Compared to the UK my trips are longer, slower, relatively little in cities. Mainly on country roads with little traffic. To pop to the nearest shop is a 60km round trip. Other than that trips are between 200km and 600km. Today for example is 550km. Our 2 cars together do 80 000 km per year.Rorschach":2j7tndgj said:
Electric vehicles
- Thread starter Woodchips2
- Start date
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Sideways":8t4nr358 said:
Do more research on that one! The meat industry is being targeted with misinformation by militant vegetarians, vegans and PETA (bleurgh! I hate to even mention them, they disgust me)
Sideways":8t4nr358 said:
When public transport is as fast, cheap and efficient as my car then maybe, at the moment it just isn't an option for the vast majority of people. That's why I believe in the self driving electric taxi scheme I mentioned earlier in this thread. Public transport will never serve the entire country like cars can.
nev
Established Member
A number of things spring to mind. Rambling in no particular order..
So charging points now outnumber petrol stations - but not petrol pumps I think.
If we say an average fast charge takes 30 minutes.
Average 'local' petrol station has 2 rows of 2 pumps giving 8 service points and an average filling time of 5 minutes per car that gives us 12 x 8 = 96 /2 = 48 .
so 48 petrol 'charging' points verses 8 EV per station. And that's just the little stations.
But then again there won't be any local fuel stations anymore unless they can offer a cafe and restrooms to their waiting customers. but then they'll need another 48 service points installed in their small forecourt to get the same amount of customers per day.
So no local fuel stations. Where will we buy our wives Christmas presents now?
I've never had the money to buy a new or even nearly new car. Apart from an inheritance I have never spent more than 4 grand on a car, which are usually about 8 or ten years old. So I and millions of others will no longer be able to afford a car. So I'll have to move from my semi rural area cos there's no public transport and move into town which I can't afford to do because housing costs more. Of course my house will be worth even less because there's no public transport and not being in one the more desirable areas will reduce the possible purchaser pool to a much smaller number.
If I can find a car that's within my price range chances are the batteries will be either pippered or on lease from the manufacturer (a la Renault), so more cost there, and of course all vehicles now being electric with no gas guzzlers to fund the road licence that won't be free anymore I'm sure.
Servicing etc compared to ICE vehicles. Apart from oil, plugs and filters you still have brakes, bearings and the rest of the running gear to wear out and require servicing. Having to have any major engine repairs is not a service cost, its a repair, same as if your electric motor, control box or magic stick packed in. And do you think the manufacturers are going to give up the lucrative after sales service and maintenance business - I think not! There will still be hefty service charges they just won't involve oil.
Forget classic cars, motorbikes, tractors etc as the cost of fuel from any remaining fuel stations will no doubt be extortionate and probably illegal. The flying Scotsman and its ilk will probably be electrified and have external audio systems to inspire the next generation of trainspotters.
All those trucks on the motorway and around town suppling goods to whoever - I'm sure we could do without them anyway because how will our fruit and veg and clothes ant TVs get to us from half way round the world anyway because the ships won't be allowed to dock or refuel because their mpg figures are slightly worse than my motorbike, which I cant take into certain cities even today because its pre euro 4 emissions, even though it emits less than most cars that are allowed.
etc etc
In short, if you're either rich or a city dweller you'll be fine, everyone else - you're ......ed. :mrgreen:
So charging points now outnumber petrol stations - but not petrol pumps I think.
If we say an average fast charge takes 30 minutes.
Average 'local' petrol station has 2 rows of 2 pumps giving 8 service points and an average filling time of 5 minutes per car that gives us 12 x 8 = 96 /2 = 48 .
so 48 petrol 'charging' points verses 8 EV per station. And that's just the little stations.
But then again there won't be any local fuel stations anymore unless they can offer a cafe and restrooms to their waiting customers. but then they'll need another 48 service points installed in their small forecourt to get the same amount of customers per day.
So no local fuel stations. Where will we buy our wives Christmas presents now?
I've never had the money to buy a new or even nearly new car. Apart from an inheritance I have never spent more than 4 grand on a car, which are usually about 8 or ten years old. So I and millions of others will no longer be able to afford a car. So I'll have to move from my semi rural area cos there's no public transport and move into town which I can't afford to do because housing costs more. Of course my house will be worth even less because there's no public transport and not being in one the more desirable areas will reduce the possible purchaser pool to a much smaller number.
If I can find a car that's within my price range chances are the batteries will be either pippered or on lease from the manufacturer (a la Renault), so more cost there, and of course all vehicles now being electric with no gas guzzlers to fund the road licence that won't be free anymore I'm sure.
Servicing etc compared to ICE vehicles. Apart from oil, plugs and filters you still have brakes, bearings and the rest of the running gear to wear out and require servicing. Having to have any major engine repairs is not a service cost, its a repair, same as if your electric motor, control box or magic stick packed in. And do you think the manufacturers are going to give up the lucrative after sales service and maintenance business - I think not! There will still be hefty service charges they just won't involve oil.
Forget classic cars, motorbikes, tractors etc as the cost of fuel from any remaining fuel stations will no doubt be extortionate and probably illegal. The flying Scotsman and its ilk will probably be electrified and have external audio systems to inspire the next generation of trainspotters.
All those trucks on the motorway and around town suppling goods to whoever - I'm sure we could do without them anyway because how will our fruit and veg and clothes ant TVs get to us from half way round the world anyway because the ships won't be allowed to dock or refuel because their mpg figures are slightly worse than my motorbike, which I cant take into certain cities even today because its pre euro 4 emissions, even though it emits less than most cars that are allowed.
etc etc
In short, if you're either rich or a city dweller you'll be fine, everyone else - you're ......ed. :mrgreen:
AJB Temple
Finely figured
I don't disagree with the essence of that Nev. It is very easy for politicians to tell us how it will be by 2035, but there need to be a lot of changes before this vision is realised.
However, your logic on charging stations is flawed. At present, most of us early adopters of EVs can charge them at home. Mine came with a Tesla charging station, that is in my garage. Same for my partner. Although we are dead mean and tend to use superchargers as they are free for us, it is very easy and cheap to just plug the car in every night when I get home. It is timed to use economy 7 electricity which in our case starts at 1am and it costs very little (pence) to top the car up most days.
Hence anyone who has an off street facility of any kind, can leave home in the morning with a full battery. In practice what this means is many people - anyone who mainly does less than 200 miles a day, will hardly ever have to visit a charging station. I only visit charging stations when I am doing long trips.
The conventional garage experience will disappear anyway. Charging stations are already being installed in supermarkets, restaurants, car parks and street stations (like a parking meter). The tech will find you one that is free and guide you to it (Tesla does this now). Every car sales garage will have a set of charging bays. I went to the Tesla place in Park Royal this week and they have about 30 bays. Some of these charge at 250Kw. As fast chargers become more universal (other manufacturers are miles behind) charging times will drop to 15 minutes.
For heavy duty users, your 5 minute fill assumption is also off the mark. My Q7 has a tank of about 110 litres I think. My fill up experience can easily extend to 15 minutes, including paying. And that assumes the people in front are not buying vapes and lottery tickets....
We need to re-calibrate our thinking as the infrastructure need is radically different and in many ways much easier to deliver as cabling is fairly universal and there is no need for diesel and petrol to be shipped about in tankers.
There will also be far greater pricing equality on EV fuel I expect.
There are other benefits. Electric vehicles will be safer. Mine is bristling with cameras. It will prevent me from changing lane in the path of a hazard, or run into the back of a lorry, or hitting a pedestrian or animal who steps out. Sentinel systems photograph anyone who touches the car and gives a warning. Intelligent cruise control and regenerative braking can be used for entire journeys and will maintain an exact safety gap. This even works in stop start motorway traffic down to a complete standstill. If you start dropping off to sleep the car will wake you up. Lane control keeps you dead centre of lane, or will give wider berth or brake if someone infringes on the lane. If someone pulls out in front unexpectedly, the car deals with it (a bit scary). The tech updates are coming thick and fast and in 10 years we will see EVs with even more massive intrinsic safety. Much of this can be retro added at trivial cost as long as the base car has suitable cameras and sensors.
It is also easier to make EV passenger cells safer. All of the heavy stuff - battery and electric motors - are down at axle level. This makes engineering crush zones much easier, and the days of engines being slammed back into your legs will be over. Many EV's have a front and rear boot. It is feasible to have a big airbag at the front, ahead of the driver and passenger.
Complex transmission systems and stuff like twin or multiple hydrostatic clutches are redundant. Electric motors are easily and accurately independently controlled. Much simpler. Much cheaper to engineer. 100% torque (near enough) available instantly as well.
It's a bit big brother-ish. But it is the future. We need to start learning to change. The early adopters like me always pay a massive premium, but prices will come down.
However, your logic on charging stations is flawed. At present, most of us early adopters of EVs can charge them at home. Mine came with a Tesla charging station, that is in my garage. Same for my partner. Although we are dead mean and tend to use superchargers as they are free for us, it is very easy and cheap to just plug the car in every night when I get home. It is timed to use economy 7 electricity which in our case starts at 1am and it costs very little (pence) to top the car up most days.
Hence anyone who has an off street facility of any kind, can leave home in the morning with a full battery. In practice what this means is many people - anyone who mainly does less than 200 miles a day, will hardly ever have to visit a charging station. I only visit charging stations when I am doing long trips.
The conventional garage experience will disappear anyway. Charging stations are already being installed in supermarkets, restaurants, car parks and street stations (like a parking meter). The tech will find you one that is free and guide you to it (Tesla does this now). Every car sales garage will have a set of charging bays. I went to the Tesla place in Park Royal this week and they have about 30 bays. Some of these charge at 250Kw. As fast chargers become more universal (other manufacturers are miles behind) charging times will drop to 15 minutes.
For heavy duty users, your 5 minute fill assumption is also off the mark. My Q7 has a tank of about 110 litres I think. My fill up experience can easily extend to 15 minutes, including paying. And that assumes the people in front are not buying vapes and lottery tickets....
We need to re-calibrate our thinking as the infrastructure need is radically different and in many ways much easier to deliver as cabling is fairly universal and there is no need for diesel and petrol to be shipped about in tankers.
There will also be far greater pricing equality on EV fuel I expect.
There are other benefits. Electric vehicles will be safer. Mine is bristling with cameras. It will prevent me from changing lane in the path of a hazard, or run into the back of a lorry, or hitting a pedestrian or animal who steps out. Sentinel systems photograph anyone who touches the car and gives a warning. Intelligent cruise control and regenerative braking can be used for entire journeys and will maintain an exact safety gap. This even works in stop start motorway traffic down to a complete standstill. If you start dropping off to sleep the car will wake you up. Lane control keeps you dead centre of lane, or will give wider berth or brake if someone infringes on the lane. If someone pulls out in front unexpectedly, the car deals with it (a bit scary). The tech updates are coming thick and fast and in 10 years we will see EVs with even more massive intrinsic safety. Much of this can be retro added at trivial cost as long as the base car has suitable cameras and sensors.
It is also easier to make EV passenger cells safer. All of the heavy stuff - battery and electric motors - are down at axle level. This makes engineering crush zones much easier, and the days of engines being slammed back into your legs will be over. Many EV's have a front and rear boot. It is feasible to have a big airbag at the front, ahead of the driver and passenger.
Complex transmission systems and stuff like twin or multiple hydrostatic clutches are redundant. Electric motors are easily and accurately independently controlled. Much simpler. Much cheaper to engineer. 100% torque (near enough) available instantly as well.
It's a bit big brother-ish. But it is the future. We need to start learning to change. The early adopters like me always pay a massive premium, but prices will come down.
Sheffield Tony
Ghost of the disenchanted
Many of those other benefits are not specific to electric vehicles. Petrol cars also bristle with cameras if you choose that. Lane control or at least warning is fairly common, automatic breaking if you are too close etc.
AJB Temple
Finely figured
Rorschach - I am aware of this and have given full disclosure so you don't need to keep commenting along these lines. The point I am making is this stuff filters down quite quickly to much more affordable cars. The tech is much the same on the much cheaper model 3 - but is an upgrade extra (as it is on the X and S).
Tony I agree. I had a BMW M4 convertible until a short while ago (great car) and the tech was way better than Tesla. The collision avoidance systems, night vision, auto full beam, head up display, auto wipers etc were all much superior. My Tesla had no HUD available. The BMW parking system with a virtual overhead camera was massively better. But manufacturers, of necessity in the UK and EU, will focus more and more on EV and some of the tech is EV specific. EV is the platform for auto driving (a pipe dream at the moment - ignore media rubbish from people who never use it) and that requires a LOT of cameras. Manufactures need to deal with bad weather issues and dirt, and sun blinding issues with them. It's early days.
Tony I agree. I had a BMW M4 convertible until a short while ago (great car) and the tech was way better than Tesla. The collision avoidance systems, night vision, auto full beam, head up display, auto wipers etc were all much superior. My Tesla had no HUD available. The BMW parking system with a virtual overhead camera was massively better. But manufacturers, of necessity in the UK and EU, will focus more and more on EV and some of the tech is EV specific. EV is the platform for auto driving (a pipe dream at the moment - ignore media rubbish from people who never use it) and that requires a LOT of cameras. Manufactures need to deal with bad weather issues and dirt, and sun blinding issues with them. It's early days.
Terry - Somerset
Established Member
EVs are very close to becoming mainstream. Whilst Tesla needs really to be compared to high end BMW and Audi motors, a more relevant comparison for most would be the cost of (say) a Nisssan Leaf at around £24k, with around £18-20k for a basic similar size Ford Focus.
A FF sized EV with a 250 mile range is approx £35k - Nissan, Hyundai etc. The FF close in performance is around £28-30k
The assumption that EV costs will continue to fall over the next few years is, I believe, correct. For a fairly average annual mileage of (say) 12000 at 50mpg the fuel bill will be approx £1300 pa. Electric costs will be around £300. A saving of £1000 pa.
In very simple terms, leaving maintenance, insurance etc aside, the extra upfront costs of around £5-8000 represent 5-8 years savings. Very close to a rational alternative for many providing range anxiety is overcome. That's why we need early adopters who can afford to take the risk and pay the price to get the ball rolling!
However for those with greater budgetary constraints there will be a lag of several years before current technology is available in reasonable volumes on the second hand car markets. So ICE will be in demand for a while.
Additionally we may expect existing conventional manufacturers to be challenged by EVs. Some will make the transition but many won't. Therefore expect some good ICE deals as manufacturers will feel pressurised into using spare capacity and cutting costs in R&D.
A FF sized EV with a 250 mile range is approx £35k - Nissan, Hyundai etc. The FF close in performance is around £28-30k
The assumption that EV costs will continue to fall over the next few years is, I believe, correct. For a fairly average annual mileage of (say) 12000 at 50mpg the fuel bill will be approx £1300 pa. Electric costs will be around £300. A saving of £1000 pa.
In very simple terms, leaving maintenance, insurance etc aside, the extra upfront costs of around £5-8000 represent 5-8 years savings. Very close to a rational alternative for many providing range anxiety is overcome. That's why we need early adopters who can afford to take the risk and pay the price to get the ball rolling!
However for those with greater budgetary constraints there will be a lag of several years before current technology is available in reasonable volumes on the second hand car markets. So ICE will be in demand for a while.
Additionally we may expect existing conventional manufacturers to be challenged by EVs. Some will make the transition but many won't. Therefore expect some good ICE deals as manufacturers will feel pressurised into using spare capacity and cutting costs in R&D.
EV + self driving cars is the game changer in my mind. Uber is as close to as convenient as owning a car but more expensive per mile. Eliminate the driver and you can get per mile costs significantly lower than the average per mile cost of a personal car.
Fitz.
Fitz.
Bodgers
Established Member
Renault was the only company leasing the battery separately as an option, nobody else does that. And even now they have gone off that idea.Tris":2lgzk3nm said:
If you are leasing the car for 2-3 years it's a non issue, but typically manufacturers are doing 10 year warranties on the battery. If you stay off the rapid chargers it could last a lot longer than that.
Sent from my Redmi Note 5 using Tapatalk
Sheffield Tony
Ghost of the disenchanted
Is it just me who is irritated by the term "range anxiety" - it makes it sound like it is all in your head, your thinking. Nothing physical. Not like a genuine limitation that deserves consideration. Almost belittles those who might be concerned about it.
AJB is right about driverless cars. The hype is far ahead of reality. They will not be with us for a long time. You've now heard it from a user of one of the most automated road cars of the moment, and someone with a DPhil in robotics :wink:
AJB is right about driverless cars. The hype is far ahead of reality. They will not be with us for a long time. You've now heard it from a user of one of the most automated road cars of the moment, and someone with a DPhil in robotics :wink:
Nigel Burden
Established Member
Self driving cars are an anathema too me. As a retired driving instructor and ex qualified observer for the Institute of Advanced Motorists, I absolutely hate the idea of control being taken away from me. Our Skoda Octavia has cruise control as do most modern cars. Why do you need cruise control? You already have it. It's called the right foot.
Nigel.
Nigel.
Bodgers
Established Member
A true luddite at work!Nigel Burden":1lcf1zdi said:
Love the adaptive cruise on my current car.
nev
Established Member
Google and Facebook doing their thing, just had this ad on FB
https://dollydubre.myshopify.com/collec ... world-wild
I'm almost tempted to order one just to see if a) it turns up and b) how dangerous it actually is if it does :shock:
edit: for those who don't have the link its one of these for $99 delivered!
https://dollydubre.myshopify.com/collec ... world-wild
I'm almost tempted to order one just to see if a) it turns up and b) how dangerous it actually is if it does :shock:
edit: for those who don't have the link its one of these for $99 delivered!
Attachments
Bodgers
Established Member
I would have sort of agreed with you a while ago.Sheffield Tony":310reenv said:
But if you learn about the shear amount of data gathering Tesla are doing on their cars and the decisions they are making every minute of every day, they are amassing a huge amount of data (including capture of GPS, car parameters and video) that can inform machine learning processes to help drive future algorithms.
As a Tesla driver you are training an AI algorithm.
It might not happen in the short term, but 10 years out I wouldn't be surprised it was fairly close.
The main issues are about less than perfect conditions, snow, heavy rain, fog etc. that make it difficult for full autonomy -.but even humans in these scenarios basically use "positive optimistic" planning to drive on, the assumption being that there isn't anything 100m ahead in the fog that they might hit.
RogerS
Established Member
Nigel Burden
Established Member
Bodgers":2qirwjik said:
Another thing, EVs are automatics. I hate automatics, they only have two pedals. That means that I can't double de clutch, hell and toe etc.
Nigel.
Nigel Burden
Established Member
RogerS":a6cc0ky0 said:
What's wrong with drivers just paying attention. :roll:
Nigel.
RogerS
Established Member
Bodgers":3gcvqmar said:
Um..not everyone and especially those who haven't become brain-dead relying on tech. You know...the kind of muppets who go hill-walking without a map and think they will rely on their phone. Or the muppets creating queues at the Heathrow Express while they fiddle about with their phones trying to find the ticket. Or the muppets who can't be bothered to get off their fat arrises to turn the light off but ask Alexa to do it. Or the muppets walking down the pavement, head down focussed on a tiny little screen, twitting away and expecting other people to get out of their way....hmmph..I don't.
Hell in a handbasket.
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