Who is in and who is out?

[Trafalgar]

I've been reading about all of this stuff, especially with regard to Scotland, and I got curious about economic statistics so I looked some up. There are 25 states in the United States that have a higher annual GDP than Scotland. My state, Tennessee, is one of them. Surely, England can do without Scotland can't it? Good God if it can't.... And the rest of Europe is salivating to have Scotland stay in the EU and their annual GDP is less than Wisconsin's, or Oregon's, or Tennessee's? This is some crazy sheet.. Scotland's GDP is rounding error for the United States. I mean, come on.

 

[Inoffthered]

I've been reading about all of this stuff, especially with regard to Scotland, and I got curious about economic statistics so I looked some up. There are 25 states in the United States that have a higher annual GDP than Scotland. My state, Tennessee, is one of them. Surely, England can do without Scotland can't it? Good God if it can't.... And the rest of Europe is salivating to have Scotland stay in the EU and their annual GDP is less than Wisconsin's, or Oregon's, or Tennessee's? This is some crazy sheet.. Scotland's GDP is rounding error for the United States. I mean, come on.

If you look at it logically, Scotland would not want leave the UK to join the EU. However, the Scots Nats don't do logical and they would cut their nose off to spite their face.
They hate being governed by Westminster (even tho' they have devolved powers in their own parliament) even though they have a disproportionate number of MPs in Westminster given their population and they obstruct legislation that has no direct impact on Scotland just because they can. They would prefer to be ruled by the EU but whether the EU could pay them what they suck out of the UK via the Barnett Formula is doubtful.
Imho if they want to leave they can go.

 

[Noel]

Boris, Gove et all have managed to come up with a bit of a plan...published in the Telegraph:

I cannot stress too much that Britain is part of Europe, and always will be. There will still be intense and intensifying European cooperation and partnership in a huge number of fields: the arts, the sciences, the universities, and on improving the environment. EU citizens living in this country will have their rights fully protected, and the same goes for British citizens living in the EU.

British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.
The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation: the vast and growing corpus of law enacted by a European Court of Justice from which there can be no appeal. This will bring not threats, but golden opportunities for this country – to pass laws and set taxes according to the needs of the UK.

Yes, the Government will be able to take back democratic control of immigration policy, with a balanced and humane points-based system to suit the needs of business and industry. Yes, there will be a substantial sum of money which we will no longer send to Brussels, but which could be used on priorities such as the NHS. Yes, we will be able to do free trade deals with the growth economies of the world in a way that is currently forbidden.

It appears he does not want to actually leave the EU (what was that referendum about?) but basically wants to cherry pick all that is part of the EU package today, pay less and not abide by the rules. Access to the single market but limit free movement....currently one with the other to gain full access. Not be part of the EC of Justice and laws? All the benefits but no rules? Bit like going into your local Tesco and telling the customer service person you don't agree with the rules in the small print of the Club vouchers you are using to get discount on that nice BBQ....
As someone said elsewhere: does the UK now own the EU?
More watering down of pre ref promises will be needed (or just ditch the lot of them, might be easier).


Full article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... --and-alw/

 

[Random Orbital Bob]

Starting to sound suspiciously like Custard's "Yes Minister" summary of the direction isn't it

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Very astute article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the (pro-Brexit) Telegraph. He puts political and legal flesh on the theoretical bones of how Brexit will happen without really happening at all.

-Prime Minister Boris (or whoever) advocates going back to the pre-Maastricht rules on migration, so there's a right to work rather than free migration under the banner of EU citizenship. So no change then for all the industrious Poles who want to come, but the politicians can still spin us a story that they've saved us from an invasion of millions of benefit scroungers. And if they need more migration ammunition they can introduce an Australian points style system for non-EU immigrants, that would sound impressive but in reality it's not that different to what exists today.

-This is increasingly being described as the "soft Brexit" option, it would be acceptable to the majority of parliamentarians, and furthermore they'll rightly claim they have a duty to act for everyone, and that includes the remain vote as well as the exit vote.

-As well as Parliament this would certainly get the support of the Trades Unions, the City, and Industry.

-Furthermore there's a special duty of care actually written into the devolution settlements of Scotland and Northern Ireland. So a nervous politician could claim to angry Leave voters that his hands were tied, the referendum after all was only advisory, but there is a legal duty to protect the wishes of Scotland and NI.

-There'd be some ceremonial scrapping of some peripheral EU legislation, trivial stuff like curly bananas or high powered vacuum cleaners, enough to be able to say "look, we really have taken back control".

-Francois Villeroy de Galhau from the European Central Bank is already making encouraging overtures suggesting this route would preserve the passporting rights for the UK financial services industry, and the powerful German lobbying group, the BDI, is also suggesting this is the way to go, allowing two way trade between the UK and EU to be maintained virtually unchanged.

-Significantly the next PM will be emphasising the degree to which we're all conveniently playing by rules set not by the EU, but by global bodies above the EU; like the World Trade Organisation, Financial Stability Board, and Basel Banking Committee.

-Most important of all is Chancellor Merkel, and her mumsy directive "there is no need to be nasty", this trumps the federalist rage of Jean Claude Juncker so we can safely discount him.

-There's no doubt that Italy are desperate for just such a compromise, some of their banks suffered share price falls on Friday greater than in the post-Lehman mess, so their vote is virtually in the bag already.

Anyone who remembers "Yes Minister" will recognise immediately that this is almost certainly the way it will all play out. Brexit does really happen...just nothing actually changes.

Hear, hear. All that fuss for f.a.
Wonder how much the whole thing cost? Probably a year or two of EU contributions when you factor in all the lost production. I'm pretty sure that Cameron owes me a couple of grand given the amount of time I've downed tools.

Pity the EU didn't have sense to think this way before it all blew up (as it obviously was going to) except of course that they are too full of themselves to think beyond the grand Project Europe.

 

[swagman]

The USA needs to keep their comments in check on the Brexit result ; if they vote to make Donald Trump the next President of the United States there will be absolute chaos around the world. You have the likes of China and Russia sitting back waiting for someone like a Trump to trigger the next world conflict. http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_ ... -trump.jpg

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Scotland is currently estimated to have a GDP deficit of approx 10%. Aside from the fact that this is well outside convergence criteria for joing the Euro, the last thing the EU and Euro need now is another basket case economy.

But politics often trumps common sense .........

 

[MIGNAL]

And that deficit is unlikely to improve anytime soon. All the economic signs are looking downwards, with UK investment 'all but dried up'. We are going to have a very shaky 6 months - at the very least. What happens after that is anyone's guess.

 

[chipmunk]

The USA needs to keep their comments in check on the Brexit result ; if they vote to make Donald Trump the next President of the United States there will be absolute chaos around the world. You have the likes of China and Russia sitting back waiting for someone like a Trump to trigger the next world conflict. http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_ ... -trump.jpg

...Any "Trump effect" will be purged pretty quickly in the grand scheme of things - he will likely only get one presidential term IMHO.
Let's not kid ourselves - We'll still be negotiating our exit or still be feeling the fall-out from it when Trump has been and gone.

 

[bushwhaker]

Sorry guys. I am a foreigner, i live far as well. So venom, malevolence, cleavage. Regret, too bad.

 

[Inoffthered]

In the early days of the referendum there was a suggestion that the UK would vote out and then the EU would come to its senses and offer concessions.
Cameron and Juncker said this would not happen but when you look around and see what is happening now.....

The longer term effects of this will lie dormant until the next general election when I suspect a large number of politicians , both red and blue, will discover that the 17m that voted out will exercise their democratic right again and the make of the next parliament could look totally different to this one.

Interestingly an analysis of the referendum vote show that on a FPTP basis the result would have been a landslide for Brexit. That is something that the like of David Lammy and Anna Soubry should bear in mind while considering their long term future.

 

[Jacob]

....
Interestingly an analysis of the referendum vote show that on a FPTP basis the result would have been a landslide for Brexit. That is something that the like of David Lammy and Anna Soubry should bear in mind while considering their long term future.

Well yes.
What has been brought to light more clearly than anything else is that politicos need to take note of the dissatisfaction and unease of a large sector of the population. They need to either correct errors of fact or to concede that things really are serious issues.
Personally I don't think immigration is a real issue, however much it plays on the minds of Brexiters, but housing, jobs, welfare, quality of life, education, opportunity, etc are big and real.
One failing of the EU (and our own lot) is the temptation to invest in flagship projects in run-down areas such as fancy mid city bridges and other amenities, which leave the outer city still run down and not a nice place to live and grow up in. We need more investment in human capital rather than hardware.
One very big failing is our own complete neglect of housing and the resultant bubble in prices - probably the most economically divisive issue of our times.

 

[Rhossydd]

....Personally I don't think immigration is a real issue,

That's probably due to where you live. The mid east coast see things very differently.
Sadly it's too easy to blame over stretched services on those that are using them and seem foreign, rather than the politicians that fail to make good plans and provision for a growing population.

 

[Jacob]

....Personally I don't think immigration is a real issue,

That's probably due to where you live. The mid east coast see things very differently.
Sadly it's too easy to blame over stretched services on those that are using them and seem foreign, rather than the politicians that fail to make good plans and provision for a growing population.

It seems that where there is least immigration there is most unease. Protests in Newcastle on Tyne - no immigrants go there anyway unless they are utterly desperate! They go to the mid east because there is work which the local population cannot handle.

 

[BearTricks]

Custard's prediction was spot on and, to be honest, I like it as a remain voter.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Yes. But as I said - Pity the EU didn't have sense to think this way before it all blew up (as it obviously was going to) except of course that they are too full of themselves to think beyond the grand Project Europe.
The downside being if that happened it would only postpone the inevitable, the upper echelons of the EU aren't prepared to abandon articles of core belief - that it is a political alliance not a mutual benefit society. There would again come a time they refused to budge, and the cycle repeats.

 

[AJB Temple]

Not sure that people have worked out the implications yet. If FTSE and pound stay under pressure, then pensioners who voted out will have voted for a quite significant pay cut in real terms. Recession seems likely: just the the negative City effects on the financial services industry may be enough to secure that. Most employers will adopt a risk averse stance and stop recruitment. I am thinking about doing the same but will wait a few days before making any definite decisions.

Interesting comments on Radio 4 this morning from pro-Brexit Peter Hargreaves. He reckons that UK companies with significant overseas earnings will make a killing from the materially devalued pound as UK remittances will be worth more. This of course depends on people doing business with those multinationals adopting a "business as usual" stance, which may well not happen. Devaluation will be something of a shock to many once the effects filter into real everyday costs.

Labour party is tearing itself apart and the pro Brexit tories are back peddling on NHS savings and controlling immigration. The fishermen seem happy. Not sure why as it won't stop the Spanish trawling everything in sight. It all looks a bit of a shambles really. Will take ages to settle down and we are reliant on the Germans to calm down the EU. Ironic really.

 

[Jacob]

....... that it is a political alliance not a mutual benefit society. ........

What is the difference?

 

[Phil Pascoe]

You don't know? Nor do they. That's the beginning of all this.

 

[Jacob]

You don't know? Nor do they. That's the beginning of all this.

Do you know yourself?