Coronavirus

[Rorschach]

Company asked us to work from home this week. Today they told us there is a suspected case in our office. Asked us to self isolate and warned us we may be working from home until the Summer. They have a specialist team in now for a week deep cleaning our offices. Already going through a redundancy round so I have serious doubts whether I will have a job in the next few months. Could be worse though and feel for others whose business is under threat.

Deep cleaning is a waste of money if the office is empty.

 

[porker]

Large multinational company. Got to be seen to be doing something even if it's a total waste of time.

 

[Jake]

Schools haven't been closed because under the mitigation strategy they were happy for the spreading to take place for 'herd immunity', now they've realised suppression was the only viable strategy after all that was a nuts policy but they can't back off immediately because they previously said it wasn't necessary and was very a last ditch measure, and also presumably need some planning time because they aren't ready to roll out the surrounding policies.

It seems that decision is on scientific advice, not a political decision. Here's a clip of Sir Patrick Valance, Chief Scientific Officer, explaining his advice to a committee of MPs earlier today.

https://order-order.com/2020/03/17/schools-not-shut/

Lost trust in him, saying 20,000 is horrible in that faux way (when they were deliberately planning for 250k under their mitigation/herd immunity strategy), being disingenuous about the modelling pineapple-up.

 

[Jake]

The schools issue is nuanced by the fact that if all the kids get sent home a big chunk of hospital staff disappear.

That's the surrounding policies, along with low income children, and no doubt other bits. All takes a run up, especially as apparently this has exposed a lack of detailed level pandemic planning below the top level docs.

 

[julianf]

This ever repeated line about not being able to close schools due to NHS staff...

I, personally, think it's another lie.

2 reasons -

If keeping them open loads the NHS that much greater, its arguably worse than closing them and loosing a few staff.

But, more importantly -

How many families have two parents who both work in the NHS? Some, for sure. Some families don't have two parents, etc. But, in reality, a family with 2.4 children, 2 adults etc. and one works in the NHS... The other one, at a time if national emergency, could (with compensation if required) stay home to look after the kids.

I mean it's hardly worth risking mass fatalities for, is it?


Personally, I'm of the opinion that the powers that be know the UK is unavoidably stuffed, and the "mitigation" is more along the lines of "get it over with as quickly as possible, and get back to earning, whilst other countries are still caring for their sick"


We had house guests over new years.
They live in Paris. They get fined for leaving their apartment without the correct (self produced) paperwork outlining their intentions.

The UK? Told to avoid pubs...

(Oh, and we have approximately half the number of ICU beds, per capita, as France!)

 

[MusicMan]

Emergency Ventilator Manufacture

The Government has widely circulated a list of components for ventilators that they are asking firms to supply. Of course the assembly, testing etc will be done by experienced and certified staff, but many of the components are quite routine - tubes, fans, motors, pumps, valves and can certainly be made by many competent firms. This is being really well organised and I am quite hopeful. Of course the organisation is being done by the civil servants of BEIS not the politicians, but the latter have promised to buy all that can be made. Similar initiatives are going on in the EU and USA at least.

Many engineers have been asked to pass this on through our networks, so if anyone is in an appropriate company, or has contacts in one, please pass it on.

https://ventilator.herokuapp.com

 

[Trainee neophyte]

I'm a creature of habit, on the way home I call into Sainsbury's most days, buy 2 apples and a snack for lunch the next day plus milk for the next day at work.
I have never seen the shelves so bare. 2/3 empty, put the shhitteers up me a bit no fresh food at all no frozen, no dried. Just the bollooxs no want wants in a time of crisis and chocolate.

It was made very clear to me yesterday that there will be no supply issues, and food security is assured. So don't worry.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Here is the paper that uk and USA governments are working to, apparently. Dr Neil Ferguson.
https://www.scribd.com/document/4520698 ... 16-03-2020

Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin,Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, IlariaDorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine vanElsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker,Caroline Walters, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani.On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response TeamWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease ModellingMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease AnalysisAbdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency AnalyticsImperial College London

Correspondence: [email protected]

Summary
The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is themost serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present theresults of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countriesin recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number ofpublic health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducingcontact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presentedhere, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britainspecifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likelyto be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact ontransmission.Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarilystopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk ofsevere disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducingcase numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has majorchallenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of theelderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 anddeaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds ofthousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed manytimes over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of socialdistancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their familymembers. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should berecognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission –will need to be maintained until avaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmissionwill quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily inrelative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbersrebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible inthe short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social andeconomic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.

Apologies for the big block of text and formatting issues

 

[lurker]

Posters keep commenting about schools closing would effect nhs parents.
Whilst no one disputes they are important people, we need lots of others at work.
What about power station staff, or oxygen manufacturers just for two examples.

Journalists and politicians keep going on about working from home.
Anybody who can do this is in a relatively unimportant job.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

Listening to one of the evening radio news programmes yesterday evening, an interview with a former senior executive with one of the big supermarkets covered the problems the big food retailers are facing. He said there are no supply shortages, but the sudden increases in demand in stores has overwhelmed the resupply systems. All the major retailers use sophisticated notification from store checkouts to warehouse to trigger resupply orders, but sudden huge spikes mean that the system takes a few days to catch up. Also, the increase in load on transport and physically moving stock from lorry to shelf in store has forced supermarkets to take some emergency measures. Things will catch up, but it may take a day or two.

He also pointed out that the official advice to avoid pubs and clubs has meant that many people who used to eat out several times a week are now eating in, moving demand from the pub and restaurant trade to retail supermarkets. The food that would have gone to those parts of the catering sector is now in the market and available to retailers, but again, it'll take a day or two for systems to settle down.

His message was that there are no supply shortages of any foodstuff or commodity, but the sudden change in demand pattern has shocked the supermarkets' systems. They will adjust, and quite quickly.

Empty shelves won't become the norm, and if everyone just calms down and just buys what they need when they need it, we'll be fine. On the food front, anyway.

As for the wider economy, too soon to say, but the immediate effects on many businesses have been pretty dramatic. Fingers crossed for those affected, with hope that government's emergency economic measures do actually help.

 

[AES]

Thanks very much for a calm and measured - and to me anyway - logical post CC. This is exactly how I'm reading the situation in Switzerland too.

About the only difference I can see between the 2 countries in respect of handling Corona is that here all schools are closed. I'm unable to work out who is "right" who is "wrong" on this issue (I suspect that both approaches will be shown to have been "right" and "wrong" when we come to the end of all this - which will no doubt prompt loads of posts here and elsewhere about ""right" was "wrong" really, and vice-versa!) but hope that those who have decided to keep their children away from school in the UK will not eventually be "punished" by the system. In the end, it is after all the responsibility of parents to make sure their kids are safe.

Again, fingers crossed for all affected financially, especially those who see/will see their income rapidly disappearing altogether.

 

[Student]

On a lighter note, and apologies if this has already been posted, or if it offends anyone, I received the following from our daughter in New Zealand. It was obviously written by a Brit, possibly Nigel Farage judging by the comments on our European neighbours, but I thought quite amusing nevertheless.

UK Virus ALERT

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, level may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.”

The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.

The virus has been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

The Scots have raised their threat level from “pineappled Off” to “Let's Get the turnip.” They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.

Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”

The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbour” and “Lose.”

Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.

The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from “No worries” to “She'll be alright, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.

The Russians have said “It’s not us”

 

[AES]

Thanks Student, that raised more than a smile or two, though I must say I've seen it somewhere before (not in the Corona context but something else - can't remember where, why, when). Still good for a chuckle or two though.

 

[Rorschach]

Journalists and politicians keep going on about working from home.
Anybody who can do this is in a relatively unimportant job.

My partner is in this situation. As it stands her job cannot be done from home, the work is too sensitive to be done over a domestic internet connection. Weirdly though all their bosses and line managers are working from home because all they need is email and a phone line. When I asked her what is it they do her response was:

"They tell all of us how to do our jobs despite not ever having done the job themselves and barely understanding what it is we do. In general they interfere and make things more difficult."

So yes, the ones who can work from home are not really doing anything useful at all. I said that if the really big bosses come to realise this it could be the catalyst that causes a big shake up in the system.

 

[Chris152]

Well, our local comp is closing by the end of the week and there'll be cover for children who can't be taken care of at home.
As with sporting fixtures, the govt is behind the curve on this and individuals/ organisations are left to make the right (or wrong) decisions themselves.

 

[stuartpaul]

And the best news so far? - the BBC are only going to show Eastenders twice a week instead of (what appears to be) 6 times a night! If this goes on long enough they'll run out of episodes all together.

That's what I call a result.

 

[transatlantic]

Journalists and politicians keep going on about working from home.
Anybody who can do this is in a relatively unimportant job.

My partner is in this situation. As it stands her job cannot be done from home, the work is too sensitive to be done over a domestic internet connection. Weirdly though all their bosses and line managers are working from home because all they need is email and a phone line. When I asked her what is it they do her response was:

"They tell all of us how to do our jobs despite not ever having done the job themselves and barely understanding what it is we do. In general they interfere and make things more difficult."

So yes, the ones who can work from home are not really doing anything useful at all. I said that if the really big bosses come to realise this it could be the catalyst that causes a big shake up in the system.

I work for a Games Studio, we'll soon be working from home over a "domestic internet connection". It can be done provided you have suitable security in place.

So yes, the ones who can work from home are not really doing anything useful at all.

:?: :roll: :roll:

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Things that have interested me today: https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03 ... -leak-out/

The government of Italy, as everyone knows, has locked down the whole country of 60 million people. So how many Italians have died from COV? Even by the standards of the useless and misleading diagnostic tests?

Ready?

As far as the Italian Higher Institute of Health knows, at this point:

Maybe two.

Maybe.

It's about whether the virus kills, or pre-existing conditions exacerbated by the virus kills. He is claiming it's not the virus on its own.

And Gail Tverberg has this, looking at the economics of shutting down the economy: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/03/11/i ... more-44860

Epidemiologists talk about the spread of a virus being stopped at the community immunity level. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch originally estimated that 40% to 70% of the world’s population would come down with COVID-19 within the first year. He has revised this and now states that it is plausible that 20% to 60% of the world’s population will catch the disease in that timeframe. He also indicates that if the virus cannot be contained, the only way to get it under control is for 50% of the world’s population to become immune to it.

Lots of charts and discussion about the implications of people not working, and the knock-on effects. Hopefully thought inducing.

 

[lurker]

Transatlantic,
I very much doubt a games studio (please enlighten me as to what this is) deal with classified information.

 

[AES]

Rohrschach, you wrote,

"They tell all of us how to do our jobs despite not ever having done the job themselves and barely understanding what it is we do. In general they interfere and make things more difficult."

I do sympathise with your partner mate, but please tell her from me that based on my own experience as an employee, this is unfortunately all too common and has nothing to do with the present situation - and the generally speaking, the bigger the company the worse it gets too! I can only imagine the damage that all the "highly qualified consultants" (NOT!) beavering away at home - and co-incidentally, blocking the net for "normal" people who need to order food and medicines - will do to otherwise successful companies!

Ah well, "such is life" ;-)