Electric vehicles

[Terry - Somerset]

EV or ICE is no longer a rational debate. Most people seem attached to a personal opinion based upon rumour, conspiracy theory, skewed statistics, flawed science etc etc. Every individual is a unique case and objective analysis becomes irrelevant.

Whether the motives and rationale for EV new cars sales by 2030 is "correct" is unimportant. The Government has the power to implement and enforce the policy.

I don't expect an alternative Labour (or Libdem or SNP) government to materially alter course - the only plausible change is to defer for 1-3 years if infrastructure development is too slow to support the number of new EVs.

People are free to make their own choices - for the next 9 years you can still go and buy the burble of a new V8 should you so choose. After 2030 you will be at liberty to buy s/h. In 20 years time, if the itch hasn't yet been scratched, you will be able to buy a V8 banger.

A purely personal view:

• well before 2030 EV sales will dominate new car sales as EV range increases and prices fall
• ICE will depreciate faster as government policy favours EV usage and running costs
• some exceptions to EV transition identified, probably with a significant cost attached
• a s/h EV market will evolve as new EV sales increase. Most (80%) buy s/h cars.

 

[AlanY]

Not defending the diesel btw. We have valleys here that are problematic with particulates. Emissions standards have always been tighter here than in Europe and they get tighter every year. For practical purposes, car diesel has been phased out and emissions on pickups and trucks have taken away the fuel economy to a point that they're not cheaper to run for most. Only in the really heavy trucks.

In the UK we have such a high propensity of diesel cars for one simple reason: Political opportunism. Tony Blair favoured diesel when he saw it would reduce CO2 emissions and so give him 'green' credentials. Of course, everyone knew about the particulates issue with diesel, but when have scumbag politicians every listened to anyone outside their own petting circle? Now, of course, the economic benefit of diesel ihas been largely negated (again by deliberate political intervention) and people have started moving back to petrol as a fuel. So, CO2 is back on the rise... EVs are not the answer. Hybrids make more sense (I could be persuaded to buy a hybrid, I think). But I really wish the scumbag politicians would stop wasting taxpayer money on pet projects such as HS2 and, instead, invest it in hydrogen fuel cell R&D. If I wanted the UK to lead the world in anything, it would be that.

 

[Sachakins]

As an aside to the charging issue, I think the local house building program needs to change too.
There needs to be legislation that every new build to include a private driveway and have the necessary wiring/meters pre installed ready for a charging box. NOT the actual charging unit though.
Instead of the mass of apartments and houses with none, insufficient, shared or on street parking.

 

[Droogs]

Why not apartments with underground parking for each flat and the provision of charging hook up for each bay as they have been doing in nearly all new build appartments in China for the last decade. A more efficient use of the ground plan.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

I still think liquid fuels are the best option, especially for heavy goods vehicles, agricultural machinery etc. How about using atmospheric CO2 to make carbon neutral diesel? (I may have mentioned this before).
https://offgridworld.com/how-to-make-diesel-fuel-from-water-and-air/
Of course it is currently cheaper to pull fossil oil out of the ground.

 

[Spectric]

There needs to be legislation that every new build to include a private driveway and have the necessary wiring/meters pre installed ready for a charging box.

The problem here is that it should be a three phase supply to each property, EV chargers can be power hungry unless you are willing to charge overnite so now you have a chain of issues in that the local supply transformer will need to be changed to meet the potential load, then the DNO sub will need to be uprated to supply all these new local supplies and then even the national grid may need uprated to supply the DNO's especially in areas only with 132Kv and not 400Kv. So again big changes and huge capital expenditure.

 

[Dabop]

Lithium is a dangerous metalic substance that can be very unstable, it needs careful handling, charging, discharging and eventually disposal.

https://www.notts-fire.gov.uk/nfrs-news/Pages/A-warning-on-why-Lithium-Batteries-can-catch-fire.aspx
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5577247/
https://eu.pressconnects.com/story/...us-what-know-rochester-binghamton/4480496002/
https://www.petro-online.com/articl...timated-dangers-of-lithium-ion-batteries/2395
https://www.eunomia.co.uk/lithium-ion-battery-waste-fires-costing-the-uk-over-100m-a-year/

And yet billions of cells are in daily use around the world- with a lower failure rate than lead acid batteries- including the ones that run my house- which mind you (unlike my previous leadacid batteries) I haven't touched once since their first installation and use- over a year ago...
Set up,and totally ignored since then in terms of actually having to do a single thing to them, and I expect to continue to ignore them for the next 15-20 years, much like a fellow offgrid forum member, who has the exact same brand he first started using over a decade ago....

 

[Dabop]

The problem here is that it should be a three phase supply to each property, EV chargers can be power hungry unless you are willing to charge overnite so now you have a chain of issues in that the local supply transformer will need to be changed to meet the potential load, then the DNO sub will need to be uprated to supply all these new local supplies and then even the national grid may need uprated to supply the DNO's especially in areas only with 132Kv and not 400Kv. So again big changes and huge capital expenditure.

Any WHY do you need to have a 30 minute charger in your house???
Now you are getting slightly ridiculous....

 

[Rorschach]

As an aside to the charging issue, I think the local house building program needs to change too.
There needs to be legislation that every new build to include a private driveway and have the necessary wiring/meters pre installed ready for a charging box. NOT the actual charging unit though.
Instead of the mass of apartments and houses with none, insufficient, shared or on street parking.

Every new build I have seen (certainly the ones around here anyway) all come with a private driveway or allocated parking for the flats. The problem is the vast majority of our housing stock does not have this as an option so unless we knock down all the houses and build new we are still looking at a big issue to solve.

 

[Spectric]

Because your vehicle should be ready to use when required, if you need to collect something urgent such as medicine then having to wait for the EV to charge is not an option, I suppose you could have designated areas within a new development with a couple of charging points rather than one for each house but if you do have a three phase supply laid on then it opens up the options for your workshop, only downside is that it will be a 6 by 4 shed if you are lucky because they are really just battery farms for humans now.

 

[D_W]

In the UK we have such a high propensity of diesel cars for one simple reason: Political opportunism. Tony Blair favoured diesel when he saw it would reduce CO2 emissions and so give him 'green' credentials. Of course, everyone knew about the particulates issue with diesel, but when have scumbag politicians every listened to anyone outside their own petting circle? Now, of course, the economic benefit of diesel ihas been largely negated (again by deliberate political intervention) and people have started moving back to petrol as a fuel. So, CO2 is back on the rise... EVs are not the answer. Hybrids make more sense (I could be persuaded to buy a hybrid, I think). But I really wish the scumbag politicians would stop wasting taxpayer money on pet projects such as HS2 and, instead, invest it in hydrogen fuel cell R&D. If I wanted the UK to lead the world in anything, it would be that.

Toyota and Honda (and others - including international harvester and allis chalmers and all kinds of groups who specialize or specialized in stationary and machine power ideas) have spent immense amounts of money on fuel cells for at least 60 years (I'm not a historian on this stuff by any means, but remember seeing a very early 1960 or so fuel cell tractor made by allis).

Siemens made a 3kw fuel cell that a local high dollar charity used (a place called Phipps here) to generate power for one of their rooms. It was large, I'm sure it made no financial sense, but it was an early adopter project. One day, we went there, and it was turned off (something broke) and then not long after, it was gone.

If there was low hanging fruit there on fuel cells (in terms of making them economically viable), it would be out there already. I recall seeing that toyota had a fuel cell prius (maybe for sale, maybe for lease), and I saw a cost of production of about $70k per unit. That's obviously a challenge.

Honda had a hydrogen civic perhaps 15 years ago here and their per unit cost was $170k. I guess that's progress? They leased them in a couple of urban areas for $600 a month. It doesn't take much figuring to determine that doesn't pencil out (plus, you can lease a lot of cars for $600 a month - nice ones). I could be wrong about it being hydrogen fuel cell, but it was something along those lines.

100% agree that hybrids make sense - especially on cars that will be driven a lot in urban areas and won't be allowed to get too old. I understand the issue here is the charging system as they get older - if it poops, it's several times the value of the car to fix. The old nonsense about battery life never was an issue here with a prius - replacement generally only due to accidents physically damaging batteries).

But the hybrids match the diesels until you get to pulling loads or really large vehicles (and that's N/A for most customers).

The loyalists here for diesel pickups are farmers, etc, who wish to tow more than they should really be towing (and they can write off the pickups), and want to evade rules that apply to larger class trucks. The numbers have gone ballistic - a favorite truck in the 1990s was a cummins dodge - 195 horsepower, 400ft lb of torque, mechanical diesel (i think) and capable of mid to upper 20s in US gallons and legitimately tested independently. What's out there now are numbers like 450+ horsepower, 1000 ft lbs or torque and mileage is half with more regular maintenance.

I know a few farmers, and probably half even of that group has gone to large displacement gasoline trucks because they cost less to buy and drive and only give up mileage to the diesels under load. Emissions have created huge problems with diesel reliability, also.

 

[D_W]

Because your vehicle should be ready to use when required, if you need to collect something urgent such as medicine then having to wait for the EV to charge is not an option, I suppose you could have designated areas within a new development with a couple of charging points rather than one for each house but if you do have a three phase supply laid on then it opens up the options for your workshop, only downside is that it will be a 6 by 4 shed if you are lucky because they are really just battery farms for humans now.

This is a strange comment. How often do you think EVs have too little charge to go get medicine somewhere? How far are you driving for medicine, and what's the chance that you figure out you need to get it right after you just exhausted your battery (plus all of it's emergency reserve) just as you got home?

Plus you have to exhausted all other emergency options (no ability to get a taxi, uber, or whatever or know anyone else at all who would allow use).

I can only map to my BIL's circumstances - he's got about 225 miles of realistic range on his EV - he drives round trip about 80-90 miles each day, comes home and plugs the car in.

I generally refill at 1/4th tank, which on my car (due to some manufacturer magic making it look more empty than it is as a safety for dummies) is about 90 miles of range. My BIL has more range left than I do in some cases, but my medicine comes from 1/2 mile away. I could walk there. Not everyone could, but what's a reasonable max - 30 miles? I'd hate to have to drive 30 miles one way to get medication - especially if it was an emergency.

 

[D_W]

Let's not forget that we're generally in the early adopter phase right now, and probably will be for a while yet, but battery capacity is about a tenth of the cost that it was 15 years ago (I think all of the early tesla cars were sold at a loss, and perhaps some cost less than the batteries did at the time - that's going to continue to go toward lower cost, though it's anyones' guess how much is passed on to the consumer).

In the US, the only real issues we've seen for EV owners here is a combination. Not just range (you can still quick charge and schedule eating or whatever after 4 hours of driving and then move on), but range, needing quick charge, and then a travel holiday when everyone else is traveling. That *does* look like a pain, as there were lines at charge stations.

There's kind of an easy way around that right now, but maybe some think it's not convenient - travel a day early or a day late. Depending on where you are in the states (I have to drive the PA turnpike - two days of the year, it's downright dangerous because traffic can go from 80miles an hour to stop over and over due to congestion. Easter Sunday and the day after Thanksgiving in the afternoon both days. The fix is that we don't ever travel those days. I'm already doing what the battery car people would need to do).

The other workaround is traveling very late or early (something I also did before I had a spouse and kids and couldn't just tell them to pop out of bed at 4 am and get the wheels turning).

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Early adopters of almost everything pay a premium price for a level of functionality which two years later is often commonplace.

5 years ago new EVs would typically cost £10-30k more than for an equivalent ICE. Range was compromised. Charging points were low and scarce.

New cost is now approaching the price of an equivalently equipped and size ICE. Range is now acceptable for most - although some may bemoan the fact we cannot leap in the car, drive 400 miles to the chemist without stopping for a pee.

Speculate about EV for the next 5 years - likely greater range, faster recharging, growing network of vehicle specialists. ICE will progress little or not at all. In 4/5 years the default choice will be electric (bar a few dinosaurs and those with very specialist needs).

Personally - most cars have been bought with head rather than heart. Current car is a 3 year old medium hatch. I could not justify to myself buying a new electric at £30k++. I would not buy a s/h EV as 2/3 year old technology is already becoming obselete.

I like the idea of a luxobarge for a few years before they are no longer tenable - Merc, BMW, Lexus, Jag etc. But I wholly accept that the days of ICE are very limited.

 

[D_W]

The era of relatively reliable gasoline powered cars is gone. I think it went away about 15 years ago (not that all cars were reliable before then, but at least some were- but not now). We had a span of honda and toyota cars from the mid/late 80s to in some cases, the early 2000s, and that was sort of the last of it. Light trucks lasted a little longer.

 

[Spectric]

This is a strange comment. How often do you think EVs have too little charge

I think of an EV as a large cordless tool, I have found my cordless drill always seems to go flat when you most need it such as to finish an urgent job and then you find your spare is also low on charge, just seems to be the way and with an EV you don't have the luxury of just swapping out the battery anyway.

 

[D_W]

think of it as a cordless drill that can run for 3-6 hours under load and doesn't magically go flat and you can literally check its status on your phone.

It's not at all what you're describing. Instead, what you actually do is step out and plug it in right before you walk in the house.

AS far as the cordless tools go, I have five batteries that are all lithium and literally have never run out of useful batteries. Yard tools, leaf blower, cordless vacuums and then of course drills and such, the batteries (like a tesla) have a meter on them so then they're a few bars down, you put them on the charger. they never "go flat", unless perhaps they could over a year.

Which doesn't fit the emergency medicine story that well because you'd be contending that you have a car that you haven't driven for 6 months or a year and the fact that it may not run is a complete surprise.

I've watched my BIL let his car out, and can give you a more realistic scenario. You walk by the car, unplug it and then stand in the driveway and it backs out of the garage on its own and you get in. So when you're in a panic about your medication, you won't back the car into the garage door frame.

 

[AlanY]

And yet billions of cells are in daily use around the world- with a lower failure rate than lead acid batteries- including the ones that run my house- which mind you (unlike my previous leadacid batteries) I haven't touched once since their first installation and use- over a year ago...
Set up,and totally ignored since then in terms of actually having to do a single thing to them, and I expect to continue to ignore them for the next 15-20 years, much like a fellow offgrid forum member, who has the exact same brand he first started using over a decade ago....

I don't think anyone doubts the efficiency of lithium ion batteries, but it is valid to point out they contain a substance that is both very toxic and very volatile. Probably not an issue when used as battery storage banks for buildings but, as I mentioned earlier, EVs that suffer heavy collisions have a habit of catching fire and completely burning out. I know that puts me off being in one. Also, our local amenity tip (Westhampnett, if anyone cares to google it) recently burned down and was closed for ages, with the cause being determined as a truck running over a discarded lithium ion battery which burst into flames. It is frightening enough that stupid people chuck these toxic timebombs away without the added risk of them burning down buildings.

 

[Sachakins]

Every new build I have seen (certainly the ones around here anyway) all come with a private driveway or allocated parking for the flats. The problem is the vast majority of our housing stock does not have this as an option so unless we knock down all the houses and build new we are still looking at a big issue to solve.

But here there is flood of apartment new builds, and dense city building that unfortunately does not have the space and capacity for sufficient parking. Many builds are on existing brown field sites, not green field sites, so parking space is limited. Certainly out of town builds do have in general have private parking, but they are virtually all beyond affordable housing prices.

 

[TominDales]

A much bigger issue than anything you have mentioned though is the simple problem of charging. At the moment there is insufficient infrastructure to charge large numbers of electric vehicles, not to mention the problems that will be faced by those that don't have a driveway or garage. You can't run an extension lead out of the 10th floor of a block of flats!
Battery technology will (and must) improve. My own personal opinion is that we need a briefcase style battery that can be removed and taken indoors for charging, this saves the need for installing large swathes of on street charge points. Then again I am also of the opinion that batteries are not the way forward, hydrogen fuel cells are.

One solution to this is induction charging in the street. JLR and Coventry city are trialing some streets with this technology for on street parking. Quite high power charging with some advanced induction and power electronics.