One-jab efficacy questions

[RobinBHM]

If you read my comments after you will see that I took it very much in context

Look at Our World in Data and look at the data from India now. Curves slowing, testing massively ramped up so naturally more covid on the pcr.

I'm correct about it. You need to look beyond the narrative you are fed and see the data yourself.

That is demonstrably incorrect, you said "The BBC said Indias cases are slowing"

You dishonestly avoided including the part where the BBC said "cases are slowing because they are testing less"

So very much not in context.
And No you are not correct about it

 

[Trainee neophyte]

What about your Statement “They can't even isolate covid let alone a variant” which I do not understand.

In the outer reaches of the internet there is an idea that the actual coronavirus genome in question has not, and can not, be separated and specifically identified. The idea has quite a lot of traction. A few examples and/or indignant fact-checking rebuttals:

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-afs:Content:9847920299https://www.aap.com.au/proof-the-virus-behind-covid-19-doesnt-exist-fails-basic-biology-test/https://quintessentiallylynne.weebl...isease-which-still-hasnt-been-proven-to-exist
You can get yourself removed from most social media for putting this idea forward - if it's true, it's being heavily redacted, and if it's nonsense, it's being heavily redacted. Either way, it's considered bad form to mention it.

That is demonstrably incorrect, you said "The BBC said Indias cases are slowing"

You dishonestly avoided including the part where the BBC said "cases are slowing because they are testing less"

Correlation is not causation. Reduction in cases is fact. Reason for reduction in cases is hypothesis, speculation, theorising, unless you have data to back it up. I'm not saying that less testing isn't the reason for fewer cases, but there could be other reasons, such as, for example, fewer cases?

It's a million to one chance, but it just might happen.

 

[TominDales]

Comparatively Brazil is doing the same as we are/were so doesn't look so bad (at the moment).

um we aren't a great example, tallest midget in the midget parade comes to mind. Recently our speedy vaccine role out and effective recovery from the 3rd wave (or 2.5th wave), we are looking better/saving some face, but overall we have had one of the highest mortality rates globally. Brazils rate will probably overtake ours over the summer but, as the country that lectured the world on the virtues of public health track, trace and isolate, we have a lot of egg-on-face in my view.

 

[Jonm]

In the outer reaches of the internet there is an idea that the actual coronavirus genome in question has not, and can not, be separated and specifically identified. The idea has quite a lot of traction. A few examples and/or indignant fact-checking rebuttals:

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-afs:Content:9847920299https://www.aap.com.au/proof-the-virus-behind-covid-19-doesnt-exist-fails-basic-biology-test/https://quintessentiallylynne.weebl...isease-which-still-hasnt-been-proven-to-exist
You can get yourself removed from most social media for putting this idea forward - if it's true, it's being heavily redacted, and if it's nonsense, it's being heavily redacted. Either way, it's considered bad form to mention it.

Correlation is not causation. Reduction in cases is fact. Reason for reduction in cases is hypothesis, speculation, theorising, unless you have data to back it up. I'm not saying that less testing isn't the reason for fewer cases, but there could be other reasons, such as, for example, fewer cases?

It's a million to one chance, but it just might happen.

Thank you for the info. Hopefully Selwyn will give his alternative viewpoint.

 

[D_W]

That is demonstrably incorrect, you said "The BBC said Indias cases are slowing"

You dishonestly avoided including the part where the BBC said "cases are slowing because they are testing less"

So very much not in context.
And No you are not correct about it

Are they testing less because the positive rate is less or because there are fewer cases to test? Generally, lower positive case totals come along with lack of cases or lack of severity .

We heard the same thing here "oh, they're just testing less!!", but the positive rate was half by then even after reduced testing.

 

[Rorschach]

um we aren't a great example, tallest midget in the midget parade comes to mind. Recently our speedy vaccine role out and effective recovery from the 3rd wave (or 2.5th wave), we are looking better/saving some face, but overall we have had one of the highest mortality rates globally. Brazils rate will probably overtake ours over the summer but, as the country that lectured the world on the virtues of public health track, trace and isolate, we have a lot of egg-on-face in my view.

May I remind you we had one of the strictest lockdowns in the world, so are you saying lockdown didn't work?

 

[RobinBHM]

Correlation is not causation. Reduction in cases is fact. Reason for reduction in cases is hypothesis, speculation, theorising, unless you have data to back it up. I'm not saying that less testing isn't the reason for fewer cases, but there could be other reasons, such as, for example, fewer cases

I suppose there could be a million to one chance Selywn might be correct and India is over the peak

Yesterday experts said "peak yet to come"



5 days ago experts said peak in 20'days

India to reach 'peak' of 2nd Covid wave in 20 days from now, says SBI Research

Other experts suggest June:

India’s deadly second wave of Covid-19 might not peak before June
https://qz.com/india/2003650/indias-second-wave-of-covid-19-might-not-peak-before-june/

 

[RobinBHM]

May I remind you we had one of the strictest lockdowns in the world

The UK has never had a full lockdown at all.

And certainly nowhere as severe as most European countries.

 

[Rorschach]

The UK has never had a full lockdown at all.

And certainly nowhere as severe as most European countries.

Yawn!

 

[RobinBHM]

so are you saying lockdown didn't work

UKs lockdowns started too late every time.
Borders never shut
Test and trace was a failure
Insufficient testing capacity
Lack of PPE

 

[Blackswanwood]

Apologies if this has been pointed to before.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-lockdowns/
It’s interesting to see how the lockdowns played through over time on the map.

 

[Blackswanwood]

Are they testing less because the positive rate is less or because there are fewer cases to test? Generally, lower positive case totals come along with lack of cases or lack of severity .

In a nutshell tests are down because they are in a mess. The current data coming out of India is flawed.

That’s based on talking to people I work with who are in India.

There is another expert on here who may be along soon to point out that based on his secret data India has peaked though ....

 

[RobinBHM]

In a nutshell tests are down because they are in a mess

^^^
This

 

[Selwyn]

That is demonstrably incorrect, you said "The BBC said Indias cases are slowing"

You dishonestly avoided including the part where the BBC said "cases are slowing because they are testing less"

So very much not in context.
And No you are not correct about it

Er no, I specificlly wrote "as an addendum testing is slowing too". But there is a good reason why that is not the whole story - mainly because more testing tends to dig out more cases.

 

[Selwyn]

In a nutshell tests are down because they are in a mess. The current data coming out of India is flawed.

That’s based on talking to people I work with who are in India.

There is another expert on here who may be along soon to point out that based on his secret data India has peaked though ....

Covid is following its familiar pattern. The early growth of the virus is explosive and then it slows rapidly. Its no secret data - positive tests are slowing rapidly now. You have swallowed the continuous exponential growth theory unless there is lockdown - its been disproved so many times now

 

[Selwyn]

UKs lockdowns started too late every time.
Borders never shut
Test and trace was a failure
Insufficient testing capacity
Lack of PPE

Ah right, so we didn't do it properly enough?

Cause of the biggest spike was emptying the hosptials of the elderly into care homes.

 

[Rorschach]

Ah right, so we didn't do it properly enough?

The familiar cry of the lockdown fanatic, "harder, longer, sooner".

 

[Selwyn]

The familiar cry of the lockdown fanatic, "harder, longer, sooner".

Its just crazy. Every answer is lockdown but they don't seem to be looking at the evidence that lockdowns do more harm than good. I could accept the first lockdown for a little while as we didn't know what we were dealing with but its just gone way ott.

The levels of fear that have been created is just mindboggling. Covid numbers will rise again this autumn and we will have more of this lockdown demands again.

 

[RobinBHM]

Its just crazy. Every answer is lockdown but they don't seem to be looking at the evidence that lockdowns do more harm than good. I could accept the first lockdown for a little while as we didn't know what we were dealing with but its just gone way ott.

The third word in this post of yours is the only rational explanation for the rest

I do worry about you Selwyn, I really do

I wish you well

 

[Selwyn]

The third word in this post of yours is the only rational explanation for the rest

I do worry about you Selwyn, I really do

I wish you well

Don't leave your bedroom again Robin. Its just too risky.