Electric vehicles

[Rorschach]

I think that is true for most people. There must be, though, a cut-off point where the lower running costs eventually offset the higher purchase price. If you do enough miles and keep the car long enough the EV might eventually be cheaper. I have seen a couple of calculations like that but not studied them. Did you look at it that way, or was the high up-front cost enough to rule it out for you? It would be interesting to see the way you approached it.

Pretty difficult calculation to make I would think given the variables and how they could change?

Speaking for myself, it wouldn't just be cost, it's the convenience factor that I have talked about a lot. If you gave me the money to buy a brand new car today, and it could be my only car (if it was for a second car it would almost certainly be an EV), would I choose an EV? For me, no, I would buy Petrol.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

That makes no sense at all.

Point 9 how long do you think they spend plugging in and unplugging at home?

 

[Rorschach]

Point 9 how long do you think they spend plugging in and unplugging at home?

I wasn't talking about plugging in at home.

 

[Geoff_S]

The influence of weather on charging time is not something I was aware of. Is this a significant effect?

In winter I allow a 20% drop in range compared to summer

Edit: Oops, I just reread your post. I read "range" and not "time". Ignore me.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Economics of EVs requires a number of unstable and uncertain assumptions. The current fairly stable fuel cost assumption:

• Standard mid-size ICE vehicle. MPG (say) 50mpg. Annual mileage 10k. Fuel cost £6 per gallon. Fuel cost pa £1200.
• For an EV. Consumption 3 miles per KWH. Cost per KWH 15p (domestic rate). Annual mileage 10k. Electricity cost pa £500.

Annual saving for an average domestic charging customer £700.

Now for the imponderables:

• many new car purchasers trade in their cars every (say) 3 years and may be unconcerned about whole life savings.
• uncertainty over how long the running cost advantage for EVs will continue. 3 years may be plausible, but 10 years+ is unlikely
• trade in values are difficult to estimate as they are impacted by legislation and future running cost savings compared with ICE
• charges per KWH vary hugely depending on user circumstances - eg: off peak domestic vs premium commercial

So who may find EVs attractive right now:

• the environmentally empathetic (not an economic argument)
• high mileage drivers with domestic recharging (faster payback)
• contract deals where the total monthly cost is easily compared

 

[D_W]

Point 9 how long do you think they spend plugging in and unplugging at home?

I always end up putting gas in the car for the mrs. Two left turns at stop lights to do it in a high traffic area. Plugging a car in would be an improvement.

I ride public trans to work, so I'm rarely out driving one of the cars myself to fill it along the way.

 

[D_W]

Economics of EVs requires a number of unstable and uncertain assumptions. The current fairly stable fuel cost assumption:

• Standard mid-size ICE vehicle. MPG (say) 50mpg. Annual mileage 10k. Fuel cost £6 per gallon. Fuel cost pa £1200.
• For an EV. Consumption 3 miles per KWH. Cost per KWH 15p (domestic rate). Annual mileage 10k. Electricity cost pa £500.

Annual saving for an average domestic charging customer £700.

Now for the imponderables:

• many new car purchasers trade in their cars every (say) 3 years and may be unconcerned about whole life savings.
• uncertainty over how long the running cost advantage for EVs will continue. 3 years may be plausible, but 10 years+ is unlikely
• trade in values are difficult to estimate as they are impacted by legislation and future running cost savings compared with ICE
• charges per KWH vary hugely depending depending the user circumstances - eg: off peak domestic vs premium commercial

So who may find EVs attractive right now:

• the environmentally empathetic (not an economic argument)
• high mileage drivers with domestic recharging (faster payback)
• contract deals where the total monthly cost is easily compared

We have no cars in the us that are mid sized and get 50 mpg. Esp if there is any urban or suburban driving. Highway driving for the better mid sized cars is closer to 35 and combination would be 25. I realize our gallon is slightly smaller than yours and our mid sized car is slightly larger.

That said, the ev right now is in early adopter phase. The only way someone saves money with it is if they were thinking of getting an equivalently priced or higher ice car. But there's no shortage of cars here in the states that hit 45 to 50k sticker price.

 

[Lockyear2810]

I doubt at current prices you would ever break even.
How long before you need to spend a ridiculous amount on a new battery?
As more people switch to EV the cost of charging MUST increase to make up the short fall in revenue generated from the duty on traditional fuels.
I think all EVs should have several identical batteries that can be changed at a fuel station.
Something akin to a car wash.
You could then have unlimited range and you would never own the batteries.
Thus never be faced with the staggering cost of buying a new one.

 

[NewbieRaf]

I’m a Tech guy at heart so for me it’s just the believe that EVs are the future, having said that clearly there is a way to go although cell technology is moving quick. Another consideration I had was the road tax (UK). At 450 pounds per year for my new car it’s expensive but still not as expensive as paying well over 60k for an EV

 

[Skydivermel]

@Skydivermel
Some interesting info there, thank you.

I wonder how successful a charging station will be though. You say 44 mins for your charge, who is going to sit around for that long? I can sort of understand it at a motorway services where you might want to have something to eat, use the toilet and stretch your legs (that being said my average stay at a services is under 15 minutes) but the equivalent of a petrol station taking 44 mins, and that is assuming there is a free charge point to use.

I filled my car with petrol today at the supermarket, I took note of the time on the cars clock, drove in at 11.41, getting ready to leave at 11.45, clicked over to 11.46 as I started moving. Yes there was a free bay to use but that is putting in about 3/4 of a tank and paying (at pump). Hard to compete with that.

On a long journey I like to factor in a stop including food, drink and the toilet break. The GridServe forecourt has a post office, costa, WH Smiths, Toilets, showers, rest areas, and a very good walk thru display about the future of electric cars. I appreciate not all service stops have these type of facilities but it's early days yet. I do believe we'll head that way thou. With the recent govt announcement about no more ICE cars from 2030 I think it'll focus the minds. Necessity is the mother of all invention as they say.

 

[Skydivermel]

The influence of weather on charging time is not something I was aware of. Is this a significant effect?

In the UK, not really. There's very little significance compared to say a Scandinavian winter. If it's what we would call really cold here -4deg C then the charge time would be around 10% longer.

 

[D_W]

I’m a Tech guy at heart so for me it’s just the believe that EVs are the future, having said that clearly there is a way to go although cell technology is moving quick. Another consideration I had was the road tax (UK). At 450 pounds per year for my new car it’s expensive but still not as expensive as paying well over 60k for an EV

Things must be marked up there. The base tesla here is $38k and $47k for extended range. Not sure where the credits are now (They're less), but in most states, you can probably take $2-$5k off of that. That's probably about 26k pounds to 32k pounds.

I don't think any of these vehicles will play well in the really cold areas unless they're driven regularly and have a garage to exist in when not being driven (they'd be fine then).

Still with all of the criticism about range, very few people complain when they drive gas vehicles less than optimally and get poor mileage. It's kind of interesting that nobody really seems to complain about that now. My BIL has the extended range tesla. He drive hard miles for an EV (lots of highway at high speed) and has a comfortable range of about 200 miles with some extra beyond that. In lower speed town driving, the total potential range is 350 miles. That assumes driving that consumes 0.21 kw/hr per mile. I think BIL is somewhere just under 0.3. The way he drives (90 mile round trip to work), the EV is convenient (drive home, plug in, no gas stations, which would be pretty regular and annoying with a 90 mile round trip commute every day) but not optimal in terms of efficiency. With the driving software, I think his price was around $50k less a $7500 credit at the time.

Will he ever recover his initial cost? I doubt it. Toyota makes a prius that gets 53 highway here (our mileage estimates are far more honest than the UK mileage estimates), 58 in the city and the base price is about half of the extended range tesla. It would halve fuel cost for most people (which comes out to about $1000-$1500 of savings per year in the US). Base price is $25k here. That would seem to make more sense - for a high mileage driver, it would actually recover its purchase price in fuel over a typical mid sized car here (someone driving 20k miles per year).

I'm sure tesla's base vehicle price will continue to drop for the 3 as they increase overseas manufacturing and more assembly than production is done in the US and other expensive markets.

 

[MikeJhn]

Someone mentioned about noise for boy racers, there is an engine noise app available for electric model scale aircraft, a model scale electric Lancaster just does not look or sound right when it's almost silent.

 

[D_W]

Someone mentioned about noise for boy racers, there is an engine noise app available for electric model scale aircraft, a model scale electric Lancaster just does not look or sound right when it's almost silent.

When I was young, you would see something like this from time to time (but huge). Batteries weren't good back then, and the engines were always glow radial or some type of gasoline that wasn't quite right (maybe twins for each engine).

Then, I saw not too long ago an electric version of a four engined bomber. It sounded like bees.

The kero fueled turbines on the other hand - they'll deafen just like a real one. Really uncomfortable. 9 pounds of thrust makes noise like 9000.

 

[D_W]

I doubt at current prices you would ever break even.
How long before you need to spend a ridiculous amount on a new battery?

Never. Tesla originally planned older batteries to have 90% capacity remaining at 180k miles. A few taxi companies who put gobs of miles on teslas (model S) found them to have more than 90% of original range at 300k miles. Only things advised against by tesla (constant fast charging only, etc) degrade the batteries any significant amount.

The same thing used to be said about the toyota prius because it's constantly charging and discharging a small battery. The charging system on those cars is usually what gives up when they're old, but the batteries generally need replacing only if they're damaged in a wreck.

Car and driver did a re-test of a 9 year old prius with 200k miles on it in 2011 (I think the car was a 2002) and found no difference in acceleration or efficiency.

as the range increases on tesla cars with subsequent generations, tesla's target for 90% is moving to about 500k miles in cars (they're shooting for a million in heavy trucks). Their target for % retained range is conservative in most cases. I don't know anyone with a half million mile car, though I know there have been cars driven over a million, and a toyota pickup that I think went past a million).

The vehicles in the US that had that kind of longevity are mostly gone (older mechanical diesel pickups would last about 300k miles, as would a 300-six from ford in pickups, and the ford crown victoria platform (panther) here can be found used with original bits in it running fine with 250-300k miles.

I don't think the current generation of toyota and honda cars (due to cheap plastic parts, etc) will last that long, even if the engines can.

 

[Just4Fun]

The current fairly stable fuel cost assumption:

• Standard mid-size ICE vehicle. MPG (say) 50mpg. Annual mileage 10k. Fuel cost £6 per gallon. Fuel cost pa £1200.
• For an EV. Consumption 3 miles per KWH. Cost per KWH 15p (domestic rate). Annual mileage 10k. Electricity cost pa £500.

Annual saving for an average domestic charging customer £700.

That is good as far as it goes, but fuel is not the only cost saving to be had. Maintenance is said to be much cheaper on EVs, tax can be lower, I don't know if insurance is more or less than for an ICE car, etc.
Not really complex calculations; getting believable & reliable data is the key though and not something I have personally attempted.

 

[Skydivermel]

That is good as far as it goes, but fuel is not the only cost saving to be had. Maintenance is said to be much cheaper on EVs, tax can be lower, I don't know if insurance is more or less than for an ICE car, etc.
Not really complex calculations; getting believable & reliable data is the key though and not something I have personally attempted.

That's a good point to consider. Road tax £0.00 (although I suspect it will at some time be added to BEV's once a few more are on the road). Servicing costs are minimal. Obviously with an ICE car the older it gets and the more mileage it has will increase the overall running costs. With the current Covid pandemic I again suspect that government will increase the fuel costs in an attempt to claw back some of the money spent and ditto with road tax. Servicing costs for a BEV are much lower than an ICE car/van. The dealers don't like it as it's one of their main sources of revenue. When I brought my BEV the dealer asked me if I wanted a service package (which helps with the warranty) so I said yes. When he produced the cost it was comparable to an ICE car. Some robust discussions took place and I walked away with a 3 year service plan for less that half what he quoted. Insurance costs (in my case) are around 10% lower compared to an ICE car.

 

[Rorschach]

That's a good point to consider. Road tax £0.00 (although I suspect it will at some time be added to BEV's once a few more are on the road). Servicing costs are minimal. Obviously with an ICE car the older it gets and the more mileage it has will increase the overall running costs. With the current Covid pandemic I again suspect that government will increase the fuel costs in an attempt to claw back some of the money spent and ditto with road tax. Servicing costs for a BEV are much lower than an ICE car/van. The dealers don't like it as it's one of their main sources of revenue. When I brought my BEV the dealer asked me if I wanted a service package (which helps with the warranty) so I said yes. When he produced the cost it was comparable to an ICE car. Some robust discussions took place and I walked away with a 3 year service plan for less that half what he quoted. Insurance costs (in my case) are around 10% lower compared to an ICE car.

Road tax is £0 for now, that won't last long.

As for running costs increasing on ICE cars with age, my car is 13 years old, it's running costs are the same today as they were when new. The only things that have been replaced are exactly the same as would be replaced on an EV except for oil of course and the cost of that is probably offset by the cheaper tyres I can use.

 

[Lons]

Road tax £0.00 (although I suspect it will at some time be added to BEV's once a few more are on the road). Servicing costs are minimal.
That isn't 100% accurate.

Road fund licence is £0 but only if the BEV has a list price including any factory fitted extras under £40K, anything over that will from the second period of taxing be liable for a premium tax of £325 pa at todays rate for a period of 5 years so any premium BEV will like it's comparable ICE be paying road tax. That carries over to any new owner buying the car s/h within that period. In the case of my car v EVQ the difference therefore is £140 pa not £465.

I would also question how much cheaper servicing will be in the real world. Currently the only real difference on a modern car is oil and filters so over the 3 year period I usually own a car it would need to be a huge variation to make any difference. Brakes, fluid, tyres and mechanical parts will be just as liable to maintenance with little other difference unless the vehicle is high mileage and needs cam belts, clutch etc.

In September I did similar comparisons as NewbieRaf as my car has just turned 3 years old but I've now decided to wait a while longer. I have a GLC 250D with a very high specification and to replace like for like would be a list price of around £49k however I found without too much pressure I could get that down to just over £41k and have no doubt based on experience there's still some wiggle room, The equivalent EQC which is based on my car has a list price of £75k and the best I could get including government £3k incentive was more than £72K. That was excluding the value of my GLC which is the same whichever one I would buy.
So a difference of at least £31k ( or 77% more expensive ) is financial stupidity on a car that would cover 6000 miles pa as whatever extra charges they might throw at ICEs it just isn't possible to save £10k a year by buying a premium BEV to suit my needs and what I want from a car. AT THE MINUTE as the situation is fluid and that was 3 months ago following the same excercise carried out before buying my wife's new petrol Mini.

 

[CornishWoodworker]

EV s still a lifestyle choice. Until a 300 mile plus range is actually achieved, not perceived, then its a big no.
Depreciation on EV's are very high. Overall battery life still a relative unknown. Worldwide exploitation of the rare minerals required and their final disposal doesn't sit well. Please feel free and Google it.
The goverment will soon put a charge on and mandate a secondary electric meter to all medium to fast chargers installed in domestic properties, a higher charge per kw and higher VAT will apply to all electricity consumed through it.
The government will have to get its revenue which will be lost from fuel sales From somewhere and the motorist in whichever guise is their only cash cow.
Meanwhile back to Wood, must get into the garage and get the woodtools out to repair the Morgan.