UK as an "Emerging Economy"?

[lurker]

This all started when some silly person decided economics was a science rather than something akin to astrology.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Rod Liddle in yesterday's S.Times -
Economics has never been one of my favourite disciplines, ranking somewhere between astrology and trepanning on my list of stuff that thinks it’s scientific but isn’t.

:lol:

 

[billw]

I doubt we'd regress far enough to be classed as emerging, but there certainly are a lot of troublesome issues that we (and other developed nations) will endure over the coming decades. The US will almost definitely lose its hegemonic status some time this century, it's been on the slide for a while now and the huge danger is that the transition of power to China does not come peacefully (which historically is the case in something like 10 out of 12 of the last transitions) unlike when the US took over from the UK.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

The "USA first" Trump dogma makes the probability of China taking the lead much higher and in fairly swift order.

Global leadership tends to follow those countries which actively embrace relationships with others. For the UK this was based on maritime, technical and scientific skills to create an empire. The US later dominated through manufacturing wealth creation, culture, and military superiority.

Trump has withdrawn from the global arena (WHO membership, climate change denial, Middle East conflict resolution etc) and is intent on creating barriers .

A second Trump term will see the US playing second fiddle to a China which has spent the last three decades building global scale relationships through trade.

 

[rafezetter]

The "USA first" Trump dogma makes the probability of China taking the lead much higher and in fairly swift order.

Global leadership tends to follow those countries which actively embrace relationships with others. For the UK this was based on maritime, technical and scientific skills to create an empire. The US later dominated through manufacturing wealth creation, culture, and military superiority.

Trump has withdrawn from the global arena (WHO membership, climate change denial, Middle East conflict resolution etc) and is intent on creating barriers .

A second Trump term will see the US playing second fiddle to a China which has spent the last three decades building global scale relationships through trade.

I would agree with all of that except the last - China hasn't been "building relationships" so much as undermining the competition** or outright stealing IP's, while being more than willing to buy up foreign debt so one day they call call in that I.O.U and claim ownership.

** or simply offering the opportunity for western countries to sell out thier own manufacturing base and handing over thier main source of supply, in the name of fatter profits regardless of quality.

Oh and not forgetting this also gives China the opportunity to simply cut supply just as one of the Oil countries did in the 70's and bring western economy to it's knees. - we already saw that China.

China doesn't do "relationships" in the way the western world thinks of them, they do "relationships" spelled TRAP.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

So the Chinese gave us all that stuff (brightly coloured plastic objects, PPE etc etc) and what did we give them in return? Lots of little (electronic) portraits of the Queen/dead presidents. Which of us got the better deal?

 

[Cheshirechappie]

So the Chinese gave us all that stuff (brightly coloured plastic objects, PPE etc etc) and what did we give them in return? Lots of little (electronic) portraits of the Queen/dead presidents. Which of us got the better deal?

What did we give them in return? An awful lot of money. Cold, hard cash. Which they use to buy up critical bits of other people's countries. Ask yourself why.

It's been made very easy to buy stuff from China, but if you own a Western business that wants to sell stuff in China, it's not made easy. They also steal other peoples' intellectual property on an industrial scale. Again, ask yourself why.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

I imagine the thinking that triggered the use of the "emerging economy" phrase was partly based on the fact that Sterling may no longer be considered so "cold" and "hard"! The USD will continue to have value while the Chinese retain such huge stockpiles of it, I suspect!

 

[Phil Pascoe]

I do find it odd that some people (not here, necessarily) write as if it's only this Country that has huge problems to overcome. It's not - every other Country has them, and our ultimate success will be determined by our overcoming them before others do.

 

[Rorschach]

I do find it odd that some people (not here, necessarily) write as if it's only this Country that has huge problems to overcome. It's not - every other Country has them, and our ultimate success will be determined by our overcoming them before others do.

What is unusual about the problems right now is that every country in the world is affected by the (EDIT: economic) fallout from C19, and one could argue they are all affected in pretty much the same way.

I know some will say that certain countries have done better than others, NZ or Australia for example, but they still don't know what to do next and everything they do carries risk.

What is better, suffer hard and fast and then hopefully recover quickly or drag your suffering out over the long term with great uncertainty about what could happen and lots of smaller set backs? I don't know the answer to that one.

 

[lurker]

I do find it odd that some people (not here, necessarily) write as if it's only this Country that has huge problems to overcome. It's not - every other Country has them, and our ultimate success will be determined by our overcoming them before others do.

Hence my post at the start of this thread.
As a nation, we are still brilliant at inventing stuff, but poor at making money out of that brilliance.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Rorschach - I was thinking more of finances and the future, rather than the direct affects of covid.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

I imagine the thinking that triggered the use of the "emerging economy" phrase was partly based on the fact that Sterling may no longer be considered so "cold" and "hard"! The USD will continue to have value while the Chinese retain such huge stockpiles of it, I suspect!

Sterling was certainly "cold" and "hard" enough for Chinese businesses to take it in wheel-barrow loads. Sterling, dollars, euros, sea-shells - they don't care. If it's currency, they'll take it.

Trump kicked off about China as soon as he came to office. A lot of the clever beggars in the media and elsewhere sneered at him. I wonder who looks stupid now?

 

[Rorschach]

Rorschach - I was thinking more of finances and the future, rather than the direct affects of covid.

I was referring to economic effects of C19 and how the whole world will feel that.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

A few simplistic facts.

The UK comes in sixth place in the world GDP league. To use a football analogy we may be in Europe next season but unlikely to win the league.

The UK comes in 26th place based on per capita GDP (adjusted for cost of living). Many of those higher up the league table are somewhat special cases - eg: Qatar, Luxembourg, Brunei, San Marino, Hong Kong etc. Eliminating these puts us in around 12th place adjacent to Canada, France, Japan. No honours this year but well outside the relegation zone.

Emerging economy is a descriptor usually reserved for those moving up the league from a position of relative poverty. UK is not an emerging economy, neither is it one which shows clear signs of being a title contendor.

It seems comfortable just drifting along - possibly moving up or down slightly depending upon ones perceptions. Brexit aside (positive or negative views) it seems unlikely that the UK will ever recover its empire, industrial leadership, dominant global influence. Nor with a reasonably positive approach to the changing circumstances should it slip into obscurity.

 

[doctor Bob]

Even simpler fact ........ being born in the UK in my opinion is like a lottery win. Opportunities are amazing.
Prior to C19, every one doing some travelling wanted to come here.
Tourists want to come here.
Asylum seekers want to come here.
Heads of state and world leaders want to come here.
I think it's a great country, however it seems to be fully of doom mongering moaning pessimists at present. Anyway onwards and upwards, best foot forward and all that.

 

[billw]

The point about squandering our IP and innovativeness is a huge issue. Cheap plastic tat will never be made here again, nor is there any point whatsoever in churning out anything that's inherently mass produced because machines and people can do it in other countries for a lot less.

What Britain needs to do is concentrate on the high value stuff a lot better. Unique craftsmanship is something that can't be replicated easily, sure it can be knocked off on the cheap but that's not the point. We need to concentrate on quality and complexity.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

The point about squandering our IP and innovativeness is a huge issue. Cheap plastic tat will never be made here again, nor is there any point whatsoever in churning out anything that's inherently mass produced because machines and people can do it in other countries for a lot less.

What Britain needs to do is concentrate on the high value stuff a lot better. Unique craftsmanship is something that can't be replicated easily, sure it can be knocked off on the cheap but that's not the point. We need to concentrate on quality and complexity.

Globalisation was all about wage arbitrage - all things being equal, reduce the wage bill and hike the profits, therefore increase the bonuses for the top floor management. UK workers will not compete on the world market for minimum wages, because of the welfare state: to manufacture plastic tat requires Bangladesh/Vietnam level wages (China is too expensive, now), and unemployment benefit is too high to allow workers to be forced to take slave labour jobs.

However, 3d printing and robotics might change that, to the detriment of the Bangladeshis. When robots are cheaper than people, who needs people?

Who will be employed to have a salary to buy the plastic tat is another question altogether, although one vision is every household owning a robotic manufacturing plant, and everyone taking part in the economy that way. Unlikely, as our super-rich owners don't like competition from the hoi polloi.

Still, we are at war with China now, so that removes all the cheap eastern labour from the market (or it will in a few months) - maybe British workers will once again be able to work 16 hours a day in a sweat shop, just like in the good old days of empire.

 

[Rorschach]

maybe British workers will once again be able to work 16 hours a day in a sweat shop, just like in the good old days of empire.

They are in Leicester, brings a salty grog filled tear to your eye.

 

[lurker]

Believe me there have been sweat shops and horrible exploitation in Leicester for well over 20 years.
I guess every city has it if you look in the right places.