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Jacob

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And they expect to be invaded from the west - Napoleon, Hitler, and an on-going general threat from USA.
Also they have given up large parts of their "Empire" - much of which was gained incidentally in self defence during WW2.
Screenshot 2022-02-15 at 11.53.23.png
 

TominDales

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I don't see it as that at all. The expansion of Nato was driven by small states fear of bigger aggressive states and 45 years of being under Sovient control. Putin does not see it that way either.
Putin is not a mad megalomaniac, he is not after a new Soviet empire by force, his is a cunning opportunist not an ideologue, is anti nato retoric is propaganda to support the current opportunity, its not based on any facts on the ground, its cynical and aimed at creating short term opportuities to maintain hsi prestige and power.
In my view, he will avoid the risks of war with the new nato members. His anti-west threat rhetoric is purely propaganda to suit his short term aims and to bolster his position internally , its cynical and skilful propaganda and not based on a) megalomania or b) any credible threat form Nato militarily, he is far more concerned at the way those countries have prospered as democracies since the wall came down.

His main concern is Ukraine has prospered since it became a democracy, western Ukraine is doing well, Belarus is fed up with its dictator as are many Russians, that is the true threat to his regime. He is an opportunist, sees the 'west'/Nato in disarray and focused on pandemic and re-building economies and domestic agendas - Nato's defence spending has shrunk to an all time low, it is no military threat to Russia. The US is quite inward focused at the moment. So he is flexing some muscles to see what he can get. He normally goes for low hanging fruit such as the Georgian campaign and Crimea. The language used is pure propaganda to suit the current situation. He needs to show the external threat to bolster his domestic position and justify the sabre rattling. His people will tolerate him taking a bite out of Ukraine but not a full blown war. If that happened I think it would be unintended, but accidents happen in high stakes situations. His idea outcome is to get something tangible from the situation without risking too many Russian lives or treasure. Its hard to predict what he is after, as an opportunist I suspect he will grab what is available; It could be more prestige at home or with the ex -Soviets states eg Kazakhstan, Belarus. Or get a stronger land position in Crimea/east Ukraine. Or wring concessions form Nato.
But to say he is threatened as with Napoleon, or Hitler or the disastrous Russian/Japanese conflict of 1905 is falling into his narrative. Who is the western dictator that want military conquest in the east?
 

Jacob

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.......
But to say he is threatened as with Napoleon, or Hitler or the disastrous Russian/Japanese conflict of 1905 is falling into his narrative. Who is the western dictator that want military conquest in the east?
USA desperately seeking world hegemony.
 

RobinBHM

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His main concern is Ukraine has prospered since it became a democracy

Ukraine has a trade DCFTA trade deal with EU and is looking to become a full member.

A number of ex communist Eastern bloc countries are now full members of the EU and have benefitted massively from EU membership.

Russia is a pretty weak country really with a gdp no bigger than Spain and it’s extremely corrupt. Putin is acting tough because he is actually weak.
 

Spectric

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The big risk in all of this is Ukraine joining NATO, the west knows the potential consequences this could unlease but is not saying no. Ukraine is not fully independant of Russia like so many others who joined NATO, it has historical roots and connections with Russia which means ongoing unrest and conflict, not a massive problem at the moment but if they were in NATO then you would have a major potential war on your hands because the NATO countries would have to step in and help, now what would Putin do, the potential outcome is just not worth any conflict, we really do not want a 40 megaton nuclear missile coming our way because it would be game over for all. What they need to do is stop the sabre rattling and accept that Russian society is different and talk, rather than impose sanctions start talking trade and acceptance to bring Russia on side. All of these problems are as much a result of the west continually looking upon Russia as a threat and trying to keep the cold war going as it is Putin.
 

TRITON

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His main concern is Ukraine has prospered since it became a democracy, western Ukraine is doing well
No it isnt. And corruption in the Ukraine has been often described as 'legendary'
I don't see it as that at all. The expansion of Nato was driven by small states fear of bigger aggressive states and 45 years of being under Soviet control.
Er....

You dont think they had other 'Conversations' about the other former Soviet era countries along the same vein. "Now, who do we want installed in government"

Try not to be so naive.
 

Pallet Fancier

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Your perception of who 'The good, the bad and the grey' is is dependent on which viewpoint you have.



The SvalSat facility is within a designated demilitarised zone in terms of NATO definitions. If it is been used militarily then see previous answer above. What would our 'good guys' do if Russia's demilitarised zones were used counter to agreed purpose.

PS: it hadn't gone done, it just lost one of two conduits thereby reducing redundancy capacity.

Will that fit on a postcard?

You're reading FAR more into my words than I actually said. I never mentioned who were the good guys, bad guys or grey guys. Never once. Every side in this who has owned and operated submarines has done things to other people's underwater infrastructure.

If you think you've detected bias in what I wrote, you've only heard an echo of your own.
 

clogs

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I'm sure that most of the Russian population would get rid of that nutter Putin if given the chance of doing so without reprisals....
Actually the same for most dictaor run countries N.Korea, China etc etc...
 

TominDales

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USA desperately seeking world hegemony.
Not militarily, Biden has made that crystal clear, its why he is withdrawing US citizens from Ukraine so that there can be no hint of war between Russia and USA. The US is even more reluctant to sustain loss of service personnel than Putin. Especially after Iraq and the Afghan experience
US military deployment is lowest since WW2. And in Europe and Asia its been at record low levels since 2004. 911 produced a spike. in the middle east from 2001 to 2014. Even US soft power and economy power has been focused internally for the past 14 years and I don't hear or see any moves to change that.

There is a high degree of ioslationism in US politics, it usually needs a bold or naked act of agression to rouse them.
If Russia did invade Ukraine that could change things. Just look what happened in 1917, 1941, 1950 North Korean invasion thorough to end of the cold war - lots of proxy wars with Russia/china, then Kuwait and 911 - Afganistan/Iraq.


1644935105465.png


The irony is in 1945, Roosevelt was more concerned to give Stalin some breathing space and was suspicious of the old empires including the British and French, it was only in the late 1947 to 48s that US policy changed with the installation of puppet regimes in eastern Europe and the Berlin crisis.

The dimension that is often missed is the work of 3rd countries to pull the US into their affairs. Britain and France worked very hard to maintain US interest in Europe post '45 to face up to Russia. The same is true of the new members of Nato, they want a US stick in their pocket when negotiating with Russia, the same motivation for Ukraine. In my view this is the proxy war today, the countries on the border of Russia want allies to strengthen their hand. That requires some calm diplomacy by EU and US and to the same extent by Russia to keep a lid on things. There is probably a stable position where Ukraine enjoys autonomy from Russia but is not a threat. This does require measured diplomacy on all sides.
However I just don't see the US having any appetite for world hegemony, too many casualties involved.
 

Jacob

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....... In my view this is the proxy war today, the countries on the border of Russia want allies to strengthen their hand. That requires some calm diplomacy by EU and US and to the same extent by Russia to keep a lid on things. There is probably a stable position where Ukraine enjoys autonomy from Russia but is not a threat. This does require measured diplomacy on all sides.
One would imagine that as Russia retreats, as they have been doing since Glasnost, then the need for NATO would diminish. The USA got the message after Cuba Cuban Missile Crisis
However I just don't see the US having any appetite for world hegemony, too many casualties involved.
USA seems world leading belligerent currently, with massive expenditure on arms and numbers of lives lost 'War rarely goes as planned': New report tallies trillions US spent in Afghanistan, Iraq. Also massive under cover intrusion into foreign affairs, particularly in South America. They are currently presiding over the collapse of Afghanistan, where they should be dropping aid as enthusiastically as they dropped bombs.
 

Droogs

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As long as Putin doesn't try to set up a Ukrainian NHS once he has taken over, he should get away with it, After all if you can't charge the victim $1k to get them from where they were wounded to the hospital whats the point of fighting there :rolleyes:
 

shed9

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You're reading FAR more into my words than I actually said. I never mentioned who were the good guys, bad guys or grey guys. Never once. Every side in this who has owned and operated submarines has done things to other people's underwater infrastructure.

If you think you've detected bias in what I wrote, you've only heard an echo of your own.

Granted you 'Never once' mentioned who were the good or bad guys (despite suggesting nefarious activity by the boogey man of the cold war against the West) but then for clarity, I also didn't state that you had declared who was good or bad either? My retort was purely to point out that those terms of good and bad are meaningless being fully dependent upon your viewpoint, hence my comment on ‘good guys’ in the context of your slightly incorrect ‘whodunnit’ text. It would appear you now agree with me despite not understanding the original reply..... Go figure.....

No echo or bias here. As you were.
 

Trainee neophyte

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His main concern is Ukraine has prospered since it became a democracy, western Ukraine is doing well,
From wikipedia:
"Ukraine's economy shrank by 6.8% in 2014,[42] and this continued with a 12% decline in GDP in 2015.[43] In April 2017, the World Bank stated that Ukraine's economic growth rate was 2.3% in 2016, thus ending the recession.[44] Despite these improvements, the IMF reported in 2018, that of all the countries in Europe, Ukraine had the lowest GDP per capita.[45][46][47]"


He is an opportunist, sees the 'west'/Nato in disarray and focused on pandemic and re-building economies and domestic agendas - Nato's defence spending has shrunk to an all time low, it is no military threat to Russia.
Ever since the West disembowelled Russia, Russia has been trying to get itself back to some semblance of normality, hampered at every turn by the West. As soon as Putin stopped the oligarchy theft - that would be the the ones who now live in London and own football clubs - the knives were out for him precisely because he stopped the theft. Hence the endless "Putin is evil" memes spread daily. You seem to have bought into all of them. What Russia wants (not just Putin, but Russians generally) is to not have nuclear missiles on their border, pointing at Moscow. That's what ALL of this is about. Russia is finally strong enough to object to NATO installing the Aegis Ashore dual use "anti - missile, only for defence against Iranian missiles, honest, guv" system. Why else do you think the USA pulled out of the INF treaty? If NATO didn't exist, would there be a threat of Russian invasion of Ukrain? NATO exists in order to deal with the fallout from NATO's existence.

Anywho, as they say in Canada, USA seems willing to fight Russia to the last Ukranian, and possibly to the last European. They have accused Russia of wanting to invade a broken, bankrupt country which Russia has no interest in invading. It's straight out of Wag the Dog. If Russia invades, straightjacket sanctions stop Europe buying gas and oil from Russia (in euros, which is a huge petrodollar problem), so USA wins and Europe loses in a big way. If Russia doesn't invade, Biden wins by having stopped the invasion that was never going to happen anyway. He is a hero - peace in our time, and perhaps people will forget he is an incompetent failure. The fact that the whole threat of war is insane, made-up nonsense is irrelevant.

(If Russia invades at 1:00am this evening as scheduled by The Sun, I am going to be slightly embarrassed).
 

Spectric

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Who saw them sailors on the Northumberland reckon the russians were " Shieting it " when two RAF planes flew over the Russian ship, that is another problem because we think we are a match for the Russians and could just push it to far. If the Russians had perceived them planes as a threat they would have fired at them and at that range would not have missed.
 

woodieallen

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From wikipedia:
"Ukraine's economy shrank by 6.8% in 2014,[42] and this continued with a 12% decline in GDP in 2015.[43] In April 2017, the World Bank stated that Ukraine's economic growth rate was 2.3% in 2016, thus ending the recession.[44] Despite these improvements, the IMF reported in 2018, that of all the countries in Europe, Ukraine had the lowest GDP per capita.[45][46][47]"



Ever since the West disembowelled Russia, Russia has been trying to get itself back to some semblance of normality, hampered at every turn by the West. As soon as Putin stopped the oligarchy theft - that would be the the ones who now live in London and own football clubs - the knives were out for him precisely because he stopped the theft. Hence the endless "Putin is evil" memes spread daily. You seem to have bought into all of them. What Russia wants (not just Putin, but Russians generally) is to not have nuclear missiles on their border, pointing at Moscow. That's what ALL of this is about. Russia is finally strong enough to object to NATO installing the Aegis Ashore dual use "anti - missile, only for defence against Iranian missiles, honest, guv" system. Why else do you think the USA pulled out of the INF treaty? If NATO didn't exist, would there be a threat of Russian invasion of Ukrain? NATO exists in order to deal with the fallout from NATO's existence.

Anywho, as they say in Canada, USA seems willing to fight Russia to the last Ukranian, and possibly to the last European. They have accused Russia of wanting to invade a broken, bankrupt country which Russia has no interest in invading. It's straight out of Wag the Dog. If Russia invades, straightjacket sanctions stop Europe buying gas and oil from Russia (in euros, which is a huge petrodollar problem), so USA wins and Europe loses in a big way. If Russia doesn't invade, Biden wins by having stopped the invasion that was never going to happen anyway. He is a hero - peace in our time, and perhaps people will forget he is an incompetent failure. The fact that the whole threat of war is insane, made-up nonsense is irrelevant.

(If Russia invades at 1:00am this evening as scheduled by The Sun, I am going to be slightly embarrassed).

I have finally cottoned on, TN. You are Comrade Putin. It explains much of what you post. Either that or you're worried he'll send the Spetsnatz round to chop down your remaining olive trees.
 

woodieallen

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Who saw them sailors on the Northumberland reckon the russians were " Shieting it " when two RAF planes flew over the Russian ship, that is another problem because we think we are a match for the Russians and could just push it to far. If the Russians had perceived them planes as a threat they would have fired at them and at that range would not have missed.
You really haven't got a clue, have you ? You just love knocking everything and everyone. Bet you're the life and soul of the pub, mate. I think I'll pop you on Ignore.
 

TominDales

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From wikipedia:
"Ukraine's economy shrank by 6.8% in 2014,[42] and this continued with a 12% decline in GDP in 2015.[43] In April 2017, the World Bank stated that Ukraine's economic growth rate was 2.3% in 2016, thus ending the recession.[44] Despite these improvements, the IMF reported in 2018, that of all the countries in Europe, Ukraine had the lowest GDP per capita.[45][46][47]"

Ever since the West disembowelled Russia, Russia has been trying to get itself back to some semblance of normality, hampered at every turn by the West. .
This quote from Wikipedia is quite misleading. The recession in 2014 to 2016 was due to the Russian invasion of Crimea and the Donbass, it cut off the harvest from Crimea and its important agricultural resources, while the eight year war in Donbass took a huge economic toll and still does in the East. However Western Ukraine which has always been more Europe facing has prospered very well in both democracy. freedom and economically since the calming of hostilities in the East. Its created a strong determination in Ukraine to resist Moscow and I'm sure that does not sit well with Putin. I'm pretty sure its the re-formation of a serous Ukrainian army that gives Putin pause before war, than a few Nato troops deployed to Poland.

I don't subscribe to the 'West disembowelled Russia' view, its was a classic fall of an ancient regime. The communist autocracy had run out of steam by the 1960s and inertia allowed it to run-on into a desperate economic state by 1990. I do agree however that the West and the USA in particular was arrogant and foolish to not aid the Russian economy in the 1990s, the US behaved like a smug victor and did not recognise the human cost to the Russian collapse or the complete change in politics in Russia during the 1990s. Some decent loans, and funds to restructure, would have made a huge difference and also allowed for leverage over the oligarchs - to my mind that is still ongoing, its just its Putin's friends who are the oligarchs today. Disembowel is too active a verb, it was more like arrogant disregard. A grievance was created which Putin uses.

To my mind, the fundamental issue is that Russia is a dictatorship and the majority of Ukrainians (in the more populous western Ukraine) don't want Russia to impose an autocratic satrap on them. In that sense I think the USA and Nato are secondary players drawn in by the antagonists. All the frontline states boarding Russia, including the Baltic, Poland, Ukraine, Finland are existentially threatened. The rest of us in Europe and the US are at least once if not twice removed. The simalry is the of the hen and the pigs relationship to ham and eggs.

I too will feel a embarrassed is they invade at 1am tomorrow.
 

Trainee neophyte

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The recession in 2014 to 2016 was due to the Russian invasion of Crimea and the Donbass,
Invasion? Are you sure? It wasn't a case of the ethnically Russian eastern areas not wanting to be ethnically cleansed by the neonazis in Kiev? It was just a random invasion by Putin his own self, riding on his bear - must be true, it was on the BBC. Do you know why they broke away from Kiev? 2014 Odessa clashes - Wikipedia The good guys (that will be the ones we in the west support) set fire to the building and shot anyone who wanted to get out. Very democratic. Someone sent fighter jets to strafe a town and kill civilians. I can't think why they held a vote to democratically separate themselves from Kyev. Did you know they held a vote? Or are only our elections democratic, because all their elections are rigged, obviously. Putin must be all dictator, because why else would people keep voting for him?

The rewriting of history in real time is astonishing. Did you know that last week Ms Truss went to Moscow and told the Russians that Britain does not, and never will recognise Russian sovereignty over the Rostov and Voronezh regions? (I had no idea where they were, either). That's akin to Russia claiming the UK has no sovereignty over Kent and Essex - complete twaddle, or contemptuous empirical idiocy. Or perhaps it was intentional - Russia must retreat from Russia. It isn't clear where they should retreat to, but they obviously don't have the right to live in their own country. I wonder why Russia feels slightly defensive? Could it be the 125,000 Ukrainian troops dug in, in trenches, waiting to go over the top? If 100,000 Russian troops means imminent invasion, what does 125,000 Ukrainian troops mean? They are just defensive, helpful peacekeeping soldiers, there to assist little old ladies to cross the road?

Ukraine is one of the wealthiest areas in the world - natural resources, farm land, high tec industry - it ought to have one of the biggest economies in the world. Why doesn't it? Could it be that 10% has to go to the "Big Guy"? At this point the propaganda has been running for decades - NATO needs an enemy otherwise it has no purpose, and NATO's purpose is to "defend" against Russia. Therefore, NATO is defending as agressive as it can, in order to provide jobs and pensions for people like Stoltenberg. If a few million people get killed or displaced in the process, well... you can't make an omelet etc. I would prefer not to be made into an omelette just so some very rich people can get even richer.
 

Spectric

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You really haven't got a clue, have you ? You just love knocking everything and everyone. Bet you're the life and soul of the pub, mate. I think I'll pop you on Ignore.
Facts are facts and sticking your head in the sand with your rear in the air will not make anything that makes you feel uncomfortable go away, so wake up and realise we are all living in a world where there are some very bad potential outcomes hanging over our heads and it will only take one person to step over a line to trigger them.
 

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