Hancock's Half Hour

[RogerS]

Please put me back on ignore Roger, thanks.

Why? Just because I'm highlighting the flaws and weaknesses in your posts ?

You didn't even read my post properly and I haven't got time for your nasty little posts.

Oh but I did read your post properly. You just don't like being taken to task for posting stuff that simply has no basis in reality. The thing is that you post exactly like Jacob. You throw out statements, without any backup references, as if you were Moses with his tablets of stone. Yet whenever anyone challenges your statement and produces relevant sources, you duck the issue and throw in a red herring and go off on another tangent.

You know..you're right. I'm putting you in lockdown. Please don't reply to any of my posts and we'll get along just fine.

 

[Rorschach]

I think you are the only nasty person I have come across on this forum.

 

[lurker]

Chaps,
Neither of you is coming out of this looking well

“E ain’t worf it “

 

[Trainee neophyte]

I thought it had all gone very quiet on the virus front.

I don't know if anyone saw the BMJ article? https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931

Only a third of the excess deaths seen in the community in England and Wales can be explained by covid-19, new data have shown.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) data,1 which cover deaths in hospitals, care homes, private homes, hospices, and elsewhere, show that 6035 people died as a result of suspected or confirmed covid-19 infection in England and Wales in the week ending 1 May 2020 (where deaths were registered up to 9 May), a decline of 2202 from the previous week.

Although the number of deaths in care homes has fallen for the second week in a row, more covid related deaths are being reported in care homes than in hospitals and are tailing off more slowly.

However, David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said that covid-19 did not explain the high number of deaths taking place in the community.

The article suggests that most of the deaths (two thirds) at due to people being flung out of hospital to make room for the huge influx of coronavirus victims that the "scientific experts" had predicted. Oops.

The conspiracy theorists seem to think that the pattern is going to be one month of freedom, followed by two months of lockdown, and repeat - for the next two years. Whether this is what happens or not remains to be seen, but quite how people are going to be able to eat on that regime also remains to be seen. Government are taking on new powers and more control; money is being created out of thin air (six trillion from the USA, with more to come, supposedly), and lockdown and travel restrictions are guarantee to gut the world economy for a decade. The stock markets, however, seem to be doing rather well, given the dire economic outlook. I saw something today which suggests that billionaires as a class have gained an additional half-trillion dollars in new wealth over the last month. Is that from the outstanding future earnings expected n the "new normal" economy, or just a trickle-down effect of throwing six billion newly minted dollars at the banking system?

(I'm feeling peevish today, as UK government has basically forbidden any overseas holidays this year - thanks for that. Cornish holiday cottages are going to be expensive this year.)

 

[Rorschach]

That doesn't surprise me, I said long ago that more people will die because of our reaction to C19 than actually from C19.

 

[RogerS]

I thought it had all gone very quiet on the virus front.

I don't know if anyone saw the BMJ article? https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1931

Only a third of the excess deaths seen in the community in England and Wales can be explained by covid-19, new data have shown.....

But other articles elsewhere in the BMJ suggest that the figures for deaths due to Covid are under-reported. In fact, you omitted a paragraph in the article that you linked to that raised questions in the differences that deaths are accounted for in England and Scotland.

Fact is...we will never know for sure. The only fact that we do know is that had we locked down a week earlier then there would be a lot more people still alive.

 

[Rorschach]

The only fact that we do know is that had we locked down a week earlier then there would be a lot more people still alive.

Ummm, no, that's not a fact.

 

[doctor Bob]

...................... and lockdown and travel restrictions are guarantee to gut the world economy for a decade.

I think you have seriously under estimated the impact of this recession, the worlds governments have seriously made a monumental balls up of all this. The youth of today will face long term economic devastation. Furloughed employees are generally loving it yet one in 4 is effectively unemployed.
Universities are being destroyed, as are airlines, restraunts, pubs, cinemas, theatres, shops, hospitality etc etc.
People are generally very slow to see a recession, I have spoken to plenty of people who say "it's not affecting me"..... of course it isn't you wally, give it a year.
Guys working from home refusing to come back into the office because WFH is going well and it suits them, they don't understand that now is the time to be sucking up to the boss as he has serious decisions to make.
I don't know of any bosses (reasonable size) who aren't looking to get rid of people and cut costs.
I've started to impliment changes, I reckon I can save £30,000 a year with little impact on my business, trucks have been returned as they were just for vanity, employment costs are being looked at big time, etc.
If you're sitting at home furloughed and loving it, good for you, enjoy the moment.
The fact the chancellor said you are going to see a recession like never before may give you a clue, normally it's said in a gentle manner "there maybe a slight downturn" he didn't pussy cat foot around.
If it lasts a decade I reckon we will have done alright.
As you can see from the above I think the cure has been worse than the disease, my opinion is mine and probably a load of dung and I hope i'm wrong.

 

[Chris152]

The fact the chancellor said you are going to see a recession like never before may give you a clue, normally it's said in a gentle manner "there maybe a slight downturn" he didn't pussy cat cat foot around.
If it lasts a decade I reckon we will have done alright.

In my simple world view it depends if/ how quickly the boffs can find a vaccine or at least therapeutic drugs. If quick, it might not be so terrible, but i can see it comparing to the Great Depression. (If they can't, well...)

So, trying to think positively, what would people's advice be to a capable youngster whose career choices are still wide open? For eg, is engineering still a good way to go? Presumably avoid the tourist industry for a while. Serious question, trying to get my head around all this...

 

[Rorschach]

In my simple world view it depends if/ how quickly the boffs can find a vaccine or at least therapeutic drugs. If quick, it might not be so terrible, but i can see it comparing to the Great Depression. (If they can't, well...)

Too late for that, damage is already done, indeed the damage is only just beginning, every day it gets worse.

 

[Chris152]

But could clearly get much worse again if there's no vaccine and humans can't sustain immunity for any real length of time.

 

[Rorschach]

Bob I hate to say it but I don't think you will be proved wrong, I hope you are, in fact I desperately hope I am wrong about a lot of things I have said. Quite of a lot of what I said has been wrong, sadly for the worse, I was optimistic, I am not anymore.

 

[Rorschach]

But could clearly get much worse again if there's no vaccine and humans can't sustain immunity for any real length of time.

Then that becomes the "new normal" and we go back to how life was for previous generations when we weren't so shielded from death and disease.

It won't continue forever, eventually enough vulnerable people will have died that it becomes a background disease like flu and we will just get on with life again.

 

[doctor Bob]

So, trying to think positively, what would people's advice be to a capable youngster whose career choices are still wide open? For eg, is engineering still a good way to go? Presumably avoid the tourist industry for a while. Serious question, trying to get my head around all this...

If pre university age, don't go. Universities will have to slash staff levels very quickly, they reckon numbers of students will be down 40% next year, no way they can survive without reducing staff levels, and social life will be rubbish. I wouldn't want to be leaving uni after 3 years of poor tuition with £60k of debt and the worry that you will have the possibility of awarded covid degrees, like the current O and A levels, are they "tarred" O and A levels who knows, maybe?
I'd be pushing for something in construction, America built itself out of the great depression maybe governments will have to do the same. Keeping employment up is the key.
My son is a scaffolder (19, apprentice) he's back at work and I hope i'm right, the thought of him being unemployed for 10 or more years would break my heart. I'm 54, I could get through living like a pauper. This is about the kids not us.

 

[Rorschach]

Good advice from Bob, avoid University, too expensive and probably not useful. If the career choice must have a degree, do it through the open university, might as well pay a lower fee when you will be at home anyway.

As for trades, not sure any of the trades are going to be in great demand if the economy is stuffed. There are probably already plenty of electricians and plumbers to cover the kind of essential work that people will need for maintenance.

 

[Chris152]

I read an article last week about how the big tech firms are already building on the demand for online activity and work. Maybe that'll be our equivalent to the 'restorative' construction work undertaken in the 30s Bob.

 

[Rorschach]

I think a lot more people will be working from home in the future, not just for social distancing which I hope will only be temporary, but because it will be cheaper. Bad time to be in the commercial property business right now.

Furniture makers will be able to a good trade in convertible bespoke office furniture like desks and storage. I have had to cobble together a desk for the missus which is working well but isn't really practical in the long term. She is itching to get back to the office but the Civil Service are looking at keeping everyone home for several months yet if possible. Now that shops are opening again soon including Ikea next week I am going to be putting serious consideration into how to make a better solution for her.

 

[Andy Kev.]

In my simple world view it depends if/ how quickly the boffs can find a vaccine or at least therapeutic drugs. If quick, it might not be so terrible, but i can see it comparing to the Great Depression. (If they can't, well...)

So, trying to think positively, what would people's advice be to a capable youngster whose career choices are still wide open? For eg, is engineering still a good way to go? Presumably avoid the tourist industry for a while. Serious question, trying to get my head around all this...

Your "simple" view is IMO correct. Every measure is a temporary one until we get either an effective vaccine or treatment medicine.

As for careers advice, I would offer the following: do about six years in the armed forces (ideally the Army or RM) and then make a decision for life. If he's good at military life, he's already got a quality job for life. If he decides after six years that he's had enough, then will be the time to retrade or go to university. He will make a better job of either than if he had started at 18 because forces life will have improved his way of going about things to a higher level than 90%+ of civilians manage.

Disclaimer: I'm ex-Army so am biased. I also got it the wrong way round: uni then Army. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and is always 20:20.

 

[Rorschach]

Military is a good choice as long as he is careful about which branch. When I was doing officer training I spoke to some in the Artillery, they had a bleak outlook on civvy life as one said "there isn't much on civvy street call for a man who can put a shell into a small space from 10 miles away"

 

[doctor Bob]

Hertz filing for chapter 11.
$18 billion of debt.

They will be putting a lot of second hand cars into the USA market, 20000 a month. Everything knocks on.