Electric vehicles

[RogerS]

.... Electric vehicles will be safer. .....

Ah yes. All that clever hi-tech

What's wrong with drivers just paying attention. :roll:

Nigel.

Precisely.

 

[Rorschach]

EV + self driving cars is the game changer in my mind. Uber is as close to as convenient as owning a car but more expensive per mile. Eliminate the driver and you can get per mile costs significantly lower than the average per mile cost of a personal car.

Fitz.

Exactly my earlier suggestion to replace public transport with a self driving EV network.

 

[Bodgers]

.....
The main issues are about less than perfect conditions, snow, heavy rain, fog etc. that make it difficult for full autonomy -.but even humans in these scenarios basically use "positive optimistic" planning to drive on, the assumption being that there isn't anything 100m ahead in the fog that they might hit.

Um..not everyone and especially those who haven't become brain-dead relying on tech. You know...the kind of muppets who go hill-walking without a map and think they will rely on their phone. Or the muppets creating queues at the Heathrow Express while they fiddle about with their phones trying to find the ticket. Or the muppets who can't be bothered to get off their fat arrises to turn the light off but ask Alexa to do it. Or the muppets walking down the pavement, head down focussed on a tiny little screen, twitting away and expecting other people to get out of their way....hmmph..I don't.

Hell in a handbasket.

I think you are confusing convenience with unwise decision making.

One day there will be fully autonomous cars, ones without any driver involvement, no steering wheels etc. They will be safer than driver operated ones. That's not a bad thing. That's not somebody being daft with technology.

 

[Bodgers]

.... Electric vehicles will be safer. .....

Ah yes. All that clever hi-tech

https://insideevs.com/news/399122/tesla-technology-saves-life-falling-tree/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwjnq8btjeHnAhU1QRUIHa0fDQ4QFjAKegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw3MaBKx7bqMfcz6GXT5oIsN&ampcf=1

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thereg ... ot_driver/

 

[Droogs]

.... Electric vehicles will be safer. .....

Ah yes. All that clever hi-tech

Roger that is the exact sort of tactic I would expect from your best friend. As the phot says itself there is no evidence yet if it was on autonomous driving. In other circumstances that could be construed as libel.

also for those concerned about how long it takes to charge look at it this way. On average how many times to you go to a fuel station and put fuel in. Now think about how long it takes to leave your house, drive to the fuel station, fill up and drive back to the house. multiply that with how many times you do that a year and compare that to the 15 seconds it takes for you to plug the cable on the wall of your house into the car to charge each day. That is how much of Your time it takes on average to re-charge a BEV, the reason being you are not standing in the peeing rain and sleet or baking in the sun next to the car breathing in all the rubbish floating around the fuel station while you wait to get the amount you want. No instead you are in the house having a beer or playing with your kids, kissing the missus (if you have to) or down the shed sawing instead. Throw in the few odd times a year you do a long trip and just adjust how you plan a journey to include a bit more time to relax, eat well, or visit an attraction on the way while the car charges.

 

[Sheffield Tony]

It might not happen in the short term, but 10 years out I wouldn't be surprised it was fairly close.

:lol: Having been a researcher, when asked for when research ideas would become commercial reality, "10 years" was the standard code for "no idea, certainly not for the forseeable future".

The enthusiasm for driverless cars scares me. Back when I was at Uni, the trendy idea in software was formal methods - creating algorithms and software you could mathematically prove to do what you expected. For critical systems like aircraft, spaceflight etc. Now we propose to allow neural nets, which noone is quite sure of the basis for their decisions - to drive cars. Which are potentially lethal. Or in the case of Tesla, actually lethal. Twice IIRC.

 

[Bodgers]

It might not happen in the short term, but 10 years out I wouldn't be surprised it was fairly close.

:lol: Having been a researcher, when asked for when research ideas would become commercial reality, "10 years" was the standard code for "no idea, certainly not for the forseeable future".

The enthusiasm for driverless cars scares me. Back when I was at Uni, the trendy idea in software was formal methods - creating algorithms and software you could mathematically prove to do what you expected. For critical systems like aircraft, spaceflight etc. Now we propose to allow neural nets, which noone is quite sure of the basis for their decisions - to drive cars. Which are potentially lethal. Or in the case of Tesla, actually lethal. Twice IIRC.

Yes, but the difference here with the 10 years is that significant progress is already been made. It's already here (in a basic form) and incrementaly improving.

Formal methods in software is a way of specifying and formally defining requirements. I'm a software dev, and these days we are specifying things with a variety of methods, but what we are also doing is using a lot of programmatic automated testing, much of which is written before the actual code is written - to test for what you requirements are.

That's a different thing to what your actual algorithm that runs the cars is doing. You can test using whatever method you choose.

You can come up with whatever fears and concerns you have, but ultimately, it WILL happen, just as cars succeeded as transport originally - despite misgivings at the time that resulted in having to have an individual walk in front of a car with a flag at no more than a few miles an hour.

 

[AJB Temple]

There is a lot of media nonsense about Tesla's and similar. I have seen photos in the press of people driving along hands free eating breakfast and such like. It is all nonsense written by people with no actual knowledge.

You cannot drive a Tesla in auto drive for more than about 20 seconds without putting one hand on the wheel and applying slight (circa 1 degree) steering force. Its a bit annoying actually but the system forces you to keep in contact with the wheel.

And Roger, you need to get the blinkers off. There is more than one way of driving. It so happens that I did 10 years as a national observer on cars and bikes, have an IAM masters (distinction), and a racing licence and am still a very keen motorcyclist. My favourite car is a red V12 and is used in summer ....I get the real driving thing. But I also get the super smooth limo experience of a silent, super comfortable EV.

In this country driving pleasure has been greatly reduced by cameras and congestion and lots of "Nationals" changed to 40's. At times a car is just a utility vehicle and there is benefit in letting it just do the job. Especially on tedious motorway runs and in heavy traffic.

If you live anywhere near Tunbridge Wells I will happily show you the two extremes. It is possible to like blondes and brunettes and even fiery redheads.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Some of you may already have seen this:



This is interesting as it will need all of the sensory and artificial intelligence of a driverless vehicle without a person actually having to sit inside. It should enable real world data on its capability and either (a) provide increased confidence that autonomous vehicles are now feasible or (b) that there is a lot of development still to be done.

There remains a risk that its unpredictable actions could cause an accident - but (a) the sensor data I assume would be held in a "black box" for analysis to identify the cause, and (b) the vehicle is small enough not to cause huge or life threatening damage to other road users (slow, small, lightweight)

 

[cookiemonster]

I look forward to the advent of driverless EVs. The pubs will be packed again.

 

[Rorschach]

also for those concerned about how long it takes to charge look at it this way. On average how many times to you go to a fuel station and put fuel in. Now think about how long it takes to leave your house, drive to the fuel station, fill up and drive back to the house.

Bit of a straw man there. I cannot remember the last time I made a specific trip out to get fuel. It is always combined with something else, almost always the weekly shopping which I have to do anyway, so a few minutes extra is no bother.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

It's interesting to see how the comments split into two main camps: for and against, early adopter Vs luddite. The language is being controlled, in that political correctness way, much like the climate change thing. "Range anxiety" has all the overtones of a debilitating mental disorder, much as "climate denier" is designed to conflate holocaust and climate, for denigration purposes.

Tesla as a company is fun, too. Hasn't made a profit, has some pretty questionable production and manufacturing processes, it's servicing and spares are deplorable (6-9 month wait for new body panels, allegedly), and yet is valued at insane levels, for no apparent reason. I will undoubtedly get some flack from the true believers for that last sentence. For example, Tesla make 7,000 cars in 7 days, whereas ford make 7,000 cars every 4 hours. Teslas's market capitalisation is the same as Ford and General Motors' combined value. What could possibly go wrong? https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/07/tesla-m ... china.html

My position is that I actually really want an electric vehicle because I can make my own electricity, but there is no way I'm going to buy one yet, because they just aren't up to snuff for my particular situation. And so I wait.

In the meantime, here's a little video to show what happens if you pop a nail into a lithium battery - makes you think.[youtube]xhhrtMYKANQ[/youtube]

I do wonder if, in time, the new fun sport will be nailgunning self-driving taxis. Urban yooff (or is it yoot?) will be entertaing themselves by lighting up the night sky with self-immolating pizza deliveries. All that facial recognition surveillance will be necessary to protect the corporate profits of Pizza Hut and McDonald's (is Pizza Hut still in existence? Not something I have ever partaken of)

 

[Rorschach]

My position is that I actually really want an electric vehicle because I can make my own electricity, but there is no way I'm going to buy one yet, because they just aren't up to snuff for my particular situation. And so I wait.

I think we agree there. I would love an EV, I think EV's are probably the future (even though I think Hydrogen fuel cells are likely superior from a practical standpoint) and I can see their many benefits.

However at the moment I cannot afford an EV and it cannot do everything that my car can do. Sure as many have said an EV can do maybe 95% of the things I do in my car, but that 5% is still very important.

 

[AJB Temple]

Completely agree about the Tesla valuation logic.

But....Ford et al are producing far more cars than we need. Maybe the market prices in ludicrous stock holding and the fact that used values are depressed because new stock is churned out at big discounts?

The market has a long track record of ascribing crazy values to companies with potential. Facebook springs to mind. I don't follow the stock but it has achieved a lot of monetisation capability and largely controls global messaging through its ownership of what's app.

Maybe the market thinks Elon Musk is a visionary and that he will eventually dominate the electric car industry.

I have spent most of my life in the finance and banking business one way or another. Share investing is a game of opposites: the seller thinks the price will go down. The buyer thinks it will go up. One of them is always wrong. Money is made from facilitation.

One think Musk has got right, is developing his infrastructure. He is miles ahead of the game there, and other manufacturers have struggled to catch up with vehicle development and failed to deal with the charging issue properly.

I still wonder if electric cars are a blip on the path to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Or even a universal magnetic rail system.

 

[Geoff_S]

Or even a universal magnetic rail system.

What, like a Scalextric ? That would be cool.

 

[Sheffield Tony]

I look forward to the advent of driverless EVs. The pubs will be packed again.

This touches on the interesting question of liability. If the manufacturer accepts full responsibility for the actions of the vehicle, and you are freed completely from being in charge of the vehicle, that would be a game changer. At the moment all the driver aids come with a warning that you are still in charge.

 

[RogerS]

.... Electric vehicles will be safer. .....

Ah yes. All that clever hi-tech

..... On average how many times to you go to a fuel station and put fuel in. Now think about how long it takes to leave your house, drive to the fuel station, fill up and drive back to the house.....

But I don't nor do most other people, I'd hazard a guess. You're driving en route somewhere and as a garage comes up you pull in and fill up. Daft to do what you suggest.

I still maintain that we are placing far too much reliance on technology. Just look at the Boeing 737 Max.

 

[RogerS]

...early adopter Vs luddite. ....

That's a very pejorative comparison. You're implying that being an early adopter is 'a good thing' and that not doing so makes one a luddite. That's not necessarily the case.

 

[Droogs]

also for those concerned about how long it takes to charge look at it this way. On average how many times to you go to a fuel station and put fuel in. Now think about how long it takes to leave your house, drive to the fuel station, fill up and drive back to the house.

Bit of a straw man there. I cannot remember the last time I made a specific trip out to get fuel. It is always combined with something else, almost always the weekly shopping which I have to do anyway, so a few minutes extra is no bother.

That is the whole point, as aBEV driver unless you are on a very long journey you never have to do a specific refueling journey because as part of the parking procedure you adopt (just like folding wing mirrors if you need to) you automatically plug it in and just go do something else. I don't go do the shopping which takes anything up to an hour depending how busy and then go refuel no I just plug in and go shop and then go home.

Now before anyone says "There's never enough charge points". That is total boollax it may happen occasionally but then is the pump free at every fuel station every time you go or have you ever had to wait. Besides as an example the local Tesco in partnership with VW put in a charge point around 7 months ago it had 4 points and I notice yesterday there are now 6. So these charge points are all obviously being monitored and the infrastructure upgraded in relation to real time use. But if that is not enough then have a look at NIO and how they are proposing to do things and actually are in China. In fact have a root around what the 40 or so BEV manufacturers in China are doing and what they are coming out with you will be amazed. Yeah Tesla may be all just now but in terms of affordability and usability the chineses are coming and they don't have the problems that western existing car makers have regarding legacy tooling etc. The chinese companies have taken full advantage of the fact that Tesla made all their patents for this tech royalty free, he just gave all advantage up to that point away. This is what "fossil-heads" or "dino burners" don't see or realize. Musk aint just in it to win it by making money, he is out to totally change human society and how we live as a civilization and he is bringing more and more people to his cause daily, especially those under 30 in terms of the moral eco crusade but also the well off as after all, how do the rich stay rich? Easy, they don't look at the size of the down payment or monthly costs on their own they look at total cost of ownership and buy the best but overall cheapest thing they can.
For those that can't afford a Tesla fine there are lots of asian cars coming that you will be able to afford and this will be because they are just like your current car but with an electric drive and none of the expensive software gizzmos as they are taking the really important bits from Tesla that will get people off of fossil fuels . MG reckon by the end of this year or early in next they will offer their car for around 20K with at least 250 mile range and on a lease if you want for around £300 a month. AT the moment you can lease an MG with a 160 mile 44KWh battery for £250. Are any of you going to honestly argue that that car would not meet the needs of the majority of the users of this forum taking the full costs of running a car for a year and the types of journeys most will do?

 

[RogerS]

.....
The main issues are about less than perfect conditions, snow, heavy rain, fog etc. that make it difficult for full autonomy -.but even humans in these scenarios basically use "positive optimistic" planning to drive on, the assumption being that there isn't anything 100m ahead in the fog that they might hit.

Um..not everyone and especially those who haven't become brain-dead relying on tech. You know...the kind of muppets who go hill-walking without a map and think they will rely on their phone. Or the muppets creating queues at the Heathrow Express while they fiddle about with their phones trying to find the ticket. Or the muppets who can't be bothered to get off their fat arrises to turn the light off but ask Alexa to do it. Or the muppets walking down the pavement, head down focussed on a tiny little screen, twitting away and expecting other people to get out of their way....hmmph..I don't.

Hell in a handbasket.

I think you are confusing convenience with unwise decision making.

Not at all. I'm thinking that when it all goes pear-shaped and, for example, you can't get a mobile signal and are there running around completely lost like headless chickens, I'll simply get out my paper map and away I go. This Gadarene push to place more and more reliance on tech will be humanities undoing.

And we haven't even begun to address the moral conundrum of autonomous cars. Does the car decide it will mow down that pedestrian to save the occupants of the car ?

Anyway, I need to go out and chop down a tree for the fire tonight :wink: