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Recording of deaths UK

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Doug B

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There are too many being deaths being attributed to Covid, I did read from the office of national statistics that last year there were 70,000 more deaths than average. At the time we were nearing 100,000 deaths attributed to Covid so clearly based on statistical average approximately 30,000 weren’t covid.
That said you can prove anything with statistics
 

marcros

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there needs to be some form of measure though, and it needs to be non-political and easy to administer.

on news reports that I have read (primarily BBC, so take from that what you will), they are stating that the measure is "deaths of people who have had covid within the last 28 days" or similar/. They go to pains to not say that they are deaths from covid.

This measure, and that of other countries are why it is impossible to meaningfully compare the impact in the UK and elsewhere.
 

DBT85

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"In a moving piece in last Saturday’s Daily Mail"

Never mind.

Regarding the numbers. If I get covid today and in 27 days die by piano, I died with covid. I have no idea if I would get counted into the statistic or not. I'd rather not find out. I probably didn't die OF covid. There are however lots and lots and lots of cases where the death has been brought forward prematurely due to covid, even if covid itself isn't the killer in the end. To my mind that's a perfectly acceptable number to be counted.

As I've said before, nigh every govt in the world has employed its own teams of scientists to decide on a course of action, and nearly all of them agreed on what to do. I am happy to sit here and criticise WHEN things were done based on the advice given by people that are specialists in the field, but I'm not going to argue about that advice. Those scientists don't tell me how to broadcast live sport to half the planet, I don't tell them how to leverage their knowledge for the betterment of a multitude of societies.
 

Cabinetman

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As you say Macros " or similar " what they actually say is, who have tested positive for Covid in the last 28 days "tested" and there lies the nub of the problem, so many false positives with the testing measures they are using for most people.
The statistical analysis of the past year will be ploughed over for decades and you will get as many answers as there are Ploughmen
 

Woody2Shoes

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Whatever system for recording deaths that is invented is bound to be "wrong". The only certainty is death, after all. Whatever system we could have invented, the current one is as good as any - a key advantage being simplicity, allowing consistency. What alternative would you (in your no doubt vast wisdom and technical knowledge :cool:) like to suggest?
Don't forget that absolute numbers are really irrelevant - of course every death is very sad for those involved - but, it's the patterns/trends in them that matter from the point of view of managing the response to covid.
 

Jameshow

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Never heard of cpod?!

covid dosen't generally kill people but causes Pneumonia, multi organ failure etc.

So the best way to compare is excess deaths over past 5 years which is likely to be around 100k for march to march.

Having said that there will obviously be a few years of lower than average deaths over the next decade or so to account for those covid losses.

Cheers James
 

Stanleymonkey

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Do you think we could have an adult discussion about this without the usual personal attacks and puerile comments

Doctors - "Too Many Deaths Are Being Blamed On Coronavirus." | RichieAllen.co.uk
I don't normally write on these posts. But...

If you go to the Richie Allen website and their forum. They are happy to have posts about: Chemtrails (conspiracy theory that plane trails are population controlling chemicals / drugs); Climate change being a hoax; 5G being mind control network and so on.

This doesn't really give the source material a great deal of credibility if it written by people with similar mindsets.
 

eribaMotters

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I suppose you have to start somewhere and whatever method you use somebody could prove was inaccurate.
I note on the daily statistics that the deaths say had covid within the last 28 days, so the death is not technically a covid death, but could be linked to it.
No matter what method you use, the fact that you use the same method throughout the pandemic is surely the most important as you then see trends, be they good or bad and as such can respond accordingly.

Colin
 

Richard_C

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There are dozens of ways to think about it. There will be the direct deaths, covid resulting in organ failure of various sorts, there will be direct deaths but the person might have died soon anyway from other causes, there will be indirect consequential deaths from things like heart disease and cancer which went untreated because people avoided doctors or appointments were cancelled, long term there may be reduced life expectancy through poverty if people have lost jobs .....

So you can't easily see the whole picture, but does it matter? It is a serious disease that has prematurely killed tens of thousands, whether that's 50, 100, 150,000 is irrelevant to how we deal with it.
 

selectortone

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I don't normally write on these posts. But...

If you go to the Richie Allen website and their forum. They are happy to have posts about: Chemtrails (conspiracy theory that plane trails are population controlling chemicals / drugs); Climate change being a hoax; 5G being mind control network and so on.

This doesn't really give the source material a great deal of credibility if it written by people with similar mindsets.
After my wife died 15 years ago I changed my lifestyle and went back to what I had been doing before I met her, working as a technician at a guitar store, fixing amps and guitars. The other guitar technician there was a young guy who was brilliant at his job - possibly the best guy I have ever seen at setting up guitars - but, as is often the case with gifted people he was a litttle strange. I think he was on the autistic spectrum. Anyway, when he wasn't obsessing about guitars he was obsessing about all this conspiracy theory stuff. (All that stuff listed above. His big thing was the 'Illuminati'. He actually believes in 9-foot shape shifting lizards).

He lived on his own and from what I could gather, spent all his free time, evenings and weekends, on websites like the one mentioned. He took it all in, hook line and sinker. It's on the internet so it must be true right?

I'm retired now. He called me a while ago. His latest thing is the vaccine programme. He's convinced it is being run by Bill Gates. He apparently owns more than half of the farmland in the USA now, and when he's not manipulating crop genetics, or malaria vaccine, is doing gene therapy designed to alter our DNA and make us more controllable.

He's a lovely guy, whose life has been totally blighted by fake internet news. He's barking mad now. I don't know what the purpose of it all is. It would be ironic if all these conspiracy theory websites were a conspiracy by the Russians or the Chinese or North Koreans, to destabilise us filthy capitalists. That would be the supreme irony. Anyway, sometimes a thing is just a thing (Occam's razor) and there isn't a huge world-wide conspiracy behind it. But he won't believe that.
 
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Rorschach

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So you can't easily see the whole picture, but does it matter? It is a serious disease that has prematurely killed tens of thousands, whether that's 50, 100, 150,000 is irrelevant to how we deal with it.
Absolutely it matters because it determines whether our response was proportionate to the threat.

I heard yesterday that a conservative estimate on the damage done by the C19 response (so lockdown basically) is that every single person alive today in the UK has had at least 4 months knocked off their lifespan. That's 22 million life years lost and that's a conservative estimate based on the situation now, not accounting for ongoing problems and not even accounting for the fact we have another 25% ish of lockdown still to go.
 

Woody2Shoes

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Absolutely it matters because it determines whether our response was proportionate to the threat.

I heard yesterday that a conservative estimate on the damage done by the C19 response (so lockdown basically) is that every single person alive today in the UK has had at least 4 months knocked off their lifespan. That's 22 million life years lost and that's a conservative estimate based on the situation now, not accounting for ongoing problems and not even accounting for the fact we have another 25% ish of lockdown still to go.
Numbers schmumbers. A singificant number of people have had quite a few years knocked off their life expectancy permanently. It is an incontrovertible fact that our healthcare system, and almost certainly other systems which keep us alive, would have become overwhelmed and ceased to function without lockdown(s).
 

Amateur

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Do you think we could have an adult discussion about this without the usual personal attacks and puerile comments

Doctors - "Too Many Deaths Are Being Blamed On Coronavirus." | RichieAllen.co.uk
What would you like us to say?
You seem to be wanting a discussion about a third party source that make money from sensationalism.
With that being the case how can anyone base any views on accuracy of the story and be taken seriously?

Unless perhaps you are Richie Allen?
 

Rorschach

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Numbers schmumbers. A singificant number of people have had quite a few years knocked off their life expectancy permanently. It is an incontrovertible fact that our healthcare system, and almost certainly other systems which keep us alive, would have become overwhelmed and ceased to function without lockdown(s).
22 million divided by 100k is 220, do you think the average 84 year old (average age of covid death) was going to live another 220 years?

I am not saying we didn't need to do something to protect the NHS, I have just said we didn't need to do what we did. You absolutely cannot prove that an alternative action would have been worse.
 

Chris152

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It's clearly a conspiracy. Typical of governments throughout the world, especially the leading capitalist economies, to seek ways to trash their economies. They're always trying to, ummm, find ways to decrease their wealth. Undermine the democratic freedoms that make advanced capitalism possible. It's just so obvious. Trash the economy and, ummm... Yea, that's it. Something about implanting chips, too.
 

doctor Bob

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He's a lovely guy, whose life has been totally blighted by fake internet news. He's barking mad now. I don't know what the purpose of it all is. It would be ironic if all these conspiracy theory websites were a conspiracy by the Russians or the Chinese or North Koreans, to destabilise us filthy capitalists. That would be the supreme irony. Anyway, sometimes a thing is just a thing (Occam's razor) and there isn't a huge world-wide conspiracy behind it. But he won't believe that.
Is his belief any different to believing in God, religion etc, not really.
I personally believe all religion is bonkers but I'm not anti it as it gives people faith often gives them direction and forms a good moral compass.
 
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