Coronavirus

[user22161]

Deaths are one aspect ...an important one, I agree.

But one needs to consider just how the economy will actually ever get started again. And how forgiving the public will be in perpetual lockdown.

Although fewer people are dying than during a good/bad flue outbreak it would have been far worse without the lock down so there's nothing in reality to forgive.

Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.

We need another BUY BRITISH campaign like we had a couple of decades (or was it longer) ago. Support our industry, **** the rest and get the place moving again.

 

[FatmanG]

One thing the lockdown guarantees is time to think. Maybe in the long run we can see a lot of good come out of an awful situation. Yes things are going to change, jobs, economy, businesses failing etc but we are a resourceful race and there will be new opportunities for people with the ideas. Its always been this way. I do hope that we as a country can come together and rebuild communities that were ruined through the Thatcher years. I am not blaming Thatcher nor making it political i just meant that as a nation there was a big change with industries like coal basically ending which changed communities. Maybe the world will return to being a much bigger place and the pace of life slows down. I don't know

 

[Blackswanwood]

Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.

Why does it not effect the bankers Graham?

 

[user22161]

Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.

Why does it not effect the bankers Graham?

I didn't say that. I said "the economy as it effects the most of us". Obviously the bankers (who are a minority of the population) do a necessary job but I couldn't care less if they lose their annual bonus and have to forgo the new Merc or boat. As things decline, the vultures among them stand to make even more money from interest charged to the struggling businesses and individuals in debt because of the situation.

I'm far more worried about the thousands of small and large UK businesses and the people they employ, many of whom won't survive.

 

[Jake]

The Reuters report on the scientific advice etc is quite interesting:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... abRHCzQ9n0

Sure is, especially combined with LSHTM's paper summarising what they modelled and when. Mr Edmunds' full story will be even more interesting in time.

 

[Lons]

The Reuters report on the scientific advice etc is quite interesting:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... abRHCzQ9n0

very interesting Keith, thanks for the link.

 

[D_W]

Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.

Why does it not effect the bankers Graham?

I didn't say that. I said "the economy as it effects the most of us". Obviously the bankers (who are a minority of the population) do a necessary job but I couldn't care less if they lose their annual bonus and have to forgo the new Merc or boat. As things decline, the vultures among them stand to make even more money from interest charged to the struggling businesses and individuals in debt because of the situation.

I'm far more worried about the thousands of small and large UK businesses and the people they employ, many of whom won't survive.

I wonder what those struggling businesses would do without the ability to borrow.

I also wonder what all of the rank and file employees of banks deserve in terms of attitudes toward them. I think there's probably an antiquated view that banks are mostly made of executives and business deconstruction hawks. There are some of those, but I'd bet the bulk of the revenues go to shareholders (have a pension or live in a municipality that has one?) and rank and file employees with a few getting large cuts - but the amounts they get being relatively insignificant in terms of the expenses that bank clients incur.

Take away the banks and the groups who need capital or operating loans will end up dealing with folks who ask for a whole lot more in turn.

Here in the states, most of the banks and mortgage originators aren't looking to give you 5 dollars and have you give them back 6 tomorrow -they're securitizing debt and thing it to open market lenders (as in, your savings or fixed asset allocations from pension plans). The banks don't want to hold the loans, they want to originate them and move them on to groups who have the money to lend. Margin.

They operate in their own interest, of course, but check out the post about airlines. Is there something more noble about them? What about other businesses that require constant subsidy that you don't have the ability to decline financing?

 

[Blackswanwood]

Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.

Why does it not effect the bankers Graham?

I didn't say that. I said "the economy as it effects the most of us". Obviously the bankers (who are a minority of the population) do a necessary job but I couldn't care less if they lose their annual bonus and have to forgo the new Merc or boat. As things decline, the vultures among them stand to make even more money from interest charged to the struggling businesses and individuals in debt because of the situation.

I'm far more worried about the thousands of small and large UK businesses and the people they employ, many of whom won't survive.

I think you may be referring to the rich rather than just bankers. I don’t want to turn this into a debate about the relative value or ethics of the banking system but if I recall correctly the retail banking sector employs north of 200,000 people in the UK. I wouldn’t call that a minority. Most are not enjoying the lifestyle you mention and while there may be others more at risk from the economic impact of the current situation they still face the risks of unemployment due to down sizing in a post C19 environment.

I too feel for small businesses and the self employed.

 

[SBJ]

.........The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.........

Firstly, are we going to be testing in say France to make up the additional 7.2 million? The UK population is 67.8 million.

Hyperbole?

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

 

[RogerS]

Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.

Why does it not effect the bankers Graham?

I didn't say that. I said "the economy as it effects the most of us". Obviously the bankers (who are a minority of the population) do a necessary job but I couldn't care less if they lose their annual bonus and have to forgo the new Merc or boat. As things decline, the vultures among them stand to make even more money from interest charged to the struggling businesses and individuals in debt because of the situation.

I'm far more worried about the thousands of small and large UK businesses and the people they employ, many of whom won't survive.

They are not exactly bending over to help people, that's for sure.

 

[RogerS]

Deaths are one aspect ...an important one, I agree.

But one needs to consider just how the economy will actually ever get started again. And how forgiving the public will be in perpetual lockdown.

Although fewer people are dying than during a good/bad flue outbreak it would have been far worse without the lock down so there's nothing in reality to forgive.

Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.

We need another BUY BRITISH campaign like we had a couple of decades (or was it longer) ago. Support our industry, **** the rest and get the place moving again.

Perhaps forgiving was the wrong word (although a valid synonym !). Tolerant ?

 

[Jake]

Although fewer people are dying than during a good/bad flue outbreak

Err what? We have 7k deaths (the figures are for deaths in hospital only) already, on 900 a day, and this thing hasn't nearly peaked yet. You can't compare the start of this thing to the end of a flu season.

 

[user22161]

Although fewer people are dying than during a good/bad flue outbreak

Err what? We have 7k deaths (the figures are for deaths in hospital only) already, on 900 a day, and this thing hasn't nearly peaked yet. You can't compare the start of this thing to the end of a flu season.

W.H.O figures published 2017, worldwide 5 million cases of flue with up to 650,000 deaths p.a.

 

[Jake]

That was an upper bound estimate for worldwide deaths. It will be a stunning turn-around by the whole world if this does not exceed that by a very considerable margin. This is much more serious than any flu since 1918. But I hope you end up being right anyway.

 

[Rorschach]

That was an upper bound estimate for worldwide deaths. It will be a stunning turn-around by the whole world if this does not exceed that by a very considerable margin. This is much more serious than any flu since 1918. But I hope you end up being right anyway.

Excess winter deaths (flu mostly):

1999 - 48,000
2009 - 26,000
2014 - 44,000

In Jan 2015 weekly deaths were 15,000.

So at the moment these numbers are nothing unusual. We'll see how they continue.

 

[Jake]

Those numbers are not comparable. Total deaths will be much higher than the "COVID deaths" you are comparing to, which are in hospital and attributed to (and diagnosed as) COVID.

Let's take your 2014 example. Here are PHE's own excess mortality statistics for those years (E&W only, Scotland is not included but the figures were provided in the next annual report snip below).

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 5_2016.pdf

I am not sure where your Jan 2015 figure came from, because PHE statistics were that there were 2,291 excess deaths in total for that whole seasonal year.

Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 5_ver4.pdf

 

[Rorschach]

My figures came from the ONS.

 

[Jake]

Looking at the ONS reports you are comparing to total deaths, all causes, not the estimates for flu or respiratory disease.

 

[Rorschach]

It's excess winter deaths.

 

[Jake]

Yes, in the case of your 2014/2015 statistic but total EWD due to all/any causes. Quote: "Respiratory diseases also caused the largest number of excess winter deaths in 2014/15 (15,800), accounting for over a third of all EWDs."

In the case of your 17k Jan 2015, no that's wrong, that is just the peak weekly total deaths, not EWD.