- 17 Nov 2018
- Reaction score
- North Yorkshire
I can assure you I haven’t swallowed anything.Covid is following its familiar pattern. The early growth of the virus is explosive and then it slows rapidly. Its no secret data - positive tests are slowing rapidly now. You have swallowed the continuous exponential growth theory unless there is lockdown - its been disproved so many times now
In my opinion there is a correlation between lockdowns and curbing the impact of the virus. Without them we would have seen higher peaks with surges lasting over a longer period.
I also recognise though that they are a blunt tool and there is a difficult judgement call as to where the side effects outweigh the benefits. That is made all the more difficult as it involves making decisions with incomplete data that ultimately are a matter of life and death which in my belief goes beyond just the economic impacts.
Anyway thanks for sharing your insight. We’re obviously lucky to have an optimistic expert on virology and statistics amongst us