But if you know that you do have a wining hand that you have not yet played then the game is not over.
How's this for a conspiracy theory ?
- Thread starter woodieallen
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But a hand that results in your own inevitable destruction is hardly a winner is it. Putin may have the attitude of Hitler, that if he is going down then everyone else can go with him, I suspect others will not be so keen. And Putin cannot fire a missile himself, there will be a whole host of people involved, any one of whom can sabotage the process. There is, and never has been, any real threat to the Russian homeland. I have faith that those responsible for launching a nuclear strike are not going to start WW3 to save Putin's pride. If you let him do what he likes on the basis that if you don't he might nuke you, then where does that end? And we need to be aware that China in particular will be following these events with great interest, they would love to bring Taiwan back into the fold, hopefully our actions in support of Ukraine will make them think twice. So far the Chinese support for Russian has been lukewarm at best. They are wise enough to sit back and see how things develop before committing themselves. More recently they appear increasingly unenthusiastic in support of Russia's actions. This suggests to me anyway they are not convinced that he is going to win, and don't want to damage their image backing a potential loser when there is really no upside for them. The only country backing him unequivocally is N Korea, which says it all.
On a slight tangent to the main thread direction, can anyone explain to me why POW's are being exchanged on it seems a regular basis? I thought the idea of keeping them as pow's was so they could no longer fight you. Returning them back home after a few months seems counter productive.
Jonm
Established Member
My understanding is that if Putin launches a tactical nuclear weapon then Russia has been told what the NATO conventional response will be.
An indication of what that could be is
That looks like a Russian losing hand.
Russia would then have a choice of further nuclear escalation which could then easily result in complete nuclear destruction.
It is a dangerous game we are all players/spectators in. Hitler could have easily been stopped at the Rhineland military occupation. Putin could have been deterred after 2014 Crimean invasion if we (the West) had responded robustly but we put money first.
Jonm
Established Member
If the numbers/skills are about the same then it balances out. Where, for example, uk nationals enrolled in the Ukrainian army are returned then Ukraine would see this as goodwill towards a major supporter.
The old convention was always that if you were released in these circumstances it was on the understanding that you would not take up arms again.
Terry - Somerset
Established Member
Were the west to back down now in the face of a nuclear threat, it would send a message to Putin and every other rogue nuclear state they could get what they want through nuclear threat.
N.Korea is a good example - Kim Jong-un is probably certifiable but has a nuclear capability. Iran is close. Pakistan is not the most stable of states and a potential threat.
That nuclear (and biological and chemical) capability would "trickle down" to madmen was inevitable and would need resolution. That time is now.
N.Korea is a good example - Kim Jong-un is probably certifiable but has a nuclear capability. Iran is close. Pakistan is not the most stable of states and a potential threat.
That nuclear (and biological and chemical) capability would "trickle down" to madmen was inevitable and would need resolution. That time is now.
Hear hear. If we had put Putin firmly back in his box years ago we wouldn't be having this conversation. Now we need to deal with him firmly, as much to send a clear message to others with similar ambitions as to help Ukraine.
But NATO has been told what the response would be if they set foot in Ukraine, Russia uses small Nuke in Ukraine so NATO joins in and then full retaliation by Russia. What is playing out is a very dangerous game of Poker / Bluff in which the stakes are far to high to continue playing. We are thinking like europeans and not the likes of Russia, N Korea or China and that makes it even more high risk. Lets forget a nuclear retaliation, just think of what happens if we get Novichoked, that could put us out of action for an awful long time with an NHS and emergency services that could not cope.
Escalation has to be avoided at all cost, even if Russia retreated completely out of Ukraine they could still bomb and shell them at will so as I have already said there needs to be an outcome that keeps both sides happy.
So how do you keep a madman happy ?
The west and nato's collective response to russia's past aggression of its neighbours is the seed that sowed todays shocking scenes in Ukraine,
Germany and France in particular.The former who had an East German ruler and russian speaker who gladly signed up to giving the russians an energy noose with which to strangle their own country. Soholz did his best to obstruct any meanful assisance in the early months of this war too
The later,well Macron was so far up the jacksie of putin with his cosy chats early in the conflict that i had to pinch myself at times and wonder exactly what pies his fingers were in .One day we may get answers but unlikely.Time has moved on and both countries have got it into their heads that putin is infact crazy .
The problem with those 2 countries is that without the disenting voice of the UK now in the EU ,the rest of Europe have to just tow the line .
Is it any wonder our nation voted to leave that taking shop.
I honestly can't see any way out for putin to save face .
As long as the supplies keep rolling from the west ,he is on a loser.No way out except to keep feeding the meat grinder on the front line and hope no one in Moscow notices .
Too late for a settlement now other than the full reinstatement of Ukraines international borders.The USA are rubbing their hands,fighting a proxy war which will leave their arch enemy in the gutter ,both financially and militarily and not having to put feet on the ground.
They will also be coining it in due to increased oil and gas trade with europe at high prices .
No one wants to see suffering but the US don't have too many incentives just now to see this ending before the destruction of russia as a force .
David Starkey summed that up - we tend to believe the Russians and Chinese think like us ..... they don't.
That is why we are in such a grave situation, nothing more dangerous than a wounded animal. I agree America has been throwing europe under the bus just to see Russia brought down and is willing to let us all freeze this winter, some special freind!
That was fine in places like Korea, Iraq and Vietnam but none of those countries had the ability to take the destruction back onto your own soil and wipe out your own people. Another issue is that Putin strikes a deal with North Korean or such in exchange for an arms deal, suddenly we are facing trouble from other directions and there are a lot of places and people who really dislike America. Long term it will be China that topples the Americans off the top spot.
You won't ever make him happy, he grieves the downfall of the Soviet Union as much as Hitler grieved Germany's loss of WW1. The best way to beat him is to let him burn himself out and the Russians will remove him.So how do you keep a madman happy ?
The west and nato's collective response to russia's past aggression of its neighbours is the seed that sowed todays shocking scenes in Ukraine,
Germany and France in particular.The former who had an East German ruler and russian speaker who gladly signed up to giving the russians an energy noose with which to strangle their own country. Soholz did his best to obstruct any meanful assisance in the early months of this war too
The later,well Macron was so far up the jacksie of putin with his cosy chats early in the conflict that i had to pinch myself at times and wonder exactly what pies his fingers were in .One day we may get answers but unlikely.Time has moved on and both countries have got it into their heads that putin is infact crazy .
The problem with those 2 countries is that without the disenting voice of the UK now in the EU ,the rest of Europe have to just tow the line .
Is it any wonder our nation voted to leave that taking shop.
I honestly can't see any way out for putin to save face .
As long as the supplies keep rolling from the west ,he is on a loser.No way out except to keep feeding the meat grinder on the front line and hope no one in Moscow notices .
The USA are rubbing their hands,fighting a proxy war which will leave their arch enemy in the gutter ,both financially and militarily and not having to put feet on the ground.
They will also be coining it in due to increased oil and gas trade with europe at high prices .
No one wants to see suffering but the US don't have too many incentives just now to see this ending before the destruction of russia as a force .
Blackswanwood
Still Learning
I don't think any of us know how NATO will respond if Russia were to use a tactical nuclear weapon. The reported position is that the US is being deliberately vague. I do think that if that happened those that have been prepared to tolerate Russia's actions (China/India etc) will quickly rethink their position.
Escalation should be avoided wherever possible as opposed to at all cost. "At all cost" was the stance Neville Chamberlain took. Being prepared to respond firmly to Russia upping the ante is the only viable option in my opinion.
Jonm
Established Member
But Russia knows how the USA would respond
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...es-nuclear-weapons-ukraine-us-warns-rcna49365
National security adviser Jake Sullivan told NBC News' "Meet the Press" on Sunday that the consequences "would be catastrophic if Russia went down the dark road of nuclear weapons use."
Pressed by host Chuck Todd about what those countermeasures would be, Sullivan would only say, "In private channels we have spelled out in greater detail exactly what that would mean."
Anthony Blinken said something similar here
Blackswanwood
Still Learning
Good!
This is looking like one hell of a big mistake on the part of the USA, they are assuming Putin would not escalute the war if they got involved when he uses a tactical batlefield nuke but with
" According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia has a total nuclear warhead inventory of 5,977 - this is the biggest in the world. "
Lets say that 75% don't reach target, don't exist or are dud so around 1500 will hit something, each wiping out around 100 square miles, even if they all miss a target the radioactive fall out on our planet will cause massive loss of life over many decades to come, I suppose that is why they called the game with just one round in the chamber Russian roulette.
" According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia has a total nuclear warhead inventory of 5,977 - this is the biggest in the world. "
Lets say that 75% don't reach target, don't exist or are dud so around 1500 will hit something, each wiping out around 100 square miles, even if they all miss a target the radioactive fall out on our planet will cause massive loss of life over many decades to come, I suppose that is why they called the game with just one round in the chamber Russian roulette.
Nuclear war is playing Russian Roulette with an automatic pistol instead of a revolver.
Jonm
Established Member
I think that is very unfair to the USA, they have been warning Germany about Nord stream 2 and the dependance of some European nations on Russian gas. Much as I dislike Trump, here is a video of German diplomats reaction to Trumps warning about this issue. Laughing and smirking, openly mocking him.
The Americans are using Europeans as pawns in there proxy war. China must be happy that the Russians are keeping them occupied whilst they line up Taiwan.
