One-jab efficacy questions

[southendwoodworker]

Stocks of PPE is irrelevant, you cannot stockpile good for a "maybe" event especially when you don't know what kind of PPE is needed.

- do you have bandages at home? Incase you cut something...
- do you use soap at home? That prevents you from getting sick...

Testing capacity, again irrelevant because you are dealing with an unknown. Most diseases can be identified via symptoms so testing isn't required.

- not when the symptoms look like other diseases
- it was not clear for a long time exactly what symptoms looked like. They had a good idea, but not a precise idea. Testing, even with its flaws, was high precision.

Track and Trace, waste of time when dealing with an airborne virus. As you perfectly point out, perfect for an STD and if Covid was transmitted like an STD the T&T system would have worked, T&T cannot work with an airborne virus though.

- this is an opinion and not a fact, world experts on this topic disagree with you. Hence why most of the world has done the opposite of what you are saying

 

[Rorschach]

Please quantify the number of deaths you think are acceptable.

What do you think is acceptable? If you are going to ask me I assume you have a number in your mind too?

 

[D_W]

Only 59%.
I think you may need to reassess your words "very unlikely"

May I politely ask you why you post stuff that is demonstrably untrue?
There are plenty of high quality scientific sources online....I am curious as to why you don't research your posts a bit better.



"59% of all transmission came from asymptomatic transmission, comprising 35% from presymptomatic individuals and 24% from individuals who never develop symptoms"
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774707

Looks suspect to me. 20% of household transmission is asymptomatic but 59% overall?

 

[southendwoodworker]

What do you think is acceptable? If you are going to ask me I assume you have a number in your mind too?

You seemed upset that the government didn't go forward with the 750k death rate ""plan"". Your post read like your acceptable number was higher.

Mine is of course zero. Unobtainable, but aspirational. Some countries have come close to it.

Given your pattern of selective and partial replies, have you considered the bulk of the rest of my latest two posts? It could be interesting to hear your perspective.

 

[Rorschach]

You seemed upset that the government didn't go forward with the 750k death rate ""plan"". Your post read like your acceptable number was higher.

Mine is of course zero. Unobtainable, but aspirational. Some countries have come close to it.

Given your pattern of selective and partial replies, have you considered the bulk of the rest of my latest two posts? It could be interesting to hear your perspective.

Well if zero is your goal we have nothing to discuss on that matter really.

I didn't want to see 750k, but the fact that the government deemed this a reasonable figure with little to no restriction on day to day activity just puts things into perspective.

As to your other points, there is so much there crammed into each post it's difficult to address properly.

 

[sometimewoodworker]

-


“Track and Trace, waste of time when dealing with an airborne virus. As you perfectly point out, perfect for an STD and if Covid was transmitted like an STD the T&T system would have worked, T&T cannot work with an airborne virus though.”

- this is an opinion and not a fact, world experts on this topic disagree with you. Hence why most of the world has done the opposite of what you are saying

@southendwoodworker I completely agree, for how it should have worked do take a look at a country that has a similar population to the U.K. but has always had an effective Track and Trace system. For the first year total deaths were under 70 total infections under 10,000
Yes there were local lockdowns (triggered by the TT system) yes mask wearing was much better than in the U.K. yes there is, and has been, virtually universal temperature checking in all big shops, transportation etc.

No the situation is nowhere near as good today with wave 3 managing to get infections up as high as 2,000 per day and the total number of deaths getting near to 450. But then vaccination is almost nonexistent in the general population.
Will it be controlled? I see no reason why not. Could things have been done better? Absolutely

 

[Rorschach]

@southendwoodworker I completely agree, for how it should have worked do take a look at a country that has a similar population to the U.K. but has always had an effective Track and Trace system. For the first year total deaths were under 70 total infections under 10,000
Yes there were local lockdowns (triggered by the TT system) yes mask wearing was much better than in the U.K. yes there is, and has been, virtually universal temperature checking in all big shops, transportation etc.

No the situation is nowhere near as good today with wave 3 managing to get infections up as high as 2,000 per day and the total number of deaths getting near to 450. But then vaccination is almost nonexistent in the general population.
Will it be controlled? I see no reason why not. Could things have been done better? Absolutely

If you are referring to Thailand you are talking about a country that likely had lots of natural immunity and experience due to it's previous experience of SARS and started from a much lower baseline of infections. Temperature checking at shops etc? Total waste of time as has already been shown.

 

[D_W]

What is the level of chinese tourism to thailand? I'm not trying to trigger anyone, but NY and northern italy both got blasted in early waves, likely due to the level of covid that was there before it was known, and then compounded by slow action (heavily regulated societies with a lot of freedom and politicians afraid of infringing on it tend to lead to this).

 

[Terry - Somerset]

If you bother to look you will find that both Public Health England and NHS England have explicit responsibilities for putting in place contingency plans, test and trace, maintaining effective laboratories etc etc.

The Civil Contingncies Act 2004 was a key driver as it sought to impose a clear set of roles and responsibilities on those organisations with a role to play in preparing for and responding to emergencies.

Having stocks of PPE, testing capability, track and trace etc is a fundamental part of the contingency plan. Inadequate preparation evidences unambiguous failure.

 

[sometimewoodworker]

What is the level of chinese tourism to thailand?

It’s very high as parts of the north almost border with China Yunnan is only about 140km away, there were quite a few charter flights each week. Not at all uncommon to find over 10 Chinese tour coaches at popular sights any day of the week.

The first identified infection was in January but it was probably circulating earlier, as it was in Italy.

I theorise that there may be a higher level of vitamin D , this would make infection less serious though the high levels of diabetes will not help

 

[D_W]

you could very well be right about sun exposure and lower levels of infection. I'd bet the asymptomatic cases are higher and figure that the scare information about more than half of the cases being spready by asymptomatic individuals or presymptomatic are overstated as tracking and tracing PCR positive cases of asymptomatic individuals never really yields that much in terms of future positive cases.

 

[Selwyn]

If you bother to look you will find that both Public Health England and NHS England have explicit responsibilities for putting in place contingency plans, test and trace, maintaining effective laboratories etc etc.

The Civil Contingncies Act 2004 was a key driver as it sought to impose a clear set of roles and responsibilities on those organisations with a role to play in preparing for and responding to emergencies.

Having stocks of PPE, testing capability, track and trace etc is a fundamental part of the contingency plan. Inadequate preparation evidences unambiguous failure.

They had stocks of PPE but a lot of PPE was getting hoarded by different health authorities. And then the media hysteria got worse. We did have a shortage of course - it depends how you want to view things - should we always have an excess of supplies on a limited budget or divert the budget to other measures? There was probably a lot of waste in ppe early on too.

Track and trace by phone etc was never going to work, never did and to be honest probably would have made no difference after the first wave as the virus was then endemic.

Effective labs would be good but the sheer number of people having tests with no symptomns (even though explicitly told not to have a test if not ill etc) just when totally ott. This virus is so obviously now seasonal the whole thing is laughable

 

[Rorschach]

the sheer number of people having tests with no symptomns (even though explicitly told not to have a test if not ill etc) just when totally ott.

Just look at the test positivity rates, ignoring the March 2020 part when we were only doing highly targeted testing of those in hospitals really you can see that once mass testing started the vast majority of it was a waste of time. What on earth are you meant to do when you have a disease that can only be identified by a test? Madness really and a shocking waste of money.

 

[Rorschach]

And to give an idea of just how much of a waste of money it is, this is how many tests were being performed.

 

[RobinBHM]

Looks suspect to me. 20% of household transmission is asymptomatic but 59% overall?

I cant see how you arrive at that -household transmission is not mentioned in that article.

 

[RobinBHM]

The evidence that without lockdown interaction there would be a greater virus speed is moot. In appears the viral load reached its peak before lockdown was enacted.

the viral load did not reach its peak before lockdown was enacted.....please stop stating opinions as fact.

official "lockdown" dates are not when Non pharmaceutical interventions commenced.

 

[RobinBHM]

They did spot that.

it was noted, but they still dishonestly used the official start date of full lockdown for their claim.

 

[RobinBHM]

Most diseases can be identified via symptoms so testing isn't required.

59% of covid transmission is by asymptomatic or pre symptomatic people

so you are spouting hogwash, as usual

why do you lie to yourself so much?

 

[RobinBHM]

I am really confused about the message you are trying to convey, the ultimate goal was to reduce deaths, but your arguments throughout this forum seem to suggest that you are upset about lockdowns impacted your life and that you are happy for a higher death rate of people you don't know?

Rorschach main argument is that there was a choice between letting old people die and protecting the economy....which is completely false.

 

[Rorschach]

59% of covid transmission is by asymptomatic or pre symptomatic people

so you are spouting hogwash, as usual

why do you lie to yourself so much?

I didn't mention covid in that quote.