Coronavirus

[Woody2Shoes]

Putting a value on a human life is uncomfortable, but normal practice for even the UK government.

I understand that for safety related expenditure the "value of prevented fatality" is around £1.8m. I assume this gets applied in considering and prioritising (say) road and rail safety improvements.

One of the things that's different in this situation is that the majority of the cost/value is an opportunity cost. Also, there are still many more unknowns than usual.

 

[MusicMan]

One of my colleagues (an Oxford professor) was involved in this search. She told me that of these hundreds of thousands of drugs, three hits were found including an antimalarial drug (probably one of the ones there is so much noise about currently, but I don't know the details). Research on these started immediately in all countries with supplies and capabilities (and they were immediately banned from export) for clinical trials. Though they are already approved for human use, they still need to be tested in the coronavirus case to see if they work in fact, and at doses that are not otherwise harmful. This is certainly the best hope before a vaccine is developed by one or more of the 20 -ish teams working on this world wide. Who are cooperating well.

Without wanting to give away personal information I don't have the right to expose; I understand Oxford has a strong virology research centre? It's not my wife's medical field, but she's formerly of those woods.[/quote]

Yes, I'd better not mention names but the various medical departments are very strong on virology and how cells and proteins recognise other proteins (eg viruses and cancers). They are also collaborating interdepartmentally with Engineering Science, who already have an important centre in China, and are jointly developing the rapid test for whether you have had coronavirus. This is public information: http://www.ibme.ox.ac.uk/news-events/ne ... r-covid-19. One of the coronavirus vaccine developments is at the Weatherall Institute for Molecular Medicine at Oxford. See also http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-03-24-oxf ... nt-funding. There are also leading epidemiologists there, who are part of the government advice team. There are of course many other groups in the world pursuing similar goals, and I am told that they are all collaborating freely and openly, whatever the politicians say or do.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

[

Economic decline does generally yield lower mortality in the short term. I don't know why that is, but it has always been the case as far as I can recall.

It's a really prosaic reason: reduced economic activity means fewer people driving, which means fewer people killing themselves/each other in collisions.

 

[D_W]

COVID and regulatory stuff has given me more work, and i shouldn't even look this up (professionally, understanding mortality is part of my job, but more in application and less in development of rates) - I do a lot of financial projections of populations, but in the long term (short term noise isn't on my radar).

I figured I'd look this up, anyway, and this is an article that addresses it some.
https://www.aeaweb.org/research/why-doe ... e-increase

The article suggests 17% of the increase is due to motor vehicle stuff. No one cause -little bits discussed, but they don't explain the total. Troublesome comparison because there are some counter trends (income and mortality have a well-known relationship - people with higher income generally live longer, but that is, again, a long-term trend).

Geography, education, etc, all go along with income - I don't know which is causal as I use the results of studies and don't participate in putting them together.

If I were going to try to solve this, I'd start with the large causes of death (heart disease, cancer, diabetes - which is comorbid with lots of things) and see if any of them yielded fruit as the combination of heart disease and cancer has an enormous influence (cancer's impact on life expectancy is pretty constant - a 2% improvement in that respect or so each year). Heart disease declined sharply for decades but has leveled off (most of the change in heart disease is said to be linked to the decline in smoking rates) some. Last year was the first I can recall where aggregate population experience was more favorable than expected by any significant amount.

In the states, we had a huge run up in life expectancy from about 2003-2007 or 8 (not looking it up) then a fairly flat period for quite some time with a little bit of noise (going from memory). Highly publicized stories about decreasing life expectancy have been due to mortality at younger ages as I can recall with continued improvement at later ages - in general).

 

[sploo]

[

Economic decline does generally yield lower mortality in the short term. I don't know why that is, but it has always been the case as far as I can recall.

It's a really prosaic reason: reduced economic activity means fewer people driving, which means fewer people killing themselves/each other in collisions.

Look at it in a positive way: when driving you may get deselected from the population by a self-important boy racer in a Golf GTI, squashed by a bored lorry driver, or taken out by a nervous middle-aged lady in a Nissan Micra.

If you decide to deselect yourself from the population it's your own decision.

Therefore, reduced economic activity is a good thing, as it puts your destiny in your own hands.

I'll get my coat.

 

[D_W]

Based on that article as you're older, too, it appears in volume, the excess deaths occur in older folks. The comparison was a reduction in unemployment - presume that continued employment may not be great for folks, but that would need to be parsed a lot of different ways to find out why. People like single answers, and there may not be many.

The chart can also be misleading as it's nominal, but "old people" tend to have higher mortality rates, so no way to be sure that the rate of "unimprovement" is worse at later ages, even though the bulk of the numbers are there.

 

[stuartpaul]

Well, - it’s either the mother of all colds or the Missus and I both have it. I’ve had virtually no coughing but she’s had one with lots of ‘product’ as she calls it.

For me it came on really quickly lunchtime today. Not long after she was notified she’d been nursing a patient who’s tested positive (I’m not necessarily connecting those two events). Lots of aches and chills and feeling completely shiite.

Senior staff at the hospital (small community) have been noticeably silent.

Still, - at least the morning cleaning gutters and facias was productive!

 

[MikeG.]

If you've got a productive cough, then you may well not have Covid 19. It's the driest of dry coughs. It's the least productive cough you'll ever have. Fingers crossed you've got one of the other lurgies still doing the rounds.

 

[RogerS]

If you've got a productive cough, then you may well not have Covid 19. It's the driest of dry coughs. It's the least productive cough you'll ever have. Fingers crossed you've got one of the other lurgies still doing the rounds.

I'm not so sure, Mike. There was a GP on the radio talking about her experience with Covid-19 and one of the things that stuck in my mind was her comment about how much she was coughing up and explained that it was the dead lung cells post-viral destruction.

 

[D_W]

sounds like a viral bronchitis cough (which does nothing other than keep you from sleeping for weeks and make sure a headache never goes away). Scans of bronchitis in the lungs look far different, though (constriction in the tubes rather than covering of the lungs with interference).

I've had bronchitis probably 75 times. I'd rather have it again than coronavirus.

Before Covid19, i constantly had to say (in public) that my spastic dry cough wasn't contagious ("it's just astma-related bronchitis, no worries"). It'll never be believed again now.

 

[FatmanG]

.......MikeG, I hope your recovery and that of your wife is still proceeding well?

I'm 100%, albeit easily fatigued, thanks. My wife is a day or two behind me, but much improved. She is complaining bitterly and often about having lost her sense of smell (welcome to my world). We both have a strange metallic taste in our mouths. We'd take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays as a substitute for what we've just been through.

My dad used to say that when he was having chemo

 

[D_W]

So do people exposed to radiation. I stuck a Bobby pin in a light socket when I was a young boy and had a metallic taste for a while. And burned fingers.

My p-doc back then was an old fellow named Harrison harbach. He had been dwight Eisenhower's personal physician. He said something to my father like "if it didn't kill him, he'll be tired for a while. Take him home and wait for him to not be tired".

 

[Racers]

I have it, I was feeling cold all yesterday and woke in the night with a tight feeling in my chest, sore throat, and feeling rough. I don’t have it bad luckily.

Pete

 

[MikeG.]

Sorry to hear you're not well, Pete. It is too early to say how badly you've got it, I'm afraid. It wasn't until about day 4 for me that I felt really bad, and it's not until about day 7 to 10 that you know whether or not you are going to get the pneumonia ....the thing you really don't want. The first couple of days I just felt off colour.

 

[Steve Maskery]

I'm really sorry to hear that, Pete.

 

[lurker]

Sorry to hear that Pete.
Guess you got it via all those students you mingle with.
Register on the website I posted a few pages back so the authorities can track it's spread.

Edit: here is but one reason why.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52053565

Obviously my advice (plea) is not just aimed at you Pete.

 

[Racers]

Thanks chaps, I am not looking forward to the next few days.

I spent all last week handing out laptops to staff so in a cramped basement surrounded by people no surprise I have it.

Pete

 

[RogerS]

Thanks chaps, I am not looking forward to the next few days.

I spent all last week handing out laptops to staff so in a cramped basement surrounded by people no surprise I have it.

Pete

Sorry to hear you have it, Pete. But silly question, I know....couldn't there have been some social-distancing put into effect..one-in...one-out ?

 

[lurker]

Thanks chaps, I am not looking forward to the next few days.

I spent all last week handing out laptops to staff so in a cramped basement surrounded by people no surprise I have it.

Pete

Sorry to hear you have it, Pete. But silly question, I know....couldn't there have been some social-distancing put into effect..one-in...one-out ?

Water under the bridge.
Pete works at a university.
Of all the places I have worked in, university was noticeable by their lack of common sense.
I suspect Pete had no say in the matter.

 

[RogerS]

Thanks chaps, I am not looking forward to the next few days.

I spent all last week handing out laptops to staff so in a cramped basement surrounded by people no surprise I have it.

Pete

Sorry to hear you have it, Pete. But silly question, I know....couldn't there have been some social-distancing put into effect..one-in...one-out ?

Water under the bridge.
Pete works at a university.
Of all the places I have worked in, university was noticeable by their lack of common sense.
I suspect Pete had no say in the matter.

Maybe water under the bridge but if it gives a wake-up call to someone else not be complacent then surely a good idea ?