One-jab efficacy questions

[RobinBHM]

Yes, totally worth the risk at the moment. I am not saying my opinion won't change with future data but as it stands at the moment I am very comfortable in my decision. Remember, I am one of the people who was never scared in the beginning, catching covid hasn't worried me over the past year so certainly no need to start worrying now. Given the vast majority shows no symptoms or so mild they don't recognise it there is an increasing chance I have already had it, had some weird bugs/malaises in the last 18 months.

Theo Usherwood, political correspondent on LBC, had Covid last March.

He recently said it took him 6 months before he felt better and even now he's reduced stamina.

He is 38


Why is it worth the risk?
What is your risk from having the vaccine - let's see your analysis of how that risk is higher.

 

[Spectric]

If you watched the program on long covid you would go into hibernation, it can turn a young fit athletic person into an old person with symptoms like asthma and overall is going to cost this country millions in looking after them all. Now too many people are acting like it is all over and believing things are back to near normal when in reality we are far from being back to normal. The current virus is now a much lower hazard and once everyone has been vacinated it will be very low but we must not let our guard down and allow any mutant strains to develope or to allow them into the country.

Borris is starting to try and run before fully walking and now poses a real threat to us all, to even contemplate allowing foreign holidays without making quarantine a legal requirement on return is just insane, we all know it will only take one person to start a new wave of a new strain that coulds be vacine immune.

 

[Rorschach]

Strawman

I never mentioned vaccines
And your post I quoted contained lots of stuff that had nothing to do with vaccines.

Ok which bit in the post you quoted was misinformation? If you are going to accuse me of something, provide the evidence.

 

[RobinBHM]

Ok which bit in the post you quoted was misinformation? If you are going to accuse me of something, provide the evidence.

its the same stuff you have repeated on here ad nauseam for many months and debunked by me and others.

for example your claim the risk of dying is approx 1 in 120,000 -the only data we have to show that is from deaths that have occurred despite considerable non pharmaceutical interventions. Yet you claim such interventions weren't necessary....so you are contradicting yourself

You need to either admit the figures you quoted are small because of lockdown measures or you need to quote what the death rate wouldve been without lockdown measures. But you want it both ways.

 

[Jacob]

its the same stuff you have repeated on here ad nauseam for many months and debunked by me and others.

for example your claim the risk of dying is approx 1 in 120,000 -the only data we have to show that is from deaths that have occurred despite considerable non pharmaceutical interventions. Yet you claim such interventions weren't necessary....so you are contradicting yourself

You need to either admit the figures you quoted are small because of lockdown measures or you need to quote what the death rate wouldve been without lockdown measures. But you want it both ways.

UK. CASES so far 4,357,091. DEATHS: 126,826.
That's 1 in 34 of the infected
Or about 1 in 450 of the UK population
Some way to go, but it looks like the odds on any one person dying of covid could pan out at 350:1?
Seems like short odds to me!

 

[Chris152]

UK. CASES so far 4,357,091. DEATHS: 126,826.
That's 1 in 34 of the infected
Or about 1 in 450 of the UK population
Some way to go, but it looks like the odds on any one person dying of covid could pan out at 350:1?
Seems like short odds to me!

And:
'A total of 1.1 million people in the UK have reported having long COVID, latest estimates show.
The data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) defined the condition as COVID symptoms that lasted more than four weeks and are self-reported, rather than clinically diagnosed.
Of the 1.1 million from private households, 674,000 people were thought to have symptoms that affected their daily life, with 196,000 estimated to have their ability to undertake everyday tasks limited a lot.'
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...ave-long-covid-latest-estimate-shows-12262530

 

[MikeJhn]

 

[RobinBHM]

And:
'A total of 1.1 million people in the UK have reported having long COVID, latest estimates show.
The data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) defined the condition as COVID symptoms that lasted more than four weeks and are self-reported, rather than clinically diagnosed.
Of the 1.1 million from private households, 674,000 people were thought to have symptoms that affected their daily life, with 196,000 estimated to have their ability to undertake everyday tasks limited a lot.'
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...ave-long-covid-latest-estimate-shows-12262530

I would say long covid is a far greater concern than death for many people and a great concern for the health service.


the health service has learnt a lot about covid treatments -and many more people are surviving, however it means longer in hospital -which takes up more resources

 

[George_N]

Thoughts on the vaccine, this is voluntary. Give it to the old and weak first then work your way down the age groups, people below 50 are not on the list to be vaccinated as yet. we don't know the implication and long term affect off this drug. If things go pear shaped and people start dying on masse, then it could take many deaths before they pin it down to these vaccines. Remember the thalidomide drug and the consequences. Don't jab young, as we may need them to repopulate.

The problem with not vaccinating “the young” is that you create a population pool in which the virus can circulate and mutate. A population pool that is highly socially active too. Given that the immunity induced by the vaccine is transient, even after two shots it may only last a year or so, we could very quickly be back to square one. The risks from vaccination are minuscule compared with catching Covid, even for young people.

 

[Rorschach]

1281 Men in the 15-44 age bracket have died with C19. Out of nearly 4.5 million confirmed cases, who knows how many real infections there actually have been, definitely more than 4.5 million though. I would suspect that most of those dying were obese, or had underlying health conditions because I am not seeing news headlines about healthy people dying. In fact I don't think I have seen a single headline of an otherwise healthy person dying with covid.

 

[Rorschach]

UK. CASES so far 4,357,091. DEATHS: 126,826.
That's 1 in 34 of the infected
Or about 1 in 450 of the UK population
Some way to go, but it looks like the odds on any one person dying of covid could pan out at 350:1?
Seems like short odds to me!

Your knowledge of statistics is almost as bad as your knowledge of what voters want.

 

[Rorschach]

its the same stuff you have repeated on here ad nauseam for many months and debunked by me and others.

for example your claim the risk of dying is approx 1 in 120,000 -the only data we have to show that is from deaths that have occurred despite considerable non pharmaceutical interventions. Yet you claim such interventions weren't necessary....so you are contradicting yourself

You need to either admit the figures you quoted are small because of lockdown measures or you need to quote what the death rate wouldve been without lockdown measures. But you want it both ways.

Non pharmaceutical interventions are (supposedly) to stop infections, they have zero effect on the mortality rate. Even you know that!

 

[selectortone]

Yes, totally worth the risk at the moment. I am not saying my opinion won't change with future data but as it stands at the moment I am very comfortable in my decision. Remember, I am one of the people who was never scared in the beginning, catching covid hasn't worried me over the past year so certainly no need to start worrying now. Given the vast majority shows no symptoms or so mild they don't recognise it there is an increasing chance I have already had it, had some weird bugs/malaises in the last 18 months.

So you'd rather risk long covid than the fleetingly small chance of a blood clot.

 

[Rorschach]

So you'd rather risk long covid than the fleetingly small chance of a blood clot.

Personally not too concerned about blood clots as I am not a middle aged woman.

Long covid doesn't worry me at all.

 

[Jonm]

1281 Men in the 15-44 age bracket have died with C19. Out of nearly 4.5 million confirmed cases, who knows how many real infections there actually have been, definitely more than 4.5 million though. I would suspect that most of those dying were obese, or had underlying health conditions because I am not seeing news headlines about healthy people dying. In fact I don't think I have seen a single headline of an otherwise healthy person dying with covid.

I find myself agreeing with you. Here is the latest government heat map. Clearly shows that the under 45 are not at much risk, even less so if you are fit, well and not overweight.

As for long Covid I think it is very unclear at the moment. Self diagnosis indicates that 1.1 million have some symptoms after 4 weeks. I had the very nasty bug which was circulating a bit before Covid, I was certainly still feeling the effects after 4 weeks, it is not unusual to take this time to shake things off. As for the 196 000 who found it affected their ability to undertake everyday tasks after four weeks, this again is a self diagnosis, some people get a sniffle and are knocked for six, others can battle on seemingly unaffected by anything. Is long Covid related to weight, 63% of adult population is overweight or obese. Is it related to some disabilities, there are apparently 14 million disabled in the uk, not sure of the definition though.

I do not want to belittle long covid, it is very serious for some people, I just do not think we have sufficient clinically assessed data available to us to make an assessment of risk for young healthy adults. Perhaps by the time you are offered the vaccine This issue will be clearer.

As for myself, in the older Group, I received a text to book the jab and was there the next day. As we come out of lockdown I will continue to be careful to minimise mine and my wife’s risk.

 

[Spectric]

The problem with not vaccinating “the young” is that you create a population pool in which the virus can circulate and mutate

That is so true yet our government decided to have a race with the virus to see if it can vacinate everyone starting with the oldest before it can mutate, these are very high stakes because the wrong mutation will put us straight back onto the starting line. Our national debt is already at record levels and still growing so we would be in a really dire situation, especially with Borris & co ratling swords with China and trying to restart the cold war with Russia just as they are putting troops on the Ukraniun border. We should have vacinated a percentage of all age groups because that would have distrupted the virus transmission more effectively I believe, rather than concentrate the virus into the younger age groups where long covid is a bigger threat than actually dying and so leaving them still capable of transmission.

 

[Rorschach]

That is so true yet our government decided to have a race with the virus to see if it can vacinate everyone starting with the oldest before it can mutate, these are very high stakes because the wrong mutation will put us straight back onto the starting line. Our national debt is already at record levels and still growing so we would be in a really dire situation, especially with Borris & co ratling swords with China and trying to restart the cold war with Russia just as they are putting troops on the Ukraniun border. We should have vacinated a percentage of all age groups because that would have distrupted the virus transmission more effectively I believe, rather than concentrate the virus into the younger age groups where long covid is a bigger threat than actually dying and so leaving them still capable of transmission.

Totally pointless worrying about mutations arising here in the UK. We could completely vaccinate every single human in the country, but unless we keep our borders totally closed for eternity there will be new variants coming in. They are unlikely to occur here, they will come from 3rd countries. This why flu needs a new vaccine every single year. Better to keep training our immune systems so we build plenty of natural immunity as well as making use of vaccination where appropriate, then we can manage it like we do flu and we will keep deaths each year in the low 10's of thousands.

 

[Spectric]

Here is the latest government heat map. Clearly shows that the under 45 are not at much risk, even less so if you are fit, well and not overweight.

There is an obvious problem that increases the risk of catching Covid in your statement, not overweight. I do not know what it is like in your areas but even before Covid in nearly all the places I visited there were a very large number of under 45's that were doing very good impersonations of a spacehopper. This cannot have improved since Covid so although they should be at lower risk they are probably at higher risk than some of the people in the older groups and therefore should have been vacinated.

 

[Rorschach]

There is an obvious problem that increases the risk of catching Covid in your statement, not overweight. I do not know what it is like in your areas but even before Covid in nearly all the places I visited there were a very large number of under 45's that were doing very good impersonations of a spacehopper. This cannot have improved since Covid so although they should be at lower risk they are probably at higher risk than some of the people in the older groups and therefore should have been vacinated.

I think he was referring to my personal risk.

 

[Spectric]

I agree with Rorschach that mutations will be very hard to deal with but we must do everything possible so as the risk is reduced, this means people need to prove negative before entering the Uk and we do the same before going abroad. It may want to mutate but we need to make it difficult and not an open invite.