Coronavirus

[Jake]

Exponentially is an abused word.
The money in my bank account grows exponentially, but at 0.01% or whatever it is right now, it's not alarming me.

That's compounded growth, not exponential growth. If your money grew exponentially, you'd be much richer than Bill Gates.

Look up grains of rice and chessboards!

I don't need to, thanks. I'm 67, I first saw the grains of rice and chessboard thing about 64 years ago(by a strange coincidence), and it's a bit boring by now. Having worked with binary stuff for over 40 years, I have an idea of what 2^64 looks like.
I think you'll find I'm right, if you care to do a bit of research. Compound interest is an example of exponential growth.

Yes, apologies, maths a bit rustier than yours , associated it with powers greater than 1. I guess the better point is that the r0 is not 0.01, but somewhere around 2, so not just exponential but more importantly a square just like the boring rice.

 

[ScaredyCat]

Herd immunity isn't the solution.

Trying to spread the load on already stretched NHS - brexit hasn't helped because many foreign NHS staff have returned to the COI and we haven't refilled their posts.

I'd be more concerned that the UK's method is more of a thinning of "the herd" - just think of all those pensions they wont need to pay out on, savings on those expensive operations that the NHS would otherwise have to pay for.

a mild version of the flu.

For anyone on steroid therapy, undergoing chemotherapy, with HIV infection, with diabetes, with cardiovascular disease, or with chronic pulmonary disease it's a lot more serious than a mild version of the flu (which only manages to kill 1%)

The (confirmed) fatality rates are high for people in those categories:

Cardiovascular disease 13.2%
Diabetes 9.2%
Chronic respiratory disease 8.0%
Hypertension 8.4%
Cancer 7.6%

The fatality rate for people over 80 who contract the virus is 21.9% , 70-80 it's 8% those are not insignificant numbers.


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[Droogs]

besides if all the oldies die, whose gonna vote for Boris next time :-k

 

[Phil Pascoe]

The mods are an unknown and distant force on this forum it seems. Bizarre action.

To be fair, they have more than their fair share of crepe to deal with without a shortage of toilet rolls.
I wondered why the two threads hadn't been joined up before - it's not as if it's sharpening or flattening something.

 

[thetyreman]

thought this was good about facemasks:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-51 ... ually-work

 

[Phil Pascoe]

I use Dettol because of a long term problem - I can't get it because idiots are hoarding it.

 

[Cordy]

As UN doctors sift through 20 million corpses

A trend emerges -- Their hands, spotlessly clean.... all of them

 

[Woody2Shoes]

besides if all the oldies die, whose gonna vote for Boris next time :-k

Yeah, shame we couldn't have had the brexit referendum next year.... (homer)

 

[RogerS]

.....
And we're having a panic attack ..... over by some accounts, a mild version of the flu.

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I think you might have missed the doctor on R4 talking about her experiences of catching it. I thought I wanted to catch it early and beat the rush. Now I simply don't want it.

 

[Andy Kev.]

I refuse to get involved in panic buying or "hamstering" as the Germans call it.

Two things seem to be flying off the shelves: toilet paper rolls. A bit odd: I could understand it if one of the symptoms was diarrhoea but people can be strange.

The really baffling one is flour for baking bread. I saw one woman coming out of the supermarket this morning with a shrink wrapped pack of about 10 bags. Apparently, people are scared of picking up the bug when they go to the bakery. I don't get that because you see them bringing out the trays of hot rolls which are tipped into the baskets/under the counter glass. Then the ladies at the counter put on gloves to pop them in paper bags, so they never get handled.

I imagine that a lot of housewives will come to regret this as freshly baked bread is very nice indeed and some families might start demanding it as the norm.

 

[Trevanion]

I think you might have missed the doctor on R4 talking about her experiences of catching it. I thought I wanted to catch it early and beat the rush. Now I simply don't want it.

That's why I said "Some accounts". Some people will have a bad time, some people will have a far worse time. I suspect if people have never had a disease or virus in their life it will be the worst thing they'll ever experience, myself included. My main point really was there is far worse happening on the planet right now comparatively, it's just because it's happening in the first world rather than solely the third people are crying bloody panic and clearing all the shelves everywhere which is quite a nice luxury to have really, because those poor sods in Africa never had anything on the shelves to panic buy anyway.

I'm still fairly optimistic not much will actually happen and there is a humungous amount of scaremongering going on, but it's early yet and I may be eating my hat before long, perhaps coughing at the same time.

 

[RogerS]

.... but it's early yet and I may be eating my hat before long, ...

If the panic buying continues .....

 

[RogerS]

"People in Britain aged over 70 will be instructed soon by the government to stay in strict isolation for four months as part of a planned response to coronavirus, broadcaster ITV's political editor said."

Sod that for a game of soldiers. No chance. Too much to do.

EDIT: And what are they proposing for couples both of whom are over-70. Living in rural areas. Or in cities.

 

[ScaredyCat]

Apparently, people are scared of picking up the bug when they go to the bakery. I don't get that because you see them bringing out the trays of hot rolls which are tipped into the baskets/under the counter glass. Then the ladies at the counter put on gloves to pop them in paper bags, so they never get handled

Places like Morrisons/Sainsbury's allow you to 'pick and mix' from open containers.

Even if there were no virus, I'd never use them but some people might just consider it safer. When I make bread, typically it's got 500g of flour in it and the results are eaten within a day. 10 bags of flour doesn't sound a lot if you're not going back to a supermarket any time soon.

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[ScaredyCat]

"People in Britain aged over 70 will be instructed soon by the government to stay in strict isolation for four months as part of a planned response to coronavirus, broadcaster ITV's political editor said."

Sod that for a game of soldiers. No chance. Too much to do.

I wonder, will any care packages contain wood and glue?

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[johnfarris]

I think this chap sums up the current situation perfectly
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aox7CeO ... e=emb_logo

 

[Phil Pascoe]

I have had measles which very nearly killed me, anaphylactic shock which very nearly killed me, appendicitis which nearly killed me, two doses of double pneumonia, serious flu and eight digit and limb amputations. I have high blood pressure, arthritis, gout, diabetes and an enlarged prostrate. Only the good die young.

 

[Trevanion]

Only the good die young.

It's pre-emptive karma for selling blunt chisels, Phil...

But seriously, that's a hell of a medical history.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

I get my money's worth.

 

[MusicMan]

I have too much to do, too, but I don't see myself achieving much if I die from the virus (high risk group here too). I admire your willingness to take one for the team, though.

We can't get rid of the virus before a year (vaccine development) or a few months (antiviral drug testing). We don't know positively if the herd immunity idea will work, but I think that actually it is our only chance. It can probably be delayed by the measures being introduced, and not overwhelming the NHS is required for us to have that chance. If we go about our normal lives, a lot of the most vulnerable will catch it and die and clog up the ICUs. The less vulnerable will contribute to the immunity pool without suffering many symptoms. If the vulnerable are isolated till the peak is passed (which is when herd immunity is a maximum) then we can mingle again with little risk (and with a health service that can cope again.

In case you think that I am supporting Boris and Co I think he and his gang are total twits. But the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Adviser and their staffs are top-notch.