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What do you predict for EU and euro?

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devonwoody

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My prediction is that they will get greasy and they will suddenly find a pot of money they did not realise was in Germanies account and it will all come right.

(afterall, Germany found 56billion euros last week in one of their banks they had taken over and was mysteriously found)
 

Digit

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Hopefully they will both fall apart, and soon.

Roy.
 

Sawyer

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Perhaps the EU will get exposed to the light of democracy: which would make it whither up and die. Rather like daylight to a vampire.

Notice how terrified they became at the prospect of a Greek referendum (what? let the people decide?). Likewise the the travesty of democracy which was Irish referendum no. 2 (alright for the people to decide, provided they come up with the 'right' answer. Otherwise....).
 

SteveB43

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my top tip is as well as looking for that old & long forgotten hand tool gold, go buy Drachma's, Lira and the old favourite potatoes' (peseta's) as quick as you can....
 

Digit

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Rumour has it that France, Germany, the Benelux group, Austria etc will retain the Euro and kick the others out.
How?
These states are bound by treaty.
R of I, Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal etc cannot survive in the Euro, but they cannot be kicked out.
Simples, Das Fuhrer and and her kennel mate will turn off the taps and they will be forced out.
'Not our fault Brussles' will intone, 'it was their choice!
The Jackboot is on the march again, any claims to democracy died in Greece.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/econ ... NTCMP=SRCH

Roy.
 

RogerS

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You can always guarantee the Guardian will find a way to twist events around to suit it's party line.

It's good that Greece and it also looks like Italy have got someone in charge who has some experience of real-life. Not some idealistic pedagogue of a career politician who's real-life expertise is non-existent.
 

Digit

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In this instant I think the Guardian is dead right Rog.

This group, which is accountable to no one, calls the shots in Europe. The cabal decides whether Greece should be allowed to hold a referendum and if and when Athens should get the next tranche of its bailout cash. What matters to this group is what the financial markets think not what voters might want. To the extent that governments had any power, it has been removed and placed in the hands of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF. It is as if the democratic clock has been turned back to the days when France was ruled by the Bourbons.

Roy.
 

RogerS

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Digit":1l1otokw said:
In this instant I think the Guardian is dead right Rog.

This group, which is accountable to no one, calls the shots in Europe. The cabal decides whether Greece should be allowed to hold a referendum [no evidence of this..the use of the emotive term CABAL is pure tabloid] and if and when Athens should get the next tranche of its bailout cash. What matters to this group is what the financial markets think not what voters might want. [Too damn right. Like it or not, the markets drive events to a major extent. A banal statement by the Guardian. Ask a voter if they want to pay any tax and most of them will say no] To the extent that governments had any power, it has been removed and placed in the hands of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF. It is as if the democratic clock has been turned back to the days when France was ruled by the Bourbons[The Guardian cannot have it both ways. Only the other month they were extolling the European Commission. It's just another opportunity for them to get on their soapbox].

Roy.
 

devonwoody

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Have you thought having your bank deposits guaranteed to be saved upto 80% is worthless if there is 200% inflation. :twisted .


I think inflation will be the only way debts will be paid.
 

Digit

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[The Guardian cannot have it both ways. Only the other month they were extolling the European Commission.].
Absolutely Rog, thus for the Guardian to turn away from Mount Ararat shows that reality has finally hit home.
The rats are abandoning the sinking ship.
Those who supported UK membership of the Euro did so 'cos they supported closer integration with Europe. The financially savvy types predicted this. Politics was the drive.

Roy.
 

woodstainwilly

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I think the answer is clear.
Raid the piggy banks of all the greedy muggers who have been
filling their pockets for years.I mean the captains of industry and
bankers and the like. National debt would be gone and some left
over for us to have a nice holiday.
 

Digit

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Failure of the Euro in its present form could have a number of consequences. If the Guardian's comments are correct we will have a strong group within and a weaker group without.
With Germany in, being the strongest currency in Europe, the Euro would rise in value. Thus their imports would be cheaper and their exports dearer. Countries like Estonia, should they remain in, could then find themselves with balance of payments problems.
Hence the desire for fiscal union, this would logically result in a continous movement of monies to these now no longer independent countries to prop them up, as happens here in Wales. Given a voice would the German and French voters agree?
Futile question as the only means the voters have of withdrawal in these countries is now revolution or the rise of a new political party dedicated to pulling out, and that would probably finish the EU as well.

Roy.
 

RogerS

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woodstainwilly":h883b9cy said:
I think the answer is clear.
Raid the piggy banks of all the greedy muggers who have been
filling their pockets for years.I mean the captains of industry and
bankers and the like. National debt would be gone and some left
over for us to have a nice holiday.
But it wouldn't - much as I agree with your sentiment. For starters, I doubt that they keep their money tied up in cash. It's in equities etc and so if they all dumped that on the market to sell then (a) who is going to buy them and (b) dumping that lot in one go would make the markets fall to nothing...and with that your pension fund.

Perhaps more importantly though is that a little research shows that the total wealth of the world's HNW and UHNW (high net worth) individuals is not as huge as the tabloids would have us believe. And if we could even find a mechanism for redistributing this wealth (without distorting the market and ending up with nothing) how is it going to be redistributed? All those who bang on about this never actually say how they expect to do this. Equal splits to every man woman and child on the planet? Jolly good idea. Now what shall I do with my $0.06?

I suggest that no footballer gets paid more than £50,000 a year. Nor any celebrity.

No-one is allowed to accumulate a pension fund of more than £500,000.

One of the papers publishes league tables that show the ratio between the package of the highest paid individual and that package of the lowest 10% say. Then if the Waitrose ratio is, say, 25 and the Tesco ratio is, say, 50 then we could vote with our feet and shop at Waitrose. Tesco's profits go down...which means that the guys at the top get much much less and so their package becomes self-limiting. Although even this is fraught with difficulty. For instance, what is the 'package' ? Do you mean base salary? Share options? But they have no value until they are exercised at some point in the future. Thing is Joe Public Lardass will still go to Tesco.
 

Digit

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Equal splits to every man woman and child on the planet? Jolly good idea. Now what shall I do with my $0.06?
And unless you introduce Marx's philosophy, within a generation the entrepreneurs, the risk takers etc will once again be wealthy.
Marxism has never worked yet.

Roy.
 

beech1948

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We fought two world wars to confront and subdue Germany.

What we have now is WW3 but being fought on the financial battlefields of Europe. Germany is again headed towards European domination accompanied by its poodle the ( Vichy) French.

I know its all a bit fanciful BUT what I see is that the Germans are about to drag the Euro into crisis so that they can impose their views upon the rest of Euroland.

I most desparately want to see some good old fashioned leadership from the current government. Don't hold your breath waiting for this though.

Britain should be out of the EU, have a relationship like Switzerlands and then cancel all of the pettyfogging rules the EU has foisted on us. A population with the general common sense of the Brits surely does not need the German and French to dictate to us on how to live.
Al
 

Digit

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+1 Al.
To paraphrase Monty Pyton, 'what has the EU ever done for us?'

Roy.
 

geertswaans

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Right, I'll throw myself in the pit.
i've been following this thread and things about the euro and I'm not sure what they will do. I don't think they will kick greece out, nor that it will be the end of the euro and the EU. They will never kick Italy out as it was one of the founders of the EEC. I'm sure that the architects of teh euro have thought about these issues when they discussed the common currency. I'm originally dutch, altho I haven't lived there for some years now, yet I have seen the impact of the euro. It gave the people a lot of wealth and this feeling of european unionship. At the beginning of the Euro I did a lot of import/export and it was such bliss with the euro. No conversion rates, no feeling of being robbed, no bank fees for foreign currencies.
especially today, when we remember those who gave their lives in wars to protect us, I can't help thinking what the EU has done. In a continent that had seen two world wars in three decades, they managed to put aside the fear, hatred and pain and a few years after WW2 a pact was made to work together. In the past 55 years the EEC/EU has brought together more nationalities, ethnic groups, religions, languages, differences under one banner, created peace in a continent where people spitted on those living across the border.
I know I might be a bit bias as Holland has always been very pro EU and I def don't always agree with what they are doing/thinking/aiming for, but I can see what they have done.

Geert
 
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