Old duffers rebellion.
- Thread starter Rorschach
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I think that the damage of the existing lockdown is largely already done, and even a couple of months difference isn't going to make a huge difference to that one way or the other.
From my perspective (and in this it's worth bearing in mind I've only ever worked for or managed business units within "Huge Corporations", so it's a view which is coloured by those experiences), the state of a business going into lockdown, is much more important in determining if it will survive than the length of time that it's required to stay "paused".
Purely anecdotally from a B2B sales point of view, we've seen a much more buoyant market at work recently, with a lot of businesses having survived, adapted and gone back to growing, leading us to beat our forecasts (including COVID impact adjustment) and budget (set before COVID was expected to be a thing) for the year...
However, I am convinced that if we manage to create a situation where we open up too fast, then are forced to consider (not necessarily even go, for but just seriously discuss) a third lockdown, the impact on both market sentiments, and consumer confidence will result in even more damage to business.
Moreover, because they're likely to only just be starting to get back on their feet, and at the bottom of their reserves from restarting yet again... That has the potential to be a much much worse hit, than any previous impacts.
Some people would go so far to say that it's a good thing that weak businesses collapse, market forces, blah, blah, but I'm not convinced that one-dimensional analysis has much to merit it, given the major social costs associated with businesses folding, and how callous it sounds to the real people who have lost their livelihoods.
But the events of FY20/21 should be a stark warning for businesses and investors of how important it is to maintain healthy reserves and develop meaningful contingency and disaster recovery plans before they're needed...
Which probably means it's a good sign if investor returns and commercial lending rates return to normal slower than the speed at which businesses return to normal; which will result in slower GDP growth for the UK, because so much of GDP is linked to financial services.
Just released, 548 deaths for today. As everyone knows Tuesday is almost always the "worst" day for death figures as it has the missed figures from the weekend.
548 is a 32% drop compared to last weeks 799. The 7 day average has also fallen by almost exactly the same amount. If rates continue to fall at that rate we would be under 100 deaths in a month. Will be interesting to see if that's true and how pressure on the government changes with those kinds of numbers.
548 is a 32% drop compared to last weeks 799. The 7 day average has also fallen by almost exactly the same amount. If rates continue to fall at that rate we would be under 100 deaths in a month. Will be interesting to see if that's true and how pressure on the government changes with those kinds of numbers.
That's not what I am hearing from hospitality on the radio, literally every day makes things worse and apparently 1 in 3 businesses do not expect to survive past mid March.
I agree a lot of the damage has already been done (we won't see the true results until subsidies are removed) but I think there is still plenty more damage that can be done. Remember, another 3 months for some business represents an approx 50% increase in their time closed since last March.
Terry - Somerset
Established Member
I think a significant number of businesses have, and will, fail. Owners and staff have my sympathy - it is a very difficult time. Economically the consequences may be far less severe.
- it is estimated that lockdowns increased savings by the more fortunate by £150bn. A large part may be spent later in the year on holidays, consumer goods, cars, house improvements etc
- many failed hospitality businesses (hotels, bars, restaurants) will be sold by adminstrators to pay creditors. Many will be sold to new investors with (probably) banks absorbing most of the losses
- changes to the high street are likely to be more permanent as online shopping and work from home are increasingly embedded. The major losers will be the property companies and the banks whose security is devalued
I am an optimist but I am not as optimistic as you. A whole years worth of holidays (possibly more) are missing, even with savings made there are only so many holidays that people will have time for or want to take. Same goes for consumer goods and cars, there is only so much stuff people will want to buy and since a lot of people will have gone for a year without XXX item, maybe they realise they didn't need it after all.
Also for all the people that have saved lots of money there are many more who have lost a lot of money and lost their jobs. When the furlough scheme ends there will hundreds of thousands, maybe millions added to the unemployed, regardless of the economic impact for those people losing your job is a massive mental health strain, I know how awful it feels.
Phillemare
Member
You have hit the nail on the head.....well I did think this was a woodworking page....listen to those on the front line, Our NHS nurses putting their lives at risk for us, listen to the scientist, especially those from SAGE that have no axe to grind, look and fully understand the all statistics that emanate from this government, at last it looks as if Johnson is going in the right direction with this pandemic, and my god he has made some life costing mistakes this year, get a grip you doubters and for once believe the experts and the majority.
And how stuffed would the country be with no one left.
What a silly argument since that is clearly never going to be the case is it? We know C19 has a survival rate of over 99.9%, so we are not going to reach a point where there is no-one left even if we did absolutely nothing in the way of vaccinations or social distancing. We could quite literally all go out and lick the face of every stranger we meet and still more than 99% of the population would be left alive afterwards.
No I think you have the exclusive rights to silly arguments.
Oh so I am wrong and it will kill everyone?
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