One-jab efficacy questions

[Jake]

Sorry, I genuinely don't understand why we need the virus to circulate in the young and healthy. Doesn't a larger pool make for more chance of new variants evolving?

It is utter nonsense as usual. Immunity is immunity (post efficacy issues as pointed out by Robin), and more virus circulating is as you say just added immune pressure.

 

[Jonm]

Not looking for a fight here. The figures are never absolute, I tend to believe that in this country we get reasonably accurate figures but that they are often spun to a political agenda. The reported figures for the last flu season are really interesting, almost zero deaths in hospital with flu as the only cause is unheard of. We can argue about the accuracy but it's a certainty that flu deaths were down dramatically. The why is what matters, some who would have died were already dead, some were isolating so never caught it, some like me had the flu jab for the first time ever, a massive increase in vaccination so we didn't die of it or spread it. It's proof that for flu at least lock down and vaccination worked. Interestingly and I'm not trying to extrapolate one case into nationally significant figures my friend caught covid early on and spent 28 days in intensive care, very lucky to be alive yet tested negative at the time for the disease but later at discharge positive for the antibodies. If Chris had died he would not have counted in the national total. As I said the figures can never be precise.

I think we do have to be careful of how we interpret the figures.

In a fast moving pandemic there has to be a way of counting deaths which is consistent, quick and easy to apply so that trends can be established very quickly. Waiting for coroners reports and interpreting them would be far too slow.

The current definition for this purpose is “deaths that occurred within 28 days of a positive lab-confirmed COVID test”. This is clearly stated when the government reports the numbers and is prominent in bbc reports of the numbers.

Clearly with this simplified measuring tool, there is a big difference between deaths due directly to Covid and those where it had no impact whatsoever, and a lot of grey areas in between. As we come out of lockdown (with a high level of vaccination), coronavirus cases will rise, and inevitably “Deaths that occurred within 28 days of a positive lab-confirmed COVID test” will increase. At that point the actual cause of death becomes important. We do not want to re-impose restrictions because of a measuring method.

It is possible that with a very high number of vaccinated, elderly people who are, say 85% protected from catching Covid that numbers of vaccinated people will exceed unvaccinated people for “deaths that occurred within 28 days of a positive lab-confirmed COVID test”. The anti vaxxers will have fun with that.

 

[Blackswanwood]

In a fast moving pandemic there has to be a way of counting deaths which is consistent, quick and easy to apply so that trends can be established very quickly. Waiting for coroners reports and interpreting them would be far too slow.

I think this is spot on. The published numbers all have a clear label if people can be bothered to look. Unfortunately the label doesn't fit in a soundbite which creates confusion and opportunity for people to include their slightly amended version to support their unsubstantiated theory as fact. Good job no one comes on here and engages in that sort of behaviour

Robin mentioned the passage of time which prompted me to look back on my phone at the memes I got a year ago...

 

[hairy]

That advice didn't age well.....

Professor Spector, who works in genetic epidemiology research, said:"Two weeks after the Cheltenham Festival and the Liverpool game against Atletico Madrid, we saw the number of people reporting COVID symptoms in the COVID Symptom Study app from those particular areas increase and both areas became key hotspots in the UK.

"This suggests that both events were, in part, a cause for the spread of COVID-19 in those areas."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...drid-led-to-spike-in-covid-19-deaths-11994875

Thank goodness the government and its scientific advisors got with the programme not longer after.

UK news article today says "Just 15 people among the 58,000 who took part in government run trials for re-opening large events tested positive for Covid" "The trials included the FA Cup final and a semi final at Wembley, the Brit awards at the O2 arena in London and DJ sets at the Circus nightclub in Liverpool."
I would guess at events like that not many would have been vaccinated being mostly under 50? The pictures show young clubbers mask free and rammed together having a great time

 

[hairy]

Snipped

I think we do have to be careful of how we interpret the figures.

The current definition for this purpose is “deaths that occurred within 28 days of a positive lab-confirmed COVID test”. This is clearly stated when the government reports the numbers and is prominent in bbc reports of the numbers.

As I said in post 834 here;
ONS " Death certification as involving COVID-19 does not depend on a positive test. "
PHE "....all deaths where a positive test for COVID-19 has been confirmed"

 

[Selwyn]

Sorry, I genuinely don't understand why we need the virus to circulate in the young and healthy. Doesn't a larger pool make for more chance of new variants evolving?

That advice didn't age well.....

Professor Spector, who works in genetic epidemiology research, said:"Two weeks after the Cheltenham Festival and the Liverpool game against Atletico Madrid, we saw the number of people reporting COVID symptoms in the COVID Symptom Study app from those particular areas increase and both areas became key hotspots in the UK.

"This suggests that both events were, in part, a cause for the spread of COVID-19 in those areas."
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...drid-led-to-spike-in-covid-19-deaths-11994875

Thank goodness the government and its scientific advisors got with the programme not longer after.

They could have banned large gatherings for a bit. They didn't need to remove seats from swings and close down business and shops.

 

[Selwyn]

The slight issue that you seem to have missed is that natural infection has killed millions of people.

Lots of things kill people every day. You cannot live without risk. Covid is not the only cause of death in this country.

 

[Selwyn]

Not looking for a fight here. The figures are never absolute, I tend to believe that in this country we get reasonably accurate figures but that they are often spun to a political agenda. The reported figures for the last flu season are really interesting, almost zero deaths in hospital with flu as the only cause is unheard of. We can argue about the accuracy but it's a certainty that flu deaths were down dramatically. The why is what matters, some who would have died were already dead, some were isolating so never caught it, some like me had the flu jab for the first time ever, a massive increase in vaccination so we didn't die of it or spread it. It's proof that for flu at least lock down and vaccination worked. Interestingly and I'm not trying to extrapolate one case into nationally significant figures my friend caught covid early on and spent 28 days in intensive care, very lucky to be alive yet tested negative at the time for the disease but later at discharge positive for the antibodies. If Chris had died he would not have counted in the national total. As I said the figures can never be precise.

Do we do a pcr test for influenza on everyone in a care home every week? Do we continually test people for flu via PCR test upon death? As John Lee says in my video a lot of people expire in the end with a number of things ie comorbidities.

Its not unreasonable to suppose covid may push out influenza for a bit. I don't hear of any lobbying for zero influenza or lockdown for flu though.

 

[Selwyn]

Sorry, I genuinely don't understand why we need the virus to circulate in the young and healthy. Doesn't a larger pool make for more chance of new variants evolving?

Well the idea is that it develops antibodies better. The clinically vulnerable will remain so but the less vulnerable won't. We are all genetic survivors of the Spanish flu - that was nasty but its not to the survivors of it.

The idea that we are free of virus' and somehow better off totally protected from virus' isn't true. The clinically vulnerable would be because it gives them an extra lifespan.

 

[Selwyn]

Looking back at those announcements....seems a lifetime ago.

Goodness me what a year its been.

I can remember watching the news around new year 2020 talking about Wuhan....I just watched it, like you do - idly thinking it was another of those Asian viruses, nothing to do with me.

Even when the first case was announced in UK, it never occurred to me what was to come.

Whilst glued to the telly on Wuhan and stuck in your bedroom you have missed out on the massive survival rates of Covid especially for those under 60. More especially for those under 50.

People have been circulating with no masks after March 2020 with massively declining amounts of virus.

 

[Jonm]

UK news article today says "Just 15 people among the 58,000 who took part in government run trials for re-opening large events tested positive for Covid" "The trials included the FA Cup final and a semi final at Wembley, the Brit awards at the O2 arena in London and DJ sets at the Circus nightclub in Liverpool."
I would guess at events like that not many would have been vaccinated being mostly under 50? The pictures show young clubbers mask free and rammed together having a great time

I think it is a Telegraph article behind a paywall. The Sun says “Out of the 58,000 people who attended the events, such as the World Snooker Championship, just 15 positive Covid cases have so far been recorded, sources told the Telegraph.” It also says “And further positive tests could emerge from the most recent events - such as the FA Cup final last weekend”

It sounds like good news but I am always wary of “sources” without defining who they are. Perhaps the Telegraph article defines them. No doubt we shall find out more when official reports are released. As I understand it everyone attending was tested beforehand.

 

[alanpo68]

Lots of things kill people every day. You cannot live without risk. Covid is not the only cause of death in this country.

Did you not see what happened in Italy when their Health service was overwhelmed. Without a lockdown and other mitigation that would have happened here. Look at what happened in certain areas of the USA, Brazil and India where the risks of COVID were played down.

COVID may not be the only cause of death in this Country but it is one of the few causes of death that spreads exponentially.

 

[alanpo68]

Whilst glued to the telly on Wuhan and stuck in your bedroom you have missed out on the massive survival rates of Covid especially for those under 60. More especially for those under 50.

People have been circulating with no masks after March 2020 with massively declining amounts of virus.

People have not been circulating in Wuhan without masks since march 2020.

This picture was taken on the 23rd of January 2021.

From the same article.

Since the end of the lockdown, Wuhan has largely been spared further outbreaks, something residents such as chemistry teacher Yao Dongyu attribute to heightened awareness resulting from the traumatic experience of last year.

 

[RobinBHM]

Clearly with this simplified measuring tool, there is a big difference between deaths due directly to Covid and those where it had no impact whatsoever, and a lot of grey areas in between

It opens up the ability for Covid sceptics to interpret the date to fit their argument.

The reality is assigning primary cause of death is difficult and thus death rate metrics have to be considered along with other metrics to build a true picture of a pandemic.

In any case, death rates don't consider long term health problems for Covid sufferers.

 

[RobinBHM]

The pictures show young clubbers mask free and rammed together having a great time

Every single one of them had to have a PCR test.

 

[RobinBHM]

UK news article today says "Just 15 people among the 58,000 who took part in government run trials for re-opening large events tested positive for Covid" "The trials included the FA Cup final and a semi final at Wembley, the Brit awards at the O2 arena in London and DJ sets at the Circus nightclub in Liverpool

That is rather missing the point I was making and out of context to the post stream

Rorschach made the claim he was only promoting the govts advice of over a year ago.....well back before March 23 pro lockdown 2020, the govt first chose herd immunity and had a lax approach....resulting in the UK having amongst the worst death rates in the world.......hence I said "that didn't age well".

 

[RobinBHM]

Well the idea is that it develops antibodies better

Not better than the vaccine.

The evidence proves it.

 

[Rorschach]

Not better than the vaccine.

The evidence proves it.

Wrong.

 

[RobinBHM]

u have missed out on the massive survival rates of Covid especially for those under 60. More especially for those under 50.

my niece, an NHS radiographer spent almost all of January this year doing CT scans of Covid patients....people in their 30s, 40s, 50s, 60's etc, She said the patients all had nasty pneumonia spots on their lungs, many were really ill and pretty much all of them that were in acute wards ended up with long term Covid.

 

[RobinBHM]

Wrong.

Rorschach, did you ever go to school, further education or university? ....if so, I seriously wondered how you got, as you seem totally to have a complete inability to absorb facts, data or evidence.......it must be a real hindrance in your life.

I posted the evidence in post 975

Here is a quote for you:
"Immune Response From mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Is More Robust Than Natural Infection"
https://www.contagionlive.com/view/...accines-is-more-robust-than-natural-infection
And another for you:
"Vaccines are capable of stimulating a better immune response than the natural infection"
https://www.immunology.org/news/immunity-and-covid-19-what-do-we-know-so-far
Four studies all show superior protection against variants from vaccines

https://www.businessinsider.com/fau...than-natural-infection-alone-2021-5?r=US&IR=T