Nah it's not, it's a little bit more lethal but not 10x more, we are still way to early to compare it properly to flu.
One-jab efficacy questions
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Nah it's not, it's a little bit more lethal but not 10x more, we are still way to early to compare it properly to flu.
Jacob
Pint of bass, porkpie, and packet of crisps please
It's a rough measure but most studies say 10 times. here's just one: Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu "at present, it is thought to be substantially higher (possibly 10 times or more) than that of most strains of the flu."
Maybe you should drop them a line and tell them they got it wrong?
I have seen quotes of 10x 5x 3x and 1.5x as deadly as flu. We don't test for flu much, we certainly don't count flu deaths within 28 days of a positive test. We have a (varying efficacy) vaccine for flu as well as hundreds if not thousands of years of natural immunity to flu. Spanish flu was very deadly the first time it hit, it now comes almost every year and barely marks the register.
Like I said, it's way to early to tell, this is a new virus, we are overhyping everything and it will take time for sense to prevail and normality to resume. We have no idea of how many real cases we have had. Some estimates say we could have had 5x as many cases as the official tested figures suggest, maybe even more when you have so many asymptomatic children. That would change the stats greatly if we could get better data on that.
Come back in a few years and we'll get a much better idea of really how much more deadly it is than flu. I am not saying it isn't more deadly, I am sure it is, but very unlikely to be as high as 10x.
You got that spot on, its some twerp anti vaccination halfwit.
Naff off, go back to your conspiracy sites and spout your low intellect nonsense there.
It varies a lot but about 10,000 people a year die from flu in the UK, this year is very low probably partly because the take up of vaccine is very high. If by how deadly you mean the percentage of infected people who die you will get one result, if you mean how many people die from a population you will get another, either way there are a lot of excess deaths this last year. Not all Covid, there will be people who die due to increased waiting lists or not going to the doctor or even economic effects etc. but 126,000 is still a lot of people.
If you look at the trends it's quite probable that Measles would have been eradicated in the US by now if it wasn't for the anti vax lobby. Anybody remember Polio it's almost gone. Small pox who?
This isn't the place for it but the history of the anti measles lobby makes interesting / disturbing reading if you want a real conspiracy not one based on fantasy.
Terry - Somerset
Established Member
Up to 10 times, possibly as low as 4 times based on a simplistic analysis with imperfect data.
Bear in mind that the lower flu deaths are from a population where the most vulnerable are vaccinated annually (in the UK) and covid where deaths are almost entirely before vaccine intervention.
Separating the impact of lockdown and vaccination is difficult, but together they have radically reduced hospitalisations and deaths.
There may be a cyclical rise in covid cases in the winter - the best description I've heard is a "ripple" not a tsunami!
Jonm
Established Member
You may be correct in your statement that Covid is “not a dangerous disease for 99%+ of the population”. I suspect that if we include long Covid and an overwhelmed NHS then it would be less than 99%. The problem of course is that we cannot identify the people that are susceptible to covid. We know that they either have pre existing conditions or are in the over 50 age group. The risk increasing with age. There is also the issue of variants. There is the South African variant which may be in uk and there could be others.
I think the problem is that if we end lockdown and end all restrictions now, we would have lots of people with Covid very quickly. The vaccine is not 100 percent effective, there could be variants which get past the vaccine, there is a real risk of a rapid rise in hospitalisation and deaths and a return to some form of lockdown. On the other hand it could go really well.
I can understand the governments caution. One step at a time, and monitor what happens. Ease restrictions and if things go wrong we can go back one step for a while. We may be able to identify the cause, it may be pubs and clubs or perhaps spectator sport like football matches. If we open up fully in one go and it’s s disaster then the step back is lockdown and this needs to be the last one for us. This second wave with the UK variant has been dreadful for us, more deaths than the first wave.
But yes, I take your point, perhaps we are being too cautious, but I can understand why the government us taking this approach. It is almost a first, me agreeing with Johnson, perhaps he is listening to the experts.
Jonm
Established Member
I am in the vulnerable age group so it was a case of either protecting myself against a fairly high risk of serious illness or death versus the very low risk of an unknown side effect. It was a simple choice, I took the vaccine, as did everyone I know who has been offered it.
For someone younger it is not so simple, the risk of the disease to them Is far less and they hopefully have more years to live for any long term effect to become apparent.
Not so sure about the bad press for AZ, seems to be coming from Germany. Phizer, German company selling vaccine at £15 per dose AZ selllng at £3 per dose. EU getting criticised for not placing order early enough so AZ could put infrastructure in place to produce the vaccine. Macron calling AZ " quasi-ineffective" in older people. Lot of politics in this.
I do know that it is vaccines like AZ which are stored at normal fridge temperature which are needed to get to the poor countries, refugee camps and ghettos of the world. Phizer stored at -70 deg C in batches of 1000 in special nitrogen filled flasks will not do it.
Thoughts on the vaccine, this is voluntary. Give it to the old and weak first then work your way down the age groups, people below 50 are not on the list to be vaccinated as yet. we don't know the implication and long term affect off this drug. If things go pear shaped and people start dying on masse, then it could take many deaths before they pin it down to these vaccines. Remember the thalidomide drug and the consequences. Don't jab young, as we may need them to repopulate.
If anyone wants to read about the development of mRNA vaccines over the last ten years or so try
https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243It's a bit heavy going and pitched at people with a significant level of understanding of immune response well above my own. Most of the early work appears to have been directed at treating Rabies, cancer and AIDs
https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243It's a bit heavy going and pitched at people with a significant level of understanding of immune response well above my own. Most of the early work appears to have been directed at treating Rabies, cancer and AIDs
If I was 60 or had an underlying health condition, heck even if I was just really fat, I would be getting jabbed. But I am young, healthy, slim, no health problems and I hope to live for a long time yet. I will wait a while before getting jabbed, who know what the long term complications could be? Look at something like Gulf War syndrome for example, vaccines and medication given with no long term testing, didn't turn out well did it.
The chance of my dying of C19 (according to Aus Uni study of the first wave) are approx 1 in 120,000, less than 0.0001%. The chance of me dying in a road accident this year are around 1 in 30,000. I am still driving.
Covid-related conspiracy theories tend to be pretty poor. There are much more interesting and convincing ones out there, ones with clear means and purpose that we don't tend to see but that affect our daily lives. I like the idea that people promoting the covid conspiracies have been conspired against by people who want the world's economies to keep rolling along in spite of the effect on human life, and that the people who are regurgitating the theories have themselves been duped - it's a pleasing irony.
Anyway, I think we have a reasonable answer to Q.1, but Q.2 hangs in the balance. As I recall, a couple of members on here are specialists and might be able to answer that one more fully but for some reason, they seem now to avoid threads with the word 'Covid' in them
Thanks all who tried to answer.
Anyway, I think we have a reasonable answer to Q.1, but Q.2 hangs in the balance. As I recall, a couple of members on here are specialists and might be able to answer that one more fully but for some reason, they seem now to avoid threads with the word 'Covid' in them
Thanks all who tried to answer.
selectortone
Still waking up not dead in the morning
You might regret not having it if you get the disease and then become one of the not inconsequential number of those suffering from long covid in the aftermath. That definitely doesn't sound like fun.
And before you trot out some stats suggesting your age group is golden and suffers the least, is it worth the risk?
Yes, totally worth the risk at the moment. I am not saying my opinion won't change with future data but as it stands at the moment I am very comfortable in my decision. Remember, I am one of the people who was never scared in the beginning, catching covid hasn't worried me over the past year so certainly no need to start worrying now. Given the vast majority shows no symptoms or so mild they don't recognise it there is an increasing chance I have already had it, had some weird bugs/malaises in the last 18 months.
RobinBHM
Established Member
It is a free country, you are perfectly entitled to be wrong.
I just wish you wouldn't spread misinformation.
What misinformation have I spread on vaccines?
Jacob
Pint of bass, porkpie, and packet of crisps please
And we don't want you or anybody else to die out of ignorance!
RobinBHM
Established Member
Strawman
I never mentioned vaccines
And your post I quoted contained lots of stuff that had nothing to do with vaccines.
RobinBHM
Established Member
Exactly.
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