Coronavirus

[AES]

Blimey, if that's really true sploo (sorry! - and I'm NOT doubting you) then that's really awful.

As a genuine Q, just how difficult is it for a firm (paper making company, obviously) to make such masks, on a 24 hour shifts basis if necessary? At first sight anyway, such masks look simple enough. And yeah, OK, there's the problem of distributing the finished product to hospitals, etc, all around the country after production. But we are after all, as someone has already pointed out, pretty much on a "war" footing aren't we?

So how much assistance is being provided by the military in such non-violent tasks in UK? I do known that in terms of numbers, the UK military is but a shadow of its former self, but in the Army for example, isn't there something called the Royal Corp of Logistics (or similar name)?

 

[Trevanion]

I'm not sure if someone's already mentioned this or not...

I honestly cannot see how they could've done anything more two weeks ago than what they've already done. The majority of the country including myself was practically in denial about the consequences, "Bah, It won't get that bad here" and absolutely no restrictions would've been followed if they came two weeks ago, and if they were enforced by the police/army there would've been riots which would've probably resulted in even more cases of the virus as you don't exactly have social distancing in a riot.

There needed to be a level of fear before they could enact these policies, unfortunately the fear is measured in deaths.

 

[stuartpaul]

Just add to that the fact that rough as it has been for me, I am still in the "mild" category. When people hear this is a mild disease for 80% who get it, all that means is that they recover at home without having to be admitted to hospital. Don't get fooled by that description. The mild form of the disease that I have got would kill most of your mothers and fathers if you are over, say, 50. Do whatever you can to keep them safe.

Indeed. Mild (in this instance) means not needing to be on a ventilator in hospital. Though to be honest, my wife (NHS doctor) is currently more worried about the lack of basic paper masks than ventilators.

Helpfully they have received some official guidance from the GMC how to cope in the face of insufficient protective equipment... in not-that-many-more words it's basically "send in the youngest healthiest doctor, or the one who's most expendable". I sh*t you not.

My wife (nurse) came home last night spitting feathers due to the lack of PPE on her ward.

The distribution has been/is abso-pineapple-lutely useless. This is a known issue and has been for some time so this lack is inexcusable.

When I get it (and it's when not if) I want to find Hancock and sneeze on him.

 

[RogerS]

I'm not sure if someone's already mentioned this or not...

I honestly cannot see how they could've done anything more two weeks ago than what they've already done. .....

Now where shall I start ? Given that they had a massive heads-up from what had happened in China and Italy, perhaps getting enough PPE equipment in the right place and the right numbers might be a start.

Closed the pubs, bars and restaurants etc.

Closed the schools...shall I continue ?

Hancock is a waste of space.

 

[Bodgers]

Just add to that the fact that rough as it has been for me, I am still in the "mild" category. When people hear this is a mild disease for 80% who get it, all that means is that they recover at home without having to be admitted to hospital. Don't get fooled by that description. The mild form of the disease that I have got would kill most of your mothers and fathers if you are over, say, 50. Do whatever you can to keep them safe.

Indeed. Mild (in this instance) means not needing to be on a ventilator in hospital. Though to be honest, my wife (NHS doctor) is currently more worried about the lack of basic paper masks than ventilators.

Helpfully they have received some official guidance from the GMC how to cope in the face of insufficient protective equipment... in not-that-many-more words it's basically "send in the youngest healthiest doctor, or the one who's most expendable". I sh*t you not.

I don't think needing mechanical ventilation was required for that severe category. Hospitalisation with a variety of support was enough e.g. being given oxygen. Not everyone in hospital for this ends up on an ventilator, I think that would be "serious or critical", which was single digit percentages.

 

[Selwyn]

So he should have said one excerise period and not one form of excercise. My point.

Are you being deliberately stupid to get some attention?

Dont talk to Phil with that tone please.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

Why not? It was such a daft thing to say

 

[Andy Kev.]

This is an excellent proxy for the quality of your judgement.

Proxy? Are you sure you've got the word you need?

In any event I'm quite happy to accept that my judgement proved false as pointed out by Roger. And given that you don't deny that you are not Jacob, the matter appears to be most firmly closed.

 

[MikeG.]

.......Why not?........

Because it is completely against the rules. And because this is a serious thread on a serious subject that doesn't need diverting by a little inter-personal tiff.

 

[Trevanion]

Now where shall I start ? Given that they had a massive heads-up from what had happened in China and Italy, perhaps getting enough PPE equipment in the right place and the right numbers might be a start.

I wouldn't be surprised there's enough PPE in the country to supply who/what actually needs it ten-times over, it's the selfish lunatics that have been buying it and stockpiling it that are at fault. I've got an unopened pack of Wurth paper masks and a box of nitrile gloves which I'm really not going to be using for a while (They're mainly for other people anyway, I use a proper P3 face mask), which I've offered free to a good home provided it is actually for a legible cause that needs it and not hoarding.

Closed the pubs, bars and restaurants etc.

Closed the schools...shall I continue ?

Nobody would've taken it seriously though, "Oh there's only 13 cases in a country of 60M" I know that because I was saying the exact same thing because I'm a massive cynic.

Closed the pubs, bars and restaurants? Garden parties like BM101's Bill or meet up in an abandoned warehouse for a right grand water-up like some young people I know are doing now around here.

Close the schools and everything else so that people can look after their kids? "Ah, we'll all just go out to the park or beach or something" Like they've been doing around here...

Trying to enforce it properly two weeks ago would've been nigh-on impossible without having to shoot people, even I can see that.

 

[D_W]

I heard on the news this morning that they hadn't asked construction sites to close though they're soon going to run out of materials as the merchants shut down.

I'd report that plumber to the authorities as he's breaking the law unless he has a blue badge. Maybe send him a text to that mobile number first politely asking him park elsewhere might make him think.

I asked him politely to park elsewhere as that was the only place I could be picked up safely the other side in front of my house is a bus stop. He told me to basically to buzz off and soon started to puff his chest. I wished at the time it was 10 years ago for one I wouldn't of felt so useless

Here in the states, if that was a designated spot, it would take little time to have that plumber nailed.

In my state (the outbreak is different state to state, even county to county, so we all have different rules right now), plumbers and repairmen are allowed to do emergency or repair work, but not new construction. Possible that we'd see plumbers on the job here installing furnaces and such if it's necessary. Large construction sites are shut.

Dad works at a golf course in retirement - they are forced to close. I asked him what he's going to do without a part time day job, and he said "going to go play golf because the owner said he didn't see a reason why we couldn't". Fair chance if he's seen, the police will question him - we'll see how that goes. Should be open and shut since he works there - it's not an open business.

 

[sploo]

Blimey, if that's really true sploo (sorry! - and I'm NOT doubting you) then that's really awful.

Sadly it's completely true. Some of the official guidance notes they're getting are works of art in terms of comedy tact. As an example, when faced with too many patients to treat, the doctors are advised to consider "co-morbidity factors". In other words; if patient A is old or already ill, and patient B isn't, then give the ventilator to patient B (because A will probably die anyway - or take up the kit for ages). Obviously doctors have to make these sorts of serious moral decisions normally, but this is going to be extreme.

As a genuine Q, just how difficult is it for a firm (paper making company, obviously) to make such masks, on a 24 hour shifts basis if necessary? At first sight anyway, such masks look simple enough. And yeah, OK, there's the problem of distributing the finished product to hospitals, etc, all around the country after production. But we are after all, as someone has already pointed out, pretty much on a "war" footing aren't we?

That's a difficult one to answer. Probably not that hard to make, but maybe harder to prove FFP3 certification.

On the question of "what could have been done"; there's been many weeks of notice of impeding problems from around the work (Italy alone is probably ~2 weeks ahead of us in terms of cases). Years of NHS underfunding, plus incompetent ministers are a major negative factor in our preparedness. As for the public's lack of action in self-isolating... well, we have just spent the last few years politically telling the public not to listen to experts, so perhaps the apathy isn't surprising.

Add to that, the mixed and mumbled message we've had from Boris for several days, I can understand why many probably feel it's not really that serious. It is; the info my wife's getting from colleagues in Italy is chilling.

 

[sploo]

My wife (nurse) came home last night spitting feathers due to the lack of PPE on her ward.

The distribution has been/is abso-pineapple-lutely useless. This is a known issue and has been for some time so this lack is inexcusable.

Absolutely. Now, of course, we couldn't expect the government and NHS management to magic up another 10,000 ventilators in a fortnight; that's not reasonable, but just making sure there's enough sodding paper masks for medical staff is pretty darn basic.

 

[sploo]

Nobody would've taken it seriously though, "Oh there's only 13 cases in a country of 60M" I know that because I was saying the exact same thing because I'm a massive cynic.

Here's the problem though; if those 13 people are out and about, and each one infects just two people during their day, then by day one there will be 13+2*13=39 people infected.

If those 39 now each infect another two people on the next day then that's 39*2+39=117. By day three it's 351, then 1,053, then 3,159, then 9,477..

By day 14 you've theoretically infected your whole 60M population (62,178,597).

Obviously it's unlikely to be that high, but you get the picture. The long incubation time of Covid-19 means people can be infecting others for many days before they come down with symptoms.

 

[Jake]

This is an excellent proxy for the quality of your judgement.

Proxy? Are you sure you've got the word you need?

This is an excellent proxy for the depth of your understanding.

 

[RogerS]

Now where shall I start ? Given that they had a massive heads-up from what had happened in China and Italy, perhaps getting enough PPE equipment in the right place and the right numbers might be a start.

I wouldn't be surprised there's enough PPE in the country to supply who/what actually needs it ten-times over, it's the selfish lunatics that have been buying it and stockpiling it that are at fault. I've got an unopened pack of Wurth paper masks and a box of nitrile gloves which I'm really not going to be using for a while (They're mainly for other people anyway, I use a proper P3 face mask), which I've offered free to a good home provided it is actually for a legible cause that needs it and not hoarding.

Closed the pubs, bars and restaurants etc.

Closed the schools...shall I continue ?

Nobody would've taken it seriously though, "Oh there's only 13 cases in a country of 60M" I know that because I was saying the exact same thing because I'm a massive cynic.

Closed the pubs, bars and restaurants? Garden parties like BM101's Bill or meet up in an abandoned warehouse for a right grand water-up like some young people I know are doing now around here.

Close the schools and everything else so that people can look after their kids? "Ah, we'll all just go out to the park or beach or something" Like they've been doing around here...

Trying to enforce it properly two weeks ago would've been nigh-on impossible without having to shoot people, even I can see that.

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree.

I forgot to mention insufficient testing, by the way, but I guess you'll discount that as well.

 

[RogerS]

..... In other words; if patient A is old or already ill, and patient B isn't, ....

And the definition of 'old' will be much younger than over-70. Much.

 

[AES]

Thanks for that sploo.

About certification: Yup, I can see that, but can't some tests/checks be loosened (slightly) or speeded up under the circumstances ?(different field, but I've NEVER known any certification authority anywhere that works other than 4 days 9-5 and half day Fridays)!

But I must say that "Why we are where "we" are" interests me less - at present - than what can now be done to get out of this mess.

In reality, though it MAY (IMO) be said that UK acted "too little, too late", I don't really see all that much difference between today's situation and ours in Switzerland.

We MAY have a bit more in terms of emergency resources packed away (I think that's so, for example we're still very strict on Civil Defence here), but it shouldn't be forgotten that we're a country of only approx. 8 m people (about the same as Greater London), AND you can drive from one side to the other (top/bottom or side/side) in about 2-3 hours in any direction.

A bit different for people "up" in, say, Scotland or "down" in Cornwall.

 

[sploo]

..... In other words; if patient A is old or already ill, and patient B isn't, ....

And the definition of 'old' will be much younger than over-70. Much.

Depends on how overloaded the NHS gets I guess, though the mortality percentages don't seem to really ramp up until 70+ (https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-ca ... ity-rates/)

 

[sploo]

Thanks for that sploo.

About certification: Yup, I can see that, but can't some tests/checks be loosened (slightly) or speeded up under the circumstances ?(different field, but I've NEVER known any certification authority anywhere that works other than 4 days 9-5 and half day Fridays)!

Really hard one to answer. If you were given a choice of no mask, or a mask claimed to be FPP3 (but not certified as such) you'd definitely take the mask. Where the legal lines lie (in terms of responsibility of management and procurement) would probably be more blurred, and ripe for litigation.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

Seen elsewhere - a possible tiny glimmer of optimism from Italy. The number of reported new cases has declined for the last couple of days.

https://order-order.com/2020/03/24/glim ... ay-passed/