Social distancing, .. what's that?

[RobinBHM]

World population in 1918 was 1.7 billion ish, and and an estimated 50 million died from the Spanish flu. We would need more than 150 million dead from coronavirus to equate numerically. It hasn't even managed 1 million yet. There are two possibilities: either there is going to be a sudden, inexplicably huge increase in deaths, or the coronavirus isn't even remotely like the Spanish flu. I wouldn't like to speculate which is the most likely.

You are making a claim not many people have died.......but that is based on the result of a massive global effort to reduce the rate of infection.

Do you not remember the images of Italian and Spanish hospitals at breaking point.
Do you not remember the mass graves in New York

What do you think would've happened if those regions had just carried on as normal. How do you think the hospitals would have coped?

 

[Trainee neophyte]

There is some debate on whether lockdown make any difference at all. Here's a good test for you: if you didn't have the media screaming at you 24/7 that you are about to die; if there wasn't the endless repetition that the epidemic is colossal and huge and world ending, would you actually know that there is an epidemic, pandemic crisis? Have you suddenly attended (or been forbidden from attending) a plethora of funerals? Are half the people in your street dead or debilitated? Is there a crisis in reality?

The answer where I live is a definite, absolute "No". It may be different where you live, but it probably isn't. The amount of fear being pushed to control the herd is somewhat overinflated compared to what reality suggests is actually happening.

Ask yourself if your terror of Covid19 is rational, and justified, based not on what you are told (because the media have a tendency to lie, exaggerate, create false narratives and engage in propaganda) but on what you have experienced. It is all subjective, and only you can come up with the answer for your particular situation. Bear in mind that every single person currently alive will most certainly die at some point, and about 1% of the world population die every year. This is normal and natural, and would be a disaster if it didn't happen. Images of convoys of trucks taking out the dead are impressive, but if you only have one coffin per truck, suddenly it isn't quite so dramatic. Do the maths, work on the numbers, make a decision based on what you believe to be reality. Don't immediately believe what other people claim is reality. As I see it, there are not sufficient dead people after 6 months to warrant destroying the world economy. More people will die from the effects than the cause. A pyrrhic victory if ever there was one.

I must not fear.
Fear is the mind-killer.
Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration.
I will face my fear.
I will permit it to pass over me and through me.
And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path.
Where the fear has gone there will be nothing.
Only I will remain.

 

[Rorschach]

Please avoid strawman logical fallacies, I didn't claim it was the same, an said as bad and backed up by a report published in a scientific journal.

Not a strawman, you said the young were affected by C19 like the Spanish Flu, they are demonstrably not, the young are not even affected as much as they are by seasonal Flu. It is not as bad as Spanish Flu, whether that changes we don't know we can only go by the facts of today which is what I am doing.

As to TN's point,have you seen people dropping like flies around you?

 

[RobinBHM]

Not a strawman, you said the young were affected by C19 like the Spanish Flu, they are demonstrably not, the young are not even affected as much as they are by seasonal Flu. It is not as bad as Spanish Flu, whether that changes we don't know we can only go by the facts of today which is what I am doing.

As to TN's point,have you seen people dropping like flies around you?

No, I did not say the young were affected by C19.

The young were affected far more by Covid than seasonal flu.

On a minority of people Covid creates an excessive immune response, which can have a devastating affect, severe organ damage or failure. If you think flu does that, please provide the evidence.

Why do you say you only go on facts of the day? I can't see anything you say is backed by scientific evidence.

 

[RobinBHM]

There is some debate on whether lockdown make any difference at all

There may be some debate, please back up what you say by some evidence.

The rest of your post is built on a series of logical fallacies: strawman arguments, ad hominem attacks etc etc.
Do you still get your income from tourism.....in which case you have a hidden agenda.

And your argument "less people died than by the intervention" is using false presentation of the data.

There has been a huge effort to lower the R value globally, so to use the numbers that did die is a false argument.

You are basically making a comparison between intervention and herd immunity. Well the vast majority of virologists say herd immunity would not have worked. Trump wants to try it in America, projected figures suggest that could result in 2 million deaths.



Your argument that intervention hasn't worked is not borne out by facts. South Korea, Singapore, Germany have taken a full scale government intervention and their death rates are lower and economic damage was lower.

Those countries had organised, well funded test and trace systems. That is the proper solution.

 

[russcelt]

How does one "isolate the old" when many require assistance with daily living, often from people who will visit several other, equally vulnerable people every day, or like myself, where I have to look after my mother, whilst at the same time trying to continue with other aspects of my life?
If a significant percentage of the population acts in a selfish & ignorant manner by failing to socially distance, wear a mask in shops & wash their hands, then it's almost impossible to shield the vulnerable.
Watching some cretin wipe their nose with their fingers, then get back hold of their supermarket trolley handle doesn't inspire confidence, nor does watching a mother & daughter pick up & put down multiple packs of Italian sausage before choosing ONE.
Hopefully a virus that only kills the wilfully ignorant, unthinking & selfish WILL come along & take out half the population.

"...the vast majority of the harm inflicted during this pandemic was due to government edicts and political-bureaucratic fearmongering, not the virus itself." — James Bovard
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[Rorschach]

No, I did not say the young were affected by C19.

The young were affected far more by Covid than seasonal flu.

On a minority of people Covid creates an excessive immune response, which can have a devastating affect, severe organ damage or failure. If you think flu does that, please provide the evidence.

Why do you say you only go on facts of the day? I can't see anything you say is backed by scientific evidence.

If you are going to contradict yourself and not bother to do any research then I am not going to engage with you further.

 

[RobinBHM]

If you are going to contradict yourself and not bother to do any research then I am not going to engage with you further.

I have done extensive research, that is why you don't want to debate with me.

You are finding it hard to argue against facts.

If you think Covid is merely innocuous, please back it up with links or evidence.

Do you know what excessive immune response is?
Do you know the research that shows the number of deaths had herd immunity been chosen

 

[artie]

I have done extensive research,

I don't know what avenues are open to you, but my only avenues are radio tv and the internet.

Radio and tv have an agenda of scaring the excrement from us and have been caught lying on numerous occasions, which leaves the internet.

No matter what position you take on masks, vaccines, social distancing, you will find an expert who agrees and another who disagrees.

So I am left to figure out for my self and act accordingly , rightly or wrongly.

Just one point because I have a life to live, regarding masks, there are many points but lets just take this one.
To comply with wishes of boris we should cover our faces while in a shop.

So put anything over your mouth and nose and you're good to go, as they say.

If it was a serious tactic to stop the spread of a disease we would have to wear a particular mask which would slow or stop the spread, not a hankie.

 

[FatmanG]

Here comes the resident moonball again!
The cabal, 1% or just evil c#$#s call them what you will shall be overjoyed reading this thread. Division, attacking each other, sarcasm and indifference. Job done I'd say.
People who are pandemic believers or believe SARS cov2 is just another typical flu like virus or against the draconian lockdown and financial ruin is because they are not at risk! Wrong I am at the highest risk. I should be in fear for my life disabled overweight man with an ILD and C.O.P.D. I was scared to death in the beginning seeing NY and Italy in what seemed like the Apocalypse. I was all for the lockdown in the beginning I thought it was necessary but as time has gone on my opinion has done a govt u turn. So much of what we are being spoon fed by the media is rubbish. Censorship, banning of therapeutic medicine, the only way out of this is a vaccines and likely to be mandatory were told! Why mandatory if the vaccines work then the only people at risk would be those who don't take it and have we lost so much control over our own lives we have to be injected against our own wishes? I read a comment on here about the opposite sides of this argument being extreme and most are somewhere in between or down the middle I think was said but there is no middle ground. This is either a killer virus so bad that everything has to be locked down or it isn't and life returns to normal herd immunity naturally occurs as it has always done. If Neil Ferguson believed his model that caused the world to shut down he wouldn't of been breaking the rules to meet his married wench! But OK were told to trust the scientific community. I trust nobody! Human beings are flawed I trust myself and my instincts have led me to research all the actors in this pandemic believers and none believers. Don't take it all on face value from anyone find out the stats and dissect them yourself. It will come out in the end. Like after 9/11 and the falsehoods that led to millions being maimed or killed throughout the world. All because of Saddam's WMDs. But like someone said earlier the whole scientific community can't be corrupt, they don't have to be! just a few loons at the top setting the agenda can cause absolute carnage. So forgive me and call me what you like! But my reasons for questioning the lockdown and the severity of the virus is not because I'm young and at no risk but because I have a son 2years since graduating from Sheffield uni and a 14yr old daughter that has just started her gave' GCSE's last Tuesday. Its their future, what future! I look at LA now and the tented villages already, we will end up like a 3rd world country. That scares me more than this virus.
I

 

[Trainee neophyte]

I think it is important to state first off that I don't want an angry, aggressive fight. I've got too much to do, and not enough time to invest in this, so apologies if I don't cover all your points individually.

There may be some debate, please back up what you say by some evidence.

Evidence of debate, or evidence that it didn't work? A few links which might supply one or the other, or perhaps both:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...r-course-pandemic-JP-Morgan-study-claims.htmlhttps://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/12/lockdown-fail-in-one-easy-graph/

The rest of your post is built on a series of logical fallacies: strawman arguments, ad hominem attacks etc etc.

Oh. Sorry about that. If you could be more specific, I could address the specific straw men, ad hominem (very sorry about those - certainly didn't meant to make baseless slurs on your good character) and logical fallacies. My main point is that you suggested this coronavirus as as lethal, deadly and all round scary as the Spanish Flu. I think it is about 150-200 times less lethal, but you could convince me otherwise with some data.

Do you still get your income from tourism.....in which case you have a hidden agenda.

I get some of my income from tourism, and I would think my agenda is about as unhidden as you could get. It not just tourism that has fallen off a cliff - it is everything. With government support running out now, the real effects are about to be seen. If the governments around the world print money to give to the masses to pretend all is well, the effects of that will be felt instead/all well. Tourism is a tiny, probably irrelevant part of this impending disaster.

You are basically making a comparison between intervention and herd immunity. Well the vast majority of virologists say herd immunity would not have worked. political name wants to try it in America, projected figures suggest that could result in 2 million deaths.

Are we allowed to mention Sweden? I know everyone is very rude about their failed policy, but they do seem to have found a different approach, and it does seem that it might be working.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...logist-says-world-went-mad-imposing-lockdownshttps://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
So in conclusion, firstly it was not my intention to throw any insults around, and I am appalled if you think that I did.

Secondly, I don't believe the current epidemic is as bad as the Spanish Flu - you will have to show me some data that proves otherwise before I think about changing my position.

Thirdly, I still believe that the best way forward is to allow the world to interact economically. Protect anyone who wants to be protected, but without economic activity there is no economy. Without an economy, there isn't much of anything. Like food, shelter, clothing, heating. The basics, in other words.

 

[artie]

Here's a good test for you: if you didn't have the media screaming at you 24/7 that you are about to die; if there wasn't the endless repetition that the epidemic is colossal and huge and world ending, would you actually know that there is an epidemic, pandemic crisis?

For months now I have been asking people I meet. "do you personally know anyone who died of covid?" Without fail they will say "A man died in such and such town or a friend of so and so died " etc.

I say that's not what I asked you, do you know personally anyone who died of, not with covid.

So far I have not had a yes.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

"...the vast majority of the harm inflicted during this pandemic was due to government edicts and political-bureaucratic fearmongering, not the virus itself." — James Bovard
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James Bovard!!!.....I have just had a little accident with my cup of tea (note to self - don't try drinking liquids while reading this thread)

 

[Woody2Shoes]

For months now I have been asking people I meet. "do you personally know anyone who died of covid?" Without fail they will say "A man died in such and such town or a friend of so and so died " etc.

I say that's not what I asked you, do you know personally anyone who died of, not with covid.

So far I have not had a yes.

I used to work with a healthy 72 year-old who died from C19 - he circulated amongst politicians in Westminster and caught it from them (sad irony) not long before Boris came down with it. A 45 year-old friend, who commuted to work in London by train every day, caught it in March and is still quite poorly with it. 15 people in my dad's care home tested positive for it (I've no idea how many got ill/died - we've never been told).

This bug is real enough for me, is circulating freely in the community, and is pernicious.

 

[Selwyn]

The success of keeping the R value down below 1, requires collective effort.

So yes the rules may be somewhat contradictory, but if we individually follow sensibly that will have a net benefit for everybody.


I hate all these peopel which claim "its no worse than flu" "its a scamdemic"

Its better than flu actually. Its killing way less that flu at the moment. Way less

 

[Terry - Somerset]

I have also asked how many do you personally know who have actually died, or people you know that personally know others who have died.

Thus far the answer is zero.

The reasons are simple:

• ~50k have died from a population of ~66m. About 1 in 1300
• most people have between 0 and 10 genuinely close friends
• widen that to those you are "familiar" with - about 50.

I know this is a simplistic average. The elderly are more likely to know other elderly people, many young adults may know nobody (other than very close family) over 30.

The government message initially put the fear of death into many - particularly the old and vulnerable. It also initially adopted a policy of trying to flatten the curve to avoid overwhelming the NHS.

The former needs to be modified as there is a better understanding of the vulnerability of different age groups, ethnicity, economic status etc.

"Flatten the curve" has morphed into "protect life at any cost".

This is simply not tenable - we need to accept the consequential impacts of restrictions on the community are non-trivial and will lead to alternative loss of lives, opportunity, relative poverty etc.

I am late 60s and vulnerable. But I question the wisdom of stalling economic and social interaction for all to extend (perhaps by only a few weeks or months) the lives of elderly and infirm.

No one wants the virus but it is here. Greater tolerance of the needs of the young by the elderly and vulnerable may be reciprocated by the young showing greater tolerance of the needs of others. Or I may simply be utterly naive!

The rhetoric which accompanies much of the debate promotes conflict and the skewed use of statistics on both sides simply reinforces entrenched positions. All quite destructive really!!

 

[Selwyn]

ah yes statistics, but couldn't you be pragmatic and substitute old with vulnerable? Then a 75 year old who regularly runs marathons won't lose his freedom.

You wouldn't be under law that at 75 is unable to leave home. Merely guided or recommended so you are aware of the risks. You can still do what you want, it is your life!

 

[billw]

Here comes the resident moonball again!
The cabal, 1% or just evil c#$#s call them what you will shall be overjoyed reading this thread. Division, attacking each other, sarcasm and indifference. Job done I'd say.
People who are pandemic believers or believe SARS cov2 is just another typical flu like virus or against the draconian lockdown and financial ruin is because they are not at risk! Wrong I am at the highest risk. I should be in fear for my life disabled overweight man with an ILD and C.O.P.D. I was scared to death in the beginning seeing NY and Italy in what seemed like the Apocalypse. I was all for the lockdown in the beginning I thought it was necessary but as time has gone on my opinion has done a govt u turn. So much of what we are being spoon fed by the media is rubbish. Censorship, banning of therapeutic medicine, the only way out of this is a vaccines and likely to be mandatory were told! Why mandatory if the vaccines work then the only people at risk would be those who don't take it and have we lost so much control over our own lives we have to be injected against our own wishes? I read a comment on here about the opposite sides of this argument being extreme and most are somewhere in between or down the middle I think was said but there is no middle ground. This is either a killer virus so bad that everything has to be locked down or it isn't and life returns to normal herd immunity naturally occurs as it has always done. If Neil Ferguson believed his model that caused the world to shut down he wouldn't of been breaking the rules to meet his married wench! But OK were told to trust the scientific community. I trust nobody! Human beings are flawed I trust myself and my instincts have led me to research all the actors in this pandemic believers and none believers. Don't take it all on face value from anyone find out the stats and dissect them yourself. It will come out in the end. Like after 9/11 and the falsehoods that led to millions being maimed or killed throughout the world. All because of Saddam's WMDs. But like someone said earlier the whole scientific community can't be corrupt, they don't have to be! just a few loons at the top setting the agenda can cause absolute carnage. So forgive me and call me what you like! But my reasons for questioning the lockdown and the severity of the virus is not because I'm young and at no risk but because I have a son 2years since graduating from Sheffield uni and a 14yr old daughter that has just started her gave' GCSE's last Tuesday. Its their future, what future! I look at LA now and the tented villages already, we will end up like a 3rd world country. That scares me more than this virus.
I

Bloody hell.

 

[RobinBHM]

Its better than flu actually. Its killing way less that flu at the moment. Way less

There has been massive effort to reduce the R value to flatten the curve to stop the NHS being overwhelmed.

So you making trying to make a comparison of false equivalence.....unless of course you can point to a flu pandemic where the world put measures in place to slow the spread.

 

[artie]

There has been massive effort to reduce the R value to flatten the curve to stop the NHS being overwhelmed.

So you making trying to make a comparison of false equivalence.....unless of course you can point to a flu pandemic where the world put measures in place to slow the spread.

Surley the actions taken to reduce covid, should also reduce flu?
That is if they actually worked.