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Woodchips2

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Now that the Government has said the ban on selling petrol and diesel cars could be in 2035 or earlier I am wondering how it will affect our economy? For example the building industry where none of the electric vans seem capable of towing a trailer. Whereas it is common for a builder to bring a mini digger on site on a trailer towed behind a large van shall we see all plant having to be delivered by electric low loaders?

Another area is the caravan industry. I think you can currently buy a Tesla capable of towing a caravan but I suggest most caravan owners are not on a Tesla budget for their hobby. The caravan industry employs a lot of people in manufacture, selling and servicing and running sites. The Caravan and Motorhome Club has around 700,000 members. A big industry to see disappear.

By the time we get to 2035 I doubt whether I shall still be driving but our current lifestyle means we could probably manage with an electric vehicle. However what puts me off is the thought of being stuck on a long journey watching the battery power getting lower and lower and no charging point anywhere near. Imagine what it will be like in the Scottish Highlands, their tourism industry could just fade away.

I suppose a lot could change in 15 years but battery development doesn't seem to be developing quickly.

Anybody here drive an electric vehicle and have a more positive view of the future?

Regards Keith
 

Rorschach

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Well for a start that is a ban on the sale of new vehicles, so you can expect petrol/diesel cars to be on the road for at least 10 years after that.

You are right though, it's currently an unknown future for anything except cars and the caravan/camper van thing is something I have talked about before, I don't think it was on this forum though.

A much bigger issue than anything you have mentioned though is the simple problem of charging. At the moment there is insufficient infrastructure to charge large numbers of electric vehicles, not to mention the problems that will be faced by those that don't have a driveway or garage. You can't run an extension lead out of the 10th floor of a block of flats!
Battery technology will (and must) improve. My own personal opinion is that we need a briefcase style battery that can be removed and taken indoors for charging, this saves the need for installing large swathes of on street charge points. Then again I am also of the opinion that batteries are not the way forward, hydrogen fuel cells are.
 

Terry - Somerset

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A few thoughts:

Battery technology has improved with huge price reductions. In 2010 EV battery cost was about $800-1000 per KWh. Cost today is around $150. It is estimated that when the cost gets to around $100 per KWh and volumes increase that the cost of an EV will be similar to ICE.

Worth bearing in mind that 15 years ago the EV of choice (not that I would choose it) was the G-Wizz. The Nissan Leaf launched in 2011 was the first "normal" EV - battery only. It had a safe range of 60-80 miles. The typical EV today has a range of 150-250 miles and costs much the same as the original Leaf 9 years ago.

The average car commute is 10-12 miles. It would likely be possible to do the commute, school run, major shop and go out to see friends and still only need to recharge once a week!

Battery technology has also changed - leaving aside the complex chemical and physical science (which I don't understand) some batteries can be fast charged in around 30 minutes to 80% of capacity. Whether the future business model will be leased exchangable battery modules, or owned battery packs with the capacity for fast charging is up for grabs.

Concern has also be expressed about how additional charging points will be provided - necessary for flat dwellers etc. It is entirely feasible that government could mandate that:

- all workplace parking is provided with adequate charging points
- retailers will provide recharging points or customers will go elsewhere
- local delivery companies will switch to EV and recharge back at base
- local authorities could mandate recharging in all new developments
- council and private car parks could see recharging as an income stream

It's more about how badly we want to do it, not whether it is feasible. The remaining known unknowns are:

(a) overall electricity capacity increases - over what timescales
(b) driverless vehicles will fundamentally change behaviours
(c) exceptions for particular users - horses, caravans, farming, building etc
(d) rate of city and town centre environmental ICE bans
 

MusicMan

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I've just ordered a Leaf so will report soon! I don't envisage problems with recharging as I can do it at home, solar panels make it even cheaper and long journeys seem fine with planning. OTOH I am retired and few journeys are urgent or very long. It won't suit everyone right now but it won't be long before it will. As for vans, they are already appropriate for day workers such as carpenters, though not yet for delivery vehicles that do 500 miles a day.

The National Grid seems well prepared for the challenge. One point often overlooked is that when a good coverage of electric cars is obtained, the storage potential for the nation's electric cars is massive, equivalent to several power stations. Thus there is capability for surplus wind/solar etc power to be stored, and released at peak times. Tariffs and smart meters will enable this. If you think about it, on days when you just commute 20 miles or so, you can use your car to sell electricity back in the evenings and still recharge in the small hours when rates are low. In fact there is a large scale trial of this going on in the southeast and east Anglia - look up Octopus Powerloop.

Hydrogen may be the better solution for lorries and trains, but the development still has much further to go than BEVs. The infrastructure needs developing for the latter, sure, but adding charge points to garages, service stations and retail outlets is far cheaper and faster than building a hydrogen infrastructure.

I've taken a 2-year lease on the Leaf, and fully expect there to be many more choices when it is time for renewal.
 

Trainee neophyte

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There are a few 4x4 electric vehicles coming out (https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-pic ... ck-market/) and the mainstream manufacturers are all working on it, although battery life will be an issue for a couple of years yet. But that <<should>> solve the caravan and towing market. Maybe.

The UK consumed 47.1 billion litres of petrol/diesel in 2018. If you say petrol and diesel both contain the same amount of energy - 10kWh/litre (it's close enough for fag-packet calculations, but they don't), then that would equate to 471 billion kWh of new electricity required annually, in the new, green economy. Given the inefficiency of battery storage, it will need to be more than that, but never mind. If you pretend that the energy will be delivered evenly, 24 hours per day, then you need an extra 1.2 billion kWh per day. Sounds like a lot. A billion kWh is, I think, one TerraWatt hour (10¹² Watts), and the average nuclear power station puts out, let's say, 1,000 MWh, or one GigaWatt. You need 1,000 GigaWatts to make a TerraWatt, so the UK will need one thousand nuclear reactors, or equivalent solar/wind/wave installations, all running 24/7. No problem.

The above is just me thinking out loud, and I may have lost track of zeros, so feel free to put me right on the maths.
 

Blackswanwood

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I do not think this will have a negative impact on the economy and arguably it could have a positive impact.

Setting a deadline will focus minds on finding alternative solutions.

Not acting arguably is a drag on the economy - how many millions of GDP will be spent on compensating for the floods of the last few days and shoring up defences for the next time?

I will wager a shilling that if anyone is reading this in 2035 they will wonder what all the fuss was about ... and I’ll double up the bet that woodworkers will still be arguing about the best way to sharpen!
 

Rorschach

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As a related point, trains.

I was having a conversation recently about HS2.

I am totally against building HS2, not because I don't want better transport connections for the north and the south (though it will never help me living in the SW) but because it is a waste of money that will be all but useless when it is finished.

We are looking at 10 years before the first trains run and a projected build cost of up to 100billion.

In 10 years time driverless electric cars will be a fairly common feature on our roads. If that 100 billions were spent on improving roads for driverless technology as well as incentives for it's development then instead of HS2 we could have a network of driverless taxis. The could be booked to take you from your home directly to your destination, no faffing about getting to train stations that are nowhere near where you live or want to visit, no lugging bags around. Prices could be based on demand and run 24 hours a day, no expensive drivers or safety concerns about working hours etc. Instead of serving the major cities only this network would cover the entire UK making the problems of isolated elderly or rural communities a thing of the past.

Anyway that would be my plan if I were PM.
 

Just4Fun

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Terry - Somerset":117o4jhs said:
A few thoughts:

Battery technology has improved with huge price reductions.
Agreed. For those of us not familiar with EVs, think of the battery technology on computers, phones etc. These have improved greatly over the last couple of decades and I don't see why EV batteries aren't also much better and likely to improve further.

There is a lot of other stuff in your post that I agree with but I believe there is also a flaw in your thinking, Namely, you concentrate on the average case but this move will affect everyone so you have to look at the extremes, not the average.

The average car commute is 10-12 miles.
What about those who have longer commutes, in rural areas without little infrastructure between home and work, maybe in lower temperatures such as winter in the Scottish highlands where range drops dramatically ...
It is entirely feasible that government could mandate that:

- all workplace parking is provided with adequate charging points
I live in Finland and here many companies already provide electrical points for vehicles in their car parks. They have done this for years. These are used for engine heaters during winter rather than charging EVs but the idea is basically the same. This is fine for those who work in such places but doesn't help those who work in remote locations, perhaps a different location every day.
What about a forestry worker whose constantly-changing workplace is always in the middle of a forest miles from anywhere? Or road maintenance people repairing the road in the middle of nowhere? Or a builder working at building sites with potentially no power supply? It is entirely feasible that government would mandate that these locations are provided with adequate charging points but that doesn't make it possible.
 

loftyhermes

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In the late 90's when I worked at Groundwork Ashfield and Mansfield they had an electric Peugeot that had a range of 50 - 60 miles. Still had to put a gallon of petrol in every now and then for the heater though.
 

Woody2Shoes

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Trainee neophyte":1m3gfzpo said:
There are a few 4x4 electric vehicles coming out (https://www.fleetcarma.com/electric-pic ... ck-market/) and the mainstream manufacturers are all working on it, although battery life will be an issue for a couple of years yet. But that <<should>> solve the caravan and towing market. Maybe.

The UK consumed 47.1 billion litres of petrol/diesel in 2018. If you say petrol and diesel both contain the same amount of energy - 10kWh/litre (it's close enough for fag-packet calculations, but they don't), then that would equate to 471 billion kWh of new electricity required annually, in the new, green economy. Given the inefficiency of battery storage, it will need to be more than that, but never mind. If you pretend that the energy will be delivered evenly, 24 hours per day, then you need an extra 1.2 billion kWh per day. Sounds like a lot. A billion kWh is, I think, one TerraWatt hour (10¹² Watts), and the average nuclear power station puts out, let's say, 1,000 MWh, or one GigaWatt. You need 1,000 GigaWatts to make a TerraWatt, so the UK will need one thousand nuclear reactors, or equivalent solar/wind/wave installations, all running 24/7. No problem.

The above is just me thinking out loud, and I may have lost track of zeros, so feel free to put me right on the maths.
The thing is, about 60% of the energy in all that petrol/diesel was wasted. EVs are much more efficient at turning stored energy into useful motion, say 80-90%. The big challenge is decarbonising the generation and storage of electricity at grid scale. Installing charging points is little more complicated than connecting a new supply to anything else, ie trivial. The trick is ensuring that what feeds it is low or zero carbon sourced. My next car will be an EV.

Range anxiety is the same problem whatever the fuel.
 

lurker

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There will not be enough capacity to generate all the electricity we need, in fact we will run out of capacity very soon, even without all this extra demand.

A couple of national outages and we will suddenly have a new set of priorities!
 

Rorschach

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Woody2Shoes":2r8gqx3o said:
Range anxiety is the same problem whatever the fuel.
I have to disagree there. I have no range anxiety in my petrol car. On every trip I take I am never more than say 20 miles from a petrol station. I can run my tank to nearly nothing, pull into a petrol station and within 5 minutes I am fully fuelled and ready for another 400 miles.
We are going on a short break next week, not too far but further than the range of our car. In an electric car I would have range anxiety as there is not a suitable charge point at the destination. There is however a tesco supermarket about 10 minutes away so I will drive there, fill up and know I have plenty of petrol to come home again.
 

RogerS

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Reading these last few posts, I agree with Rorschach on all the points that he's made. In particular the difficulty for those living in towns and blocks of flats to find a charging point. It's bad enough them trying to find an actual parking place. In some residential streets in areas of West London, double-parking is the norm.

And if you then factor in the suggestion of 'selling back' your cars storage then that requires even more points to plug into. That's a non-starter IMO.

Perhaps solar panels on the cars roof ?
 

RogerS

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Western Power have made available a map showing the capacity of their sub-stations here https://www.westernpower.co.uk/ev-capac ... pplication

They make the point though that "Our modelling has not looked at individual services to properties so there may be local pinch points or upgrades which are not included in this representation." (My bold)

They also make available their Distribution Strategy for EV's in a pdf. Google "Western Power Distribution Electric Vehicle Strategy"
 

Woody2Shoes

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Rorschach":azmy9pqz said:
Woody2Shoes":azmy9pqz said:
Range anxiety is the same problem whatever the fuel.
I have to disagree there. I have no range anxiety in my petrol car. On every trip I take I am never more than say 20 miles from a petrol station. I can run my tank to nearly nothing, pull into a petrol station and within 5 minutes I am fully fuelled and ready for another 400 miles.
We are going on a short break next week, not too far but further than the range of our car. In an electric car I would have range anxiety as there is not a suitable charge point at the destination. There is however a tesco supermarket about 10 minutes away so I will drive there, fill up and know I have plenty of petrol to come home again.
You obviously haven't shared a car with mrs w2s! She likes to play chicken with me over who gets to buy petrol....
No, but really, evs are now becoming affordable with a 200 mile plus real world range and an ability to charge to 80% within about 30mins given the right charger. Evs aren't for everyone but they are becoming a no-brainer for more and more people very fast.
As I write this, only about 29% of nearly 40GW of GB electricity is coming from fossil fuels.
As for the 35% or so of British households who don't have a parking space, I think that public transport including autonomous, self-driving taxis, is the best answer. This is why our cities have buses/trams/tubes/trains and taxis. Neither of my adult children - who are city dwellers - own or want to own a car - they see car ownership as an expensive and underutilized liability.
 

Woody2Shoes

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Rorschach":8g2vn3od said:
Woody2Shoes":8g2vn3od said:
Range anxiety is the same problem whatever the fuel.
I have to disagree there. I have no range anxiety in my petrol car. On every trip I take I am never more than say 20 miles from a petrol station. I can run my tank to nearly nothing, pull into a petrol station and within 5 minutes I am fully fuelled and ready for another 400 miles.
We are going on a short break next week, not too far but further than the range of our car. In an electric car I would have range anxiety as there is not a suitable charge point at the destination. There is however a tesco supermarket about 10 minutes away so I will drive there, fill up and know I have plenty of petrol to come home again.
If you had an ev you could use something like this to plan your journey
https://www.zap-map.com/live/
 

Rorschach

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RogerS":yxonpyrh said:
Reading these last few posts, I agree with Rorschach on all the points that he's made. In particular the difficulty for those living in towns and blocks of flats to find a charging point. It's bad enough them trying to find an actual parking place. In some residential streets in areas of West London, double-parking is the norm.

And if you then factor in the suggestion of 'selling back' your cars storage then that requires even more points to plug into. That's a non-starter IMO.

Perhaps solar panels on the cars roof ?
Simply not enough surface area on the car to make any kind of useful quantity of electricity for driving the car. A whole day in full sunshine might be enough for mile if you are lucky.

The removal battery I mention would solve the flats problem, but the technology just isn't there at the moment, we need greater energy density in a battery to make it man portable.

What does work however is my self driving car suggestion I mentioned earlier. It doesn't matter then if you have no parking as you are booking the car on an as you need it basis and the car would charge itself at a central hub.
This system also removes the range problem as when you book the vehicle it would automatically reserve vehicles along the route that are already charged and you would switch vehicles as needed.
 
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