Will this thread get past the mods.

[devonwoody]

I keep hearing via the news or press that inflation is around 2.5/2.75%.


WHAT A LOAD OF B;@ls,

Everything I come across is about 10% plus.

Can we start a countrywide anti government inflation figure? :roll:

 

[mailee]

Count me in, robbing Bu****ers!

 

[Jake]

Count me in, robbing Bu****ers!

They are robbing you of your real inflation?

 

[Alf]

"Will this thread get past the mods."

I think if it occurs to you to ask the question, you already know the answer, don't you?

Cheers, Alf

 

[Adam]

The rules are "(3.) No political discussion
Over the years there has been one subject in particular that has caused a few heated debates on the forums and that is politics. For that reason political discussion or political comments in a thread are not acceptable. "

Stick just to inflation, or experiences of inflation and it may just be OK. Inflation does indeed affect us all, food, equipment, car prices, etc. But please folks, steer away from the political side of it, or we will dive in.

Adam

 

[Pecker]

The only man who ever entered the houses of parliment with honest intent was...







Guy Fawkes
:lol: :lol:

mark

 

[RogerM]

Disregarding the fact for a moment that the Chancellor's preferred measure of inflation seems to exclude anything that goes up in price (e.g. council tax is not included), the question also needs to be asked "Whose inflation?".

If you are in work, with no children, a small mortgage and you can walk/cycle to work, and you have a modern well insulated property which doesn't need heating during the day, inflation is probably quite low.

On the other hand, if you have an 80 mile commute, maybe not through your own choice but because your job moved, and you have a large mortgage and an old property with a 30 year old c/h system, and 2 children at university, I suspect your measure of inflation will be much higher.

Or if you are retired on a fixed income, living in a rural area, and you need to keep your house warm 24 hours a day for health reasons, I suspect it may be higher still.

The consumer price index includes a relatively low fixed percentage of the notional basket of goods for heating costs. It doesn't take into account the fact that as prices have risen the percentage of our incomes that are used for fuel has increased. So if for example domestic fuel is deemed to account for 8% of the basket of goods (I actually think it is less than that) - it only takes into account the increase in price on that 8%, and ignores the fact that fuel may now account for (say) 12% of the value of that basket of goods in the real world.

Whatever, with diesel up 15% (ish) in the last year, domestic heating oil up 30%, Council tax having doubled in the last 8 years, a tripling of University tuition fees, inflation figures of under 3% takes a bit of believing.

 

[PowerTool]

Very interesting reading,Roger - thanks for the info.

Andrew

 

[Anonymous]

when I question my suppliers about price rises a standard response nowadays seems to be "its due to the chinese buying up stock"!!!

 

[PowerTool]

"its due to the chinese buying up stock"!!!

Who last year,used over 90% of the worlds steel.
At work,we used to get tankcontainers built by UK firms,then South Africa became the country of choice,but now,the Chinese seem to have taken over the market :-k
And CIMC (China) produce tanks under licence from UBH (Burscough,Lancashire) so it's another case of copying someone elses design,then producing it cheaper.
Last year,we had a hundred new tanks built by UBH,and the price of steel went up that much from placing the order to delivering the last one,I think the last batch had no profit margin left in them.

Andrew

 

[Losos]

As Roger M has pointed out 'inflation' is a monster with many faces. It's bad news whichever way you meusere it.

The 'official' figures are I'm sure correct, but only for those people who buy only those things in the 'basket' for everyone else (Which is nigh on the whole population) inflation will be higher.

 

[devonwoody]

RogerM,
Your calculations possibly could mean that inflation is 10%.

If inflation figure issued states 2. 5% and increases to 2. 75% that is a 10% increase!!!!!!!!!!!

So is inflation 10%?

 

[RogerM]

RogerM,
Your calculations possibly could mean that inflation is 10%.

If inflation figure issued states 2. 5% and increases to 2. 75% that is a 10% increase!!!!!!!!!!!

So is inflation 10%?

Hmmm! Inflation on inflation. So by your argument John, if there was zero inflation for one period and in the next period it is 0.1%, that would be an infinite increase in percentage terms. Or if perhaps there was deflation of 1% (negative inflation) and then it went to +1% inflation, what would inflation be then by your definition?

The point I was really making is if we take 2 different households with different incomes but similar expenditure on essentials, your own personal measure of inflation would be different.

Say a professional person, taking home £3,000 per month, spends £120 per month on domestic fuel (gas, electricity, oil), that would represent 4% of his take home pay. If fuel rises by 25%, it will represent 5% of his take home pay - a 1% increase in his overall expenditure.

A pensioner on a pension of £120 per week who also spends £120 per month on fuel is spending 24% of their net income on fuel. Now if fuel rises by 25%, it will represent 30% of his net income - or a 6% increase in his overall expenditure.

Now, if you also factor in council tax which went up by over 10% for 5 consecutive years in Devon and apply the same logic (remembering that conveniently council tax is not included in the consumer prices index) the same principle would apply. The professional taking home £3,000 per month and paying £200 pm is paying 6.7% of his income in council tax. A 10% increase would increase this by just 0.67% of his net income.

On the other hand some pensioners are paying up to 40% of their net pension in council tax, so a 10% increase means that this would add a further 4% to their expenditure.

So, taking the 2 "big ticket" items of fuel and council tax in isolation, the professional is experiencing inflation of 1.67% and the pensioner inflation of 10%.

So, you can prove anything with statistics. To paraphrase Humpty Dumpty in Alice in Wonderland, Inflation is whatever the government says it is - they are the ones who set the rules that are used to measure it, Just don't expect it to have any bearing on your own reality!

 

[devonwoody]

Thanks Rogerm,
I am catching up with your way of calculating, and your final comments re statistics is similar to my own thoughts, "you can do anything with figures"

 

[Waka]

There are lies, lies, more lies & statistics

 

[Losos]

Waka - Absolutely right - wasn't the quote "Lies, dammed lies, & statistics" somebody correct me please if I'm wrong (A not unusual state of affairs in our house ) Oh, and who did say this originally :?: Was it Churchill :?:

 

[RogerM]

Waka - Absolutely right - wasn't the quote "Lies, dammed lies, & statistics" somebody correct me please if I'm wrong (A not unusual state of affairs in our house ) Oh, and who did say this originally :?: Was it Churchill :?:

It was originally attributed by Mark Twain, in his autobiography, to Benjamin Disraeli, although apparantly there is no record of it in Disraeli's writings.

 

[devonwoody]

Mr. Declan Curry, agreed with me this morning on the BBC news money section that most items now have increased by 10%.

So I still reckon an increase in inflation from 2.5% to 2.75% is a 10% increase :wink:

 

[sliver]

Doesn't matter who is in power at any given time, we are still at the mercy of what they tell us & what they want us to know.

cheers, sliver.