Hancock's Half Hour

[Trainee neophyte]

Would you stand in front of your parents and say you have to die so my business can thrive? Maybe you would but I seriously doubt it, I couldn't as I would find a way to survive hard times but not the guilt of killing my parents. Is that analogy any more silly than yours?

This is exactly the kind of calculation that Roger objects to, with good reason, but which must be made because of finite resources. This is precisely the reason that mad metrics such as "quality adjusted life-year" exist. It's a really grubby, unpleasant fact of life, but exists none the less, because the nhs doesn't have unlimited, endless staff,resources, money, beds etc. No healthcare system in the world is perfect, and cost-benefit decisions have to be made every day. Otherwise, every nations' healthcare would be fully funded, and tax rates would be far, far higher. We, the people, make exactly that choice when we choose our left/right, big/small, high tax/low tax governments. Just nobody sells it in such stark terms as "my parents or your business". Maybe we should - it would be more honest.

 

[Lons]

Would you stand in front of your parents and say you have to die so my business can thrive? Maybe you would but I seriously doubt it, I couldn't as I would find a way to survive hard times but not the guilt of killing my parents. Is that analogy any more silly than yours?

This is exactly the kind of calculation that Roger objects to, with good reason, but which must be made because of finite resources. This is precisely the reason that mad metrics such as "quality adjusted life-year" exist. It's a really grubby, unpleasant fact of life, but exists none the less, because the nhs doesn't have unlimited, endless staff,resources, money, beds etc. No healthcare system in the world is perfect, and cost-benefit decisions have to be made every day. Otherwise, every nations' healthcare would be fully funded, and tax rates would be far, far higher. We, the people, make exactly that choice when we choose our left/right, big/small, high tax/low tax governments. Just nobody sells it in such stark terms as "my parents or your business". Maybe we should - it would be more honest.

So to throw it back at you your parents are standing in front of you and you say " mum and dad, I know you sacrificed much to give me a decent upbringing and start in life" ( may or may not have funded university ) "but I've decided that to save my business" ( as I don't have the nouse to diversify or find other ways to make a living ) "you have to die as the price for that. bye folks and thanks but your efforts mean little and I choose economics."

I'm very pleased my kids have a much more balanced view but I'll make allowances for the fact that you're a Martian. :lol:

 

[Lons]

A funny thing about food: consumers don't buy it as a discretionary purchase, only as and when they are feeling flush. Food is eaten daily, by almost everyone, all the time. If they don't buy their potatoes at a restaurant, what will they eat instead? I

That's a very sweeping statement and not entirely true IMHO, at least not in the UK. You state that as if everyone eats in restaurants, they don't! The ones that do either can afford to or are happy stuffing their credit cards to the limit.
There are huge numbers of people who simply don't have enough money to do so as when housing and energy costs have been paid what's left goes almost exclusively on food, once you've taken the druggies, smokers, drinkers and good for nothings out of those numbers you'll find the rest buying cheap fruit and veg, potatoes by the sackful and making their own and family's meals.

Maybe it's different in Greece and certainly true of the tourist trades but the Greek families I met when on holiday made huge family meals at home for extended family, we even were invited to one of them. Of course I have only limited experience and don't pretend to know what they do.
Reading between the lines suggests correct me if I'm wrong, that your produce is sold to hotels and restaurants rather than the local Joe public.

 

[Blackswanwood]

As a side note of my own, I just heard on the BBC news headlines that for the second week in a row now nationwide deaths are below the 5 year average, hmmmm now I wonder who said that would happen :wink:

I wouldn’t read too much into that as pre C19 it was already running lower. None the less it’s good news. I asked an actuary about it earlier and she had a list of factors that will be in play including fewer road accidents. She also pointed to the potential for a swing in the other direction in coming months as a result of treatment gaps as per the BBC last night.

 

[doctor Bob]

Some of these analogies make the ones on the brexit thread look sensible.

 

[Rorschach]

As a side note of my own, I just heard on the BBC news headlines that for the second week in a row now nationwide deaths are below the 5 year average, hmmmm now I wonder who said that would happen :wink:

I wouldn’t read too much into that as pre C19 it was already running lower. None the less it’s good news. I asked an actuary about it earlier and she had a list of factors that will be in play including fewer road accidents. She also pointed to the potential for a swing in the other direction in coming months as a result of treatment gaps as per the BBC last night.

Certainly there are a lot of factors. Road deaths is not one I would factor though, for a start road use is back up and has been for at least a month, road use is possibly even higher since people are avoiding public transport. On average 34 people a week die on the roads but it's heavily swayed toward winter as you might expect, I was unable to find figures for this time of year but we can safely say it is less than 34 per week, at a guess probably half that.

Our average deaths were lower before C19 and I have heard doctors talking about the "harvesting effect", I mentioned it here before in greater detail. It is certainly something that could explain both pre C19 low numbers and now the same happening again.

 

[Lons]

Some of these analogies make the ones on the brexit thread look sensible.

You started it Robert, :wink: and I did say is mine as silly as yours - it was meant to be. :lol: But be fair, the brexit thread was rarely sensible.

 

[doctor Bob]

Some of these analogies make the ones on the brexit thread look sensible.

You started it Robert, :wink: and I did say is mine as silly as yours - it was meant to be. :lol: But be fair, the brexit thread was rarely sensible.

You justify your crazy analogies however you want. Seen it done hundreds of times on the brexit thread, one participant was an expert at nonsensical analogies, you'll struggle to beat him :wink:
see if you can get jumping out of an aeroplane with or wiothout a parachute...............

 

[Lons]

You justify your crazy analogies however you want. Seen it done hundreds of times on the brexit thread, one participant was an expert at nonsensical analogies, you'll struggle to beat him :wink:
see if you can get jumping out of an aeroplane with or wiothout a parachute...............

That's all gobbledegook to me Bob, haven't a clue what you're talking about. :?

 

[RogerS]

Bobble struggles with analogies almost as much as he does with hyperbole.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

A funny thing about food: consumers don't buy it as a discretionary purchase, only as and when they are feeling flush. Food is eaten daily, by almost everyone, all the time. If they don't buy their potatoes at a restaurant, what will they eat instead? I

That's a very sweeping statement and not entirely true IMHO, at least not in the UK. You state that as if everyone eats in restaurants, they don't! The ones that do either can afford to or are happy stuffing their credit cards to the limit.

I appear to have worded it poorly. My point is that people eat food every day, regardless of the source. It doesn't matter if they eat at a restaurant or at home - they still eat, roughly the same number of calories (although if they are like me, they may make more of a pig of themselves when at a restaurant). This was in reply to the suggestion that destroying seed potatoes in the USA was purely an issue of restaurants not needing so many potatoes, because of the lockdown, and therefore not a reason to panic. I am of the opinion that reduced food production in one sector will put strain on another sector, because the sum total of required daily calories will be roughly similar, regardless of where the food is bought. I think we are in agreement there.

Reading between the lines suggests correct me if I'm wrong, that your produce is sold to hotels and restaurants rather than the local Joe public.

Selling olive oil to Greeks is on a par with taking coals to Newcastle - they all have their own trees in the family. We do sell some to Athenians, but not a lot. Olive oil is for export.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

So to throw it back at you your parents are standing in front of you and you say " mum and dad, I know you sacrificed much to give me a decent upbringing and start in life" ( may or may not have funded university ) "but I've decided that to save my business" ( as I don't have the nouse to diversify or find other ways to make a living ) "you have to die as the price for that. bye folks and thanks but your efforts mean little and I choose economics."

I'm very pleased my kids have a much more balanced view but I'll make allowances for the fact that you're a Martian. :lol:

Why so angry? Why so certain you know everything about me, and my incompetent business acumen?

Every time you voted for the lower tax party, you voted to kill someone's mum. Are you the staunchest Labour voter ever? If so, I might be able to understand your logic. Otherwise, why can you not grasp the concept of there not being an infinite amount of resources? There should be a hospital bed and sufficient staff, to treat every single person in the world, all at the same time, just in case everyone gets ill on the same day. Obviously that would be silly, so decisions are made based on projected needs and likely scenarios. Budgets are trimmed, resources allocated, and mismanagement and mistakes will occur, which must, by definition, cost lives. Or do we live in some bizarre world where everything is perfect? According to the BMJ one third of care home deaths over the past few months were due to failures in care, not Covid19. Is that my fault, because I am cruel, and Martian?

Oh, and I have run my business for nearly 20 years, I have no debt, and I have income from 5 unrelated sources. I am now moving in to a sixth. How much more diversification would you like? I also have no access to government largess and safety nets, and my "old age pension" will be laughably small, and probably not paid in any event. I will need to fund it myself, which is why I dislike spending savings today when they should be for the future.

 

[Andy Kev.]

TN,

I agree with your line of argument here. The higher up a decision making chain one gets, the less possible it is to produce finely adjusted, tailor made solutions to problems. Therefore various factors are taken into account, the biggest one being the amount of money available. You hospital beds point is a good one. How does the govt. calculate the number of beds to have in a hospital? I imagine that it turns on the size of the population in the catchment area plus a consideration of historical levels of demand. That gives a figure X. The first question is probably, "Can we afford X?" If the answer is "No" then the number actually installed might be X - Y. If the coffers are full, it might be X + Z, with Z being a bit of slack to be taken up in emergencies.

One of the reasons the country was ill-prepared for the current crisis was that despite studies having been made, previous govts. of all colours had not allocated the spending for a "what if" scenario and kept their fingers crossed that it would not occur while they were in office. If we are lucky a contingency plan will be developed in the light of current experience - and guess what: it won't turn on touchy-feely considerations either and nor should it at that level. I imagine that the cost of damage done to the economy will be measured against the cost of counter measures e.g. getting the Nightingale Hospitals up and running, maintaining stocks of PPE etc. The accountants will calculate and a budget will be allocated.

An "acceptable" level of deaths will be arrived at. This must be done and it is the sort of planning where for once I have sympathy for the decision makers (assuming they're competent which is perhaps unlikely given what we know of NHS management and the civil service).

What we cannot do is make blanket, 100% provision. No nation can sustain that. In fact the only time that you enjoy that level of care is when you are a babe in the arms of your mother.

I would add one thing: those who are a bit worried about the dangers potentially posed by various kinds of catastrophe should not unconditionally place their fates in the hands of the state. If you're bothered about a future and seriously lethal pandemic, buy PPE (including respirators) for all of your family and keep an emergency supplies cupboard well stocked. A cheaper and more traditional alternative is to keep a bottle of whisky and a revolver in the study for when symptoms appear. Your choice.

 

[Rorschach]

Some very sensible stuff in those last few posts, it will be interesting to see the responses.

 

[doctor Bob]

You justify your crazy analogies however you want. Seen it done hundreds of times on the brexit thread, one participant was an expert at nonsensical analogies, you'll struggle to beat him :wink:
see if you can get jumping out of an aeroplane with or wiothout a parachute...............

That's all gobbledegook to me Bob, haven't a clue what you're talking about. :?

Not to worry, just ramblings of an silly person, allowed Roger to have a dig anyway :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[Blackswanwood]

TN - I agree the principle of needing to cut our cloth to what we can afford is one it would be illogical to reject. I think that this has become a bone of contention misses the point though - it's not just economic factors in play in reaching the decision.

I reach the conclusion every time I dip into this thread that just as in wider society we are not going to reach agreement on where the line should be drawn or how this then relates to how we can respond to the situation we are in. Reading back there is more agreement than immediately jumps out including your point (needing to cut our cloth) and not carrying on blindly with the country in full lockdown. We all have nuanced views on the non-economic factors though (and some I suspect are just in the discussion for the sport). When we jump to the extremes to make the point (stark choices?) any room for compromise is gone.

My feeling is that the best achievable answer is going to be one that the majority feel least uncomfortable with as there isn't an answer that everyone will feel comfortable with. I doubt we will uncover it in this forum though and if we do think we have it's hardly valid as we're a) not in power (unless you are Boris in disguise :lol: ) and b) as a bunch of blokes interested in woodworking we're not representative of the UK electorate.

Rorschach - on the issue of the mortality rate you may well be right on those attributable to road accidents. My view is though (and I'm not going to list all the other examples I was given) we just don't know at this point in time. The ONS data gets restated and there are currently delays in deaths being registered. Whatever the answer is hopefully the number of people dying is falling. I don't think the statistical phenomenon of harvesting changes anything - C19 has still caused a significant spike in excess mortality.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Rorschach - on the issue of the mortality rate you may well be right on those attributable to road accidents.

It's all a bit counter-intuitive: : https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00210-0

How the next recession could save lives
Death rates have dropped during past economic downturns, even as many health trends have worsened.

In 1922, a pair of sociologists at New York’s Columbia University were poring over 50 years of US economic and mortality data, when they noticed a surprising result. Lean times in the country’s history didn’t correspond with more deaths, as they expected. In fact, the opposite was true. More people — babies included — died when the economy prospered1.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

Meanwhile, the Indonesians are (I was going to say single-handedly, but that would probably be inaccurate...) making up for any Covid-related deficit in the human population:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/10/worl ... -boom.html

 

[selectortone]

...This was in reply to the suggestion that destroying seed potatoes in the USA was purely an issue of restaurants not needing so many potatoes, because of the lockdown, and therefore not a reason to panic. I am of the opinion that reduced food production in one sector will put strain on another sector, because the sum total of required daily calories will be roughly similar, regardless of where the food is bought. I think we are in agreement there

The characteristically doom-laden assertion was that the system is broken and that supply chains are failing, which they aren't. But hey, let's get on social media and whip up the great unwashed masses into another totally pointless round of panic buying and self-fulfilling shortages.

 

[Lons]

TN
Let me just put the record straight.

Why so angry? Why so certain you know everything about me, and my incompetent business acumen?

* I'm not at all angry and very rarely indeed do I ever get to that state. I'm very laid back normally.
* I know very little about you, never really said I do and don't particularly want to know. You'll find it was Rorschach who demanded that "people put their cards on the table".
* Remember that you suggested that you were funding lockdown for my benefit and named me in that post even though not addressed to me and whilst knowing very little about my circumstances so it's a bit rich to to dish it out but not happy when the reverse happens. You did say that your post was poorly worded so I'll reciprocate and offer you an apology for that specific bracketed phrase which included "nouse".

You responded to an analogy which we all know is silly but started initially by Doc Bob when he compared parents v young mum with kids, I threw it back at you and your response that reads as if anyone who isn't a Labour voter has killed someone's mum isn't a valid answer and just as silly. BTW I'm a floating voted and certainly not dyed in the wool as far as any political party is involved however I'd suggest you don't introduce politics into the thread or Nev will lock it.

Where did I ever suggest that resources are not finite or that the cost of lockdowns is not horrendous? The fact that our views differ is just that, difference of opinion you're entitled to yours as I am to mine. I've been around long enough in hugely competitive commercial environments and 18+ years in my own business to have a firm understanding of the situation.

Good to hear that you acted prudently and saved, many of us did the same over a lifetime of work and we'll all suffer in the same way after all it's difficult to generate additional income once you've retired and on fixed income. FYI I didn't have fat cat, final salary pensions before it's suggested by certain people, I just invested every penny I could spare when I could and if I was struggling I couldn't.

Selling olive oil to Greeks is on a par with taking coals to Newcastle

On a lighter note you might be surprised how much foreign coal was sold into Newcastle.