whipped, shot, executed, etc.

It would be semi-amusing how vitriol makes people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown, but the dynamic is more concerning than that.

I can only speak for myself but as far as I'm concerned it is to do with justice. Vitriol or getting worked up doesn't come into it.

 

[MikeG.]

.......The anti-capital punishment lobby always makes the non-deterrence argument to which my reply is "prove it".......

I'm afraid you just reversed the burden of proof, Andy. It isn't up to us to prove anything. It is up to the proponents of capital punishment to prove that it has a deterrent effect. Good luck with that.

 

[Jake]

Again, a wave of weirdly irrelevant venting about how some people should be whipped, shot, executed, etc.

It would be semi-amusing how vitriol makes people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown, but the dynamic is more concerning than that.

I can only speak for myself but as far as I'm concerned it is to do with justice. Vitriol or getting worked up doesn't come into it.

OK then, let's just say semi-amusing how wishing bad things would happen to bad people makes other people who consider themselves good people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown etc.

 

[John Brown]

I've rarely read such total b@ll@cks.
If i could somehow catch the venom dripping from this thread, and inject it into a horse, I reckon I could produce a marketable antidote to The Express and Fox News.
I think it was Anatole France who said "the law, in its infinite wisdom, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, from sleeping under a bridge, or stealing a loaf of bread"(forgive my paraphrase, I can't be pineappled to look it up).
What deters you from mugging old ladies in the street? Is it the fear of a fine, or imprisonment, or the birch?
Similarly, what stops you commiting rape or sex crimes? If it's just the worry that you might be punished, then OK, I'm totally off target here.

No. I didn't think so. Deterrents only work for rational people.
That's why you hear outrage when insurance fraudsters receive sterner punishments than muggers, but ask yourself, what is it that deters you from making fraudulent insurance claims, or cheating the tax man?
This is a scary and Cumquats time we're all going through. I'm not entirely sure how focussing on a very minority element, and whether or not we should be allowed to shoot them is the best way forwards.

 

[sploo]

"Virtue-signalling, third-party apologising, pseudo-liberals'.

I think you've managed to get several of the answers to this week's Daily Mail crossword with those Roger...

 

[steve1001]

Gentlemen.

If I read the internet or watch the TV (heaven forbid) I am left with the impression that there has been a major increase in the number of deaths (constantly 800+ a day!).
I am trying to figure out if there is in fact a marked increase in the death rate, or is it that those people that have died (sorry to say) would have succumbed at some point, but unluckily were taken early by Covid-19 instead.

Here are a few figures from a dataset of recorded deaths in England and Wales for this year, and are provisional counts of death registrations.
The report is interesting as it shows the weekly deaths this year, and the average deaths in the corresponding weeks for the previous 5 years.

The data are from one of the Gov websites:-
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales

Accreditation to ONS - Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence.

I consider these figures to be pretty accurate, but they are provisional (see notes on the original spreadsh

About the dataset:-
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available.

Column 1 = Week Ending.
Column 2 = Total deaths, all ages.
Column 3 = Total deaths: average of corresponding week over the previous 5 years.
Column 4 = Difference in the weekly number of deaths - my calculation insertion.
Column 5 = Deaths due to Covid, that are also included in the previous column figures.

03-Jan-20 12,254 12,175 +79
10-Jan-20 14,058 13,822 +236
17-Jan-20 12,990 13,216 -226
24-Jan-20 11,856 12,760 -904
31-Jan-20 11,612 12,206 -594
07-Feb-20 10,986 11,925 -939
14-Feb-20 10,944 11,627 -683
21-Feb-20 10,841 11,548 -707
28-Feb-20 10,816 11,183 -367
06-Mar-20 10,895 11,498 -603
13-Mar-20 11,019 11,205 -186 [Covid=3]
20-Mar-20 10,645 10,573 +72 [Covid=103]
27-Mar-20 11,141 10,130 +1011 [Covid=539]


Steve

 

[Droogs]

PRC has a population 30 times ours and didn't reach anywhere near that number

Do you really believe that Droogs? I seriously doubt that too many people do believe the information from China, next you'll be telling us they didn't initially cover up the outbreak. Plenty of compelling evidence they did!

At no point have I said they were not tardy at reporting it or that they didn't try to cover it up, I am inclined to believe they did from the available evidence. all in the name of face. But once it was out I believe they have been fairly open about their stats

 

[Andy Kev.]

.......The anti-capital punishment lobby always makes the non-deterrence argument to which my reply is "prove it".......

I'm afraid you just reversed the burden of proof, Andy. It isn't up to us to prove anything. It is up to the proponents of capital punishment to prove that it has a deterrent effect. Good luck with that.

The problem is, as I pointed out earlier, that we can never know who has been deterred from crime by any kind of sentence and by definition anybody who has committed any kind of crime was not deterred at all.

This then brings us back to the idea of what we as a society consider to be the right punishment for each type of crime. Personally, I would like the death penalty to be available - while being anything but automatic - for murder and certain other crimes as I think it a good way of showing society's disapproval of the most heinous kinds of crime.

 

[Andy Kev.]

Again, a wave of weirdly irrelevant venting about how some people should be whipped, shot, executed, etc.

It would be semi-amusing how vitriol makes people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown, but the dynamic is more concerning than that.

I can only speak for myself but as far as I'm concerned it is to do with justice. Vitriol or getting worked up doesn't come into it.

OK then, let's just say semi-amusing how wishing bad things would happen to bad people makes other people who consider themselves good people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown etc.

I think that you are trying to deflect from the issue. First you introduce the hyperbolic notion of vitriol and now you claim that the case for capital punishment is simply a product of a time of stress. I imagine that most people who think it should be available do so irrespective of the circumstances of the day. Outrage flairs up when particularly offensive crimes are committed but the ideas of how to deal with them are probably constant.

The point being that for some years the "bad people" have been in a position to laugh at the justice system because at the lower levels they are unlikely to be punished at all and at the other extreme of the hardened, professional crook they know that they will have to endure no more than being deprived of their liberty.

FWIW my personal take on sentencing is as follows. At the moment we (might) sling somebody in the nick. All too often that individual resumes a life of crime when he gets out again. So, in a measurable number of cases, the punishment didn't work and it had no deterrent effect. Clearly we need to rehabilitate as well as punish.

Therefore I would have two components to every sentence: a punishment phase and a rehabilitation phase. The punishment phase should be brutal and deeply unpleasant e.g. extremely hard labour, spartan cells, lousy food etc. Once that phase has been completed and the prisoner has shown himself to be compliant and obedient, then go on to the rehabilitation phase, which essentially would consist of training and education to make the individual employable on release. This phase would look like being at college but with something like military levels of discipline as in basic training. Decent accommodation, generally good conditions, lots of classroom/workshop work etc. Any bad behaviour to result in a return to the punishment phase. Upon release they are sent to a job for which they are now qualified (clearly employers would be involved in the scheme).

Second offenders should get a longer, harder punishment phase (effectively with the idea of breaking even the hardest professional criminal) but then another chance at training and education.

Third offenders are in until they die but are offered the choice of a painless death by injection at any time they want.

Run that in tandem with the courts being allowed to award the death sentence for crimes which we think deserve it and I think we might end up with a justice system which is fit for purpose. The punishment phase in particular needs to have a frightening reputation.

And I can assure you that all the above is not the product of stress but are ideas which I have had for some years. The current system is not good enough and should IMO be done away with.

 

[Blackswanwood]

Just a suggestion.

As executions/floggings etc have nothing at all to do with C19 would it be a good idea that they be taken to another thread for those interested?

I for one will avoid such a thread as I wouldn’t want to offend those who support the notion that it works with my pseudo liberal, third party apologist and whatever the third one was that Roger has labelled me with.

This thread does have a tendency to go beyond debate and get quite vitriolic. I thought (as per the rules) this is supposed to be a friendly forum where members respected the views of others.

Happy Easter.

 

[Rorschach]

Just a suggestion.

As executions/floggings etc have nothing at all to do with C19 would it be a good idea that they be taken to another thread for those interested?

I for one will avoid such a thread as I wouldn’t want to offend those who support the notion that it works with my pseudo liberal, third party apologist and whatever the third one was that Roger has labelled me with.

This thread does have a tendency to go beyond debate and get quite vitriolic. I thought (as per the rules) this is supposed to be a friendly forum where members respected the views of others.

Happy Easter.

I agree.

 

[MikeG.]

........I am trying to figure out if there is in fact a marked increase in the death rate, or is it that those people that have died (sorry to say) would have succumbed at some point, but unluckily were taken early by Covid-19 instead..........

Sorry to have to break it to you Steve, but we're all going to die at some point.

 

[Andy Kev.]

Just a suggestion.

As executions/floggings etc have nothing at all to do with C19 would it be a good idea that they be taken to another thread for those interested?

I for one will avoid such a thread as I wouldn’t want to offend those who support the notion that it works with my pseudo liberal, third party apologist and whatever the third one was that Roger has labelled me with.

This thread does have a tendency to go beyond debate and get quite vitriolic. I thought (as per the rules) this is supposed to be a friendly forum where members respected the views of others.

Happy Easter.

It probably is slightly too much of a divergence from the topic. Mind you, I can't see any grounds for people getting hot under the collar i.e. it's not difficult to maintain a friendly atmosphere.