THE FOURTH OF JULY

[curryjunkie]

I think it was the right decision long term and would have been more successful had covid not happened and the government actually acted upon the peoples vote and made things happen. The thing is we are an island nation and not French, culturally very different and the monarchs of the past knew how to handle the french like Henry V & George 111 . Where we went wrong was after WW2 Russia kept a lot of Germany as spoils of war so we should have kept Britanny or Normandy as a trophy and then we would have had more say in Europe.

Brexit has now become the excuse for the UKs demise and in reality it is not Brexit but the failure of succesive governments and breakdown of society and values that has got us into a race to the bottom.

can i have some of what you are smoking?

 

[RobinBHM]

I think brexit will be a talking point again after this election and especially so in 2026 when the trade and cooperation agreement is due to be renegotiated

 

[Terry - Somerset]

The pandemic may have stalled Brexit benefits by about a year. However, business as usual largely restarted by mid-2021 with the benefit of vaccine roll-out. Three years have passed and the Covid excuse no longer holds water.

Brexit clearly created barriers to trade, some of which have been minimised. However trade with the EU is still compromised compared to membership of the EU.

Trade agreements signed post Brexit, other than the effective transfer of those already enjoyed as part of the EU, make an utterly trivial difference to trade.

Immigration - figures for the last two years continue to show a complete lack of control. Rather than European nationals I assume many are from other parts of the world. I am not anti-immigration, although for many Brexit was the solution.

Take back control, sunlit uplands, NHS funding solved, international trade agreements etc seem a fantasy yet to be delivered. I doubt they ever will.

Tory and Labour parties in the forthcoming election are at pains to avoid any focus on the Brexit issue - probably for fear of upsetting some of their support. Reform still think it the best thing since sliced bread (IMHO they are delusional).

LibDems are the only party to paint a route back - albeit hidden in manifesto detail. I can only support the intent to make the UK part of one of three major trading blocks (US, China, EU) rather than a damp, wet, sunless (based on current weather) isolated island in the north-east Atlantic.

 

[Rhossydd]

LibDems are the only party to paint a route back

The Green party also want much closer links with the EU with a view towards rejoining.
Not a major party, but hopefully they'll have more MPs than reform after the election.
I'd also suggest that if FPTP was ever changed to a more representative voting system, the Greens would have a very much bigger influence.

 

[Spectric]

Brexit clearly created barriers to trade, some of which have been minimised. However trade with the EU is still compromised compared to membership of the EU.

I would say that it was the EU and not brexit that created trade barriers, if the eu wanted to trade and the UK had goods they wanted then trade would happen but our governments have been to easy with them and not stood our corner. Things may improve if the french get rid of macron but the future for the Uk is bleak in or out of the EU and with or without starmer because we have just stood by and watched the country crumble into the ground for many decades, lost a huge amount of skills and experience so not much left to re grow an economy from, as they say Rome was not built in a day so before we can rebuild we have to reach ground zero. To suceed we need to be on the wining side which means working with China and the eastern countries rather than trying to fight the east alongside europe.

rather than a damp, wet, sunless (based on current weather) isolated island in the north-east Atlantic.

Something our government has not factored into the pay negiotions with our NHS staff, probably not a hard decision for young recently qualified nurses. They must think do I remain on this damp, wet, sunless (based on current weather) isolated island in the north-east Atlantic whilst continuing the strike action to try and get a bit more pay or just pack my bags and go somewhere the government will appreciate me more and pay a decent wage whilst being in warmer sunnier conditions. .

 

[Rhossydd]

I would say that it was the EU and not brexit that created trade barriers,

You really don't understand this at all. Of course it's brexit that caused the problems, we've left the EU.

How many times does it have to be said that if you leave the EU you get treated as a third country until you negotiate a replacement deal. that's why we have to stand in 'rest of the world' queues at passport control.
It's absolutely an act of national self-harm that made us the laughing stock of the world.

 

[Spectric]

It's absolutely an act of national self-harm that made us the laughing stock of the world.

We have been the laughing stock of the world now for many years, if nothing else we can say we have entertained many others. If the EU was such an important component to the success of the UK then how did we once supply most of the planet with rails, rolling stock and cloth amongst a lot more. It seems that broken britain needs a walking stick for support and many see the EU as that walking stick.

 

[Jacob]

Sitting here in on a campsite in France waiting for a pizza. Just reminded me of "oven ready deals".
Which berk came up with that particular brexit lie?
More to the point - why did anybody believe it?

 

[Rhossydd]

how did we once supply most of the planet with rails, rolling stock and cloth amongst a lot more.

You're not following this thread very well. The decline of heavy manufacturing as the country ran out of cheap resources has already been discussed. Not relevant either as our industrial heyday was before the EU.
Yes, the EU has been a great support and opportunity for the UK, which is why it was stupid to discard it. Now we'll just limp on.

 

[Spectric]

At last you are seeing the problem, by those cheap resources you mean labour, the cost of production and the fact we priced ourselves out of the market so manufacturing just collapsed leaving us surviving on service and financial / banking. Without large scale manufacturing the best you can sell are ideas and designs. At some point the chinese could do the same and find that they can manufacture goods cheaper elsewhere and then we become relevant again.

 

[Rhossydd]

leaving us surviving on service and financial / banking.

We're the sixth biggest economy in the world, we're doing a lot better than 'surviving'.
There's a huge amount more to the UK economy than just service and financial / banking. Ever flown ? chances are that you had Rolls Royce aero engines under the wings. Our Pharmaceuticals industry is genuinely world class. The creative industries are world renown and generate huge revenues.
We now do the clever profitable stuff and not make socks and toasters.

 

[Jacob]

Another flashback - defenders of Brexit remind me of the dead parrot sketch.

 

[sploo]

We have been the laughing stock of the world now for many years, if nothing else we can say we have entertained many others. If the EU was such an important component to the success of the UK then how did we once supply most of the planet with rails, rolling stock and cloth amongst a lot more. It seems that broken britain needs a walking stick for support and many see the EU as that walking stick.

Because the world changes. Pre-WWII the US was far more insular (not a huge player on the world stage), and far east manufacturing wasn't a "thing". By the 1960s the US was a major player, and the Japanese were known for cheap knockoffs of western products (cars especially). The US is still a major player, but now the cheap knockoffs come from China and Japanese goods are expensive. Highly likely at some point such cheap manufacturing may come from African nations.

In today's economic terms you have the US and China as two major powers, along with the EU bloc. Any individual European country cannot now compete; which is why that EU trading bloc is so important. We're now on the outside, and reaping what we've sown.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

At last you are seeing the problem, by those cheap resources you mean labour, the cost of production and the fact we priced ourselves out of the market so manufacturing just collapsed leaving us surviving on service and financial / banking. Without large scale manufacturing the best you can sell are ideas and designs. At some point the chinese could do the same and find that they can manufacture goods cheaper elsewhere and then we become relevant again.

Since 1990 the share of the UK economy attributed to services has grown from 70% to 81%, while that attributed to manufacturing has decreased from 17% to 9%. Similar to France and Spain. Even in much vaunted Germany, manufacturing now only accounts for 18% of GDP.

The reasons for this are unsurprising - Chinese economic reforms in 1978 transformed their economic output. They had the advantage of low labour and energy costs, limited regard for H&S etc, and a government committed to supporting economic growth internationally.

The UK willingly (as did most developed economies) imported copious volumes of Chinese manufactured goods. Had we relied upon the UK manufacturing for products (TVs, kitchen appliances, tools, now cars etc), prices would have been higher and unaffordable for many. We are the architects of our own manufacturing sector decline through chasing low prices.

Reliance on imported goods is a vulnerability - although the UK is anyway incapable of supplying all materials required. The standard of, or quality, of living is now dependant on services, not the material goods, that we use - eg: healthcare, education, entertainment, retail, etc.

I worked in manufacturing and engineering industries for 20 years. The group had a special steels division who proudly boasted they never lost money during the 1960s, 70s, or 80s - achieved by never investing.

By the 1990s with plants full of obsolete equipment they had no prospect of ever again competing internationally. Their largest site is now a retail park. Traditional manufacturing industry had no future in the UK - high end engineering where science and brain power dominated had potential.

Whether the UK will ever again be pivotal in world trade is debateable. The days of empire upon which the sun never set are firmly gone. Global leadership is transient - Greek, Roman, Chinese, UK, have all shone and later failed.

Back to the politics - will the UK prosper better as part of an integrated Europe or independently - personally I strongly favour integration.

 

[Spectric]

I worked in manufacturing and engineering industries for 20 years. The group had a special steels division who proudly boasted they never lost money during the 1960s, 70s, or 80s - achieved by never investing.

That was unfortunately the story of many, failure to invest, failure to reconise competition and happy to standstill. Just think about if the Japanese had not exported cars to the uk and there had not been any competition, we could well still be driving Cortina's, Allegro's and Cavaliers !

 

[RobinBHM]

I would say that it was the EU and not brexit that created trade barriers, if the eu wanted to trade and the UK had goods they wanted then trade would happen but our governments have been to easy with them and not stood our corner

May I very politely explain that unfortunately you don’t understand international trade.

There are trade barriers between every country. They can be broken into different levels with highest barriers to lowest:

1)At the most basic level countries trade on WTO terms,

2) above that countries have trade agreements which reduce tariffs and some basic alignment. These are often called Free Trade Agreements although they actually only remove some tariffs and do not address non tariff barriers.

3)European Single market. The EU has created a Single Market. This is a system that eliminates all tariffs and a non tariff barriers.

The way that it achieves that is by harmonising regulatory standards across every member. The benefit is that because all goods are produced to the same standard, they can be exported and imported between any member states without customs checks, transit document, sanitary and photo sanitary checks, customs declarations because the goods are manufactured to the correct standard at source and to a level playing field.

The UK has chosen to leave the SM and diverge regulatory stds so checks at borders becomes necessary.

This is what brexit supporters do not appreciate: the only way you can generate from frictionless trade is by following the same stds. Bfexit supporters complain about being ties to EU rules but then complain "EU is punishing UK for leaving" when barriers are increased.

Brexit supporters sadly do not understand the benefit of frictionless trade, but as somebody that imported timber from Germany, I can say its a massive benefit for SMEs because you couls buy and sell anywhere in EU as easily as doing so in the UK.

I hope you won't be irritated by explaining facts.

 

[Spectric]

I hope you won't be irritated by explaining facts.

I appreciate all knowledge and information, it is essential in the understanding of anything but I will say that engineering, even electromagnetic's is much easier to grasp than international trade. I suppose one is logical wheras international trade involves human emotions and thinking but trade has to be a two way thing.

 

[Jacob]

At last you are seeing the problem, by those cheap resources you mean labour, the cost of production and the fact we priced ourselves out of the market so manufacturing just collapsed leaving us surviving on service and financial / banking. Without large scale manufacturing the best you can sell are ideas and designs. At some point the chinese could do the same and find that they can manufacture goods cheaper elsewhere and then we become relevant again.

The big industrial advantage the Chinese have is state control and investment in their economy.
We in turn have chosen to leave things to a very limp-wristed free market ideology, which has failed us all spectacularly.

 

[RobinBHM]

I appreciate all knowledge and information, it is essential in the understanding of anything but I will say that engineering, even electromagnetic's is much easier to grasp than international trade. I suppose one is logical wheras international trade involves human emotions and thinking but trade has to be a two way thing.

Thank you for the reply, I was responding to the specific point you were made here:

I would say that it was the EU and not brexit that created trade barriers

As I explained above, trade barriers were an inevitable consequence of brexit, nothing to do with the EU.


International trade does not involve human emotions, international trade is entirely logical.

If the U.K. has different standards, then it can’t move those goods into the EU without checks.


Here is an example: U.K. imports beef from Australia which contains growth hormones, a U.K. then makes meat pies and exports them to EU with no customs checks…….EU then has non compliant product.

 

[curryjunkie]

Thank you for the reply, I was responding to the specific point you were made here:



As I explained above, trade barriers were an inevitable consequence of brexit, nothing to do with the EU.


International trade does not involve human emotions, international trade is entirely logical.

If the U.K. has different standards, then it can’t move those goods into the EU without checks.


Here is an example: U.K. imports beef from Australia which contains growth hormones, a U.K. then makes meat pies and exports them to EU with no customs checks…….EU then has non compliant product.

"But but we had an empire and should have kept half of France"