How would you rate the UK's handling of this pandemic?

[Selwyn]

Any excess deaths are horrific and should never be classed as collateral damage but there is no simple answer to the question. It was concuded by some experts that throughout last year even when hospitals were quiet late summer people were still avoiding hospitals, doctors and surgeries as they were scared, there were tv adverts saying "the NHS is open for business, don't put health issues off", what else were they suposed to do? You cant force people.
The other question that also has to be asked is how do we know there would not have been even more excess deaths at home had the hospitals and surgeries been completely overun and many more staff off work ill because the virus was allowed to run even more rampant than it did?

Both my wife and daughter had major operations in September without issue because they had the sense to do something about it I know others locally who didn't, not the fault of the system.

Given that the IFR curve looks very similar all over Europe (incl Sweden) then it appears unlikely that there would have been massive amounts of excess deaths if we hadn't locked down.

Take away the care home cock up which was a mistake, take away excess deaths from non covid which arguably could have been saved at some point and then its a different picture. If you have a few years with below excess deaths then at some stage surely you can see that you will have excess deaths at some point?? It has to be unless you believe octogenarians should live forever?

There is no doubt there was a genuine huge spike of excess deaths last April. But now it is a quite a smaller hump of excess deaths but the data is not all there yet. It seems unlikely we will have a massive amount of excess winter deaths so far.

 

[Lons]

Yes but those same hospitals are always busy. We get respiratory disease spikes every year

My info is from family who actually work in hospitals throughout the UK as well as from 1 who is a GP we also have a large number of close NHS friends because of my wife now retired and my family so I'm happy my information is first hand and that tells me this year is way above a normal busy flu season. One of them btw is bed manager of a very large hospital so would you expect her to have more accurate information than forum members searching via google?

I'm not going to argue as it's pointless you should just be happy that if you are ill your local hospital can apparently accommodate you,

This thread has run it's course many times over, the same old comments ( not saying yours btw ) are being posted, they may well have been cut and pasted from the deleted thread.

 

[Jelly]

The constant testing of asymptomatics or even those who don't have it using a super sensitive pcr is total skewing the whole thing. We will never escape from this if we keep pcr testing like this

That's genuinely one of the most ridiculous things I've heard on this topic to date.

By your logic if I'm about to get hit by a bus, I can close my eyes and the situation will magically resolve itself with me unharmed.

 

[Selwyn]

Are you prepared to say why not. Does it threaten your physical security, or perhaps, lead to an undermining of your stated fact that concerns you?

No I just don't want to talk about my local hospital.

But its about 300 deaths from covid from a 400k population if it helps. 0.07%. Thats my health board not my hospital - we have about 4 or 5 hospitals. I have no doubt excess deaths from non covid sources will be higher. And I have also have no doubt that of those 300 people who died from covid I would expect (but we are not given the data) the vast majority would have been vulnerable to any number of things. Its not a good enough reason to trash young peoples lives for in my opinion but there are a lot of featherbedded pensioners on here or people who do not rely on a good economy for their jobs

 

[Selwyn]

My info is from family who actually work in hospitals throughout the UK as well as from 1 who is a GP we also have a large number of close NHS friends because of my wife now retired and my family so I'm happy my information is first hand and that tells me this year is way above a normal busy flu season. One of them btw is bed manager of a very large hospital so would you expect her to have more accurate information than forum members searching via google?

I'm not going to argue as it's pointless you should just be happy that if you are ill your local hospital can apparently accommodate you,

This thread has run it's course many times over, the same old comments ( not saying yours btw ) are being posted, they may well have been cut and pasted from the deleted thread.

Fair enough. Some hospitals will have local spikes. But you also need to acknowledge many don't. As I say there were 30k excess deaths (non covid) which we didn't save last year. And the hospitals were not full of covid patients in jul-october.

 

[Selwyn]

That's genuinely one of the most ridiculous things I've heard on this topic to date.

By your logic if I'm about to get hit by a bus, I can close my eyes and the situation will magically resolve itself with me unharmed.

We are testing ourselves into a box. Test the people who are ill. The people who are not ill are that - not ill.

This is the first time we have started pretending that not unwell people are "diseased". Its ridiculous.

 

[Jelly]

We are testing ourselves into a box. Test the people who are ill. The people who are not ill are that - not ill.

This is the first time we have started pretending that not unwell people are "diseased". Its ridiculous.

I presume that you are unfamiliar with the story of Mary "Typhoid Mary" Malkin who was eventually identified as an asymptomatic carrier then forcibly quarantined after causing hundreds of people to contract Typhus and 53 directly attributable deaths.

That story proves that the identification of asymptomatic carriers has been conceptually part of public health since the 1890's...

Convincing all members of at risk populations to undergo testing was a major part in how the western world brought the spread of HIV/AIDS under control, which has largely been a success.



I presume that now I've refuted your claims you'll move on to some other argument without acknowledging that you just stated a bunch of stuff which had no basis in fact.

Just because you desperately want something to be true, doesn't make it so.

 

[Jake]

90% are over 65. A minute number are in their 30's and 40's. A small number in their 50's. Most likely these people will have been clinically vulnerable.

That is just false. The ICNARC figures are crystal clear.

 

[Selwyn]

I presume that you are unfamiliar with the story of Mary "Typhoid Mary" Malkin who was eventually identified as an asymptomatic carrier then forcibly quarantined after causing hundreds of people to contract Typhus and 53 directly attributable deaths.

This has been conceptually part of public health since the 1890's...

Convincing all members of at risk populations to undergo testing was a major part in how the western world brought the spread of HIV/AIDS under control, which has largely been a success.

I presume that now I've refuted your claims you'll move on to some other argument without acknowledging that you just stated a bunch of stuff which had no basis in fact.

Do you realise how sensitive the pcr test is? It amplifies the viral strands way beyond what is transmissible. It is innaccurate to keep testing people who are healthy this way.

HIV and Typhoid are different virus'

 

[RobinBHM]

Do you know how many of these people would die in a 10 month period in a "normal" year?

Almost none.

The mortality rate of people of working age, working full time is tiny.

 

[RobinBHM]

90% are over 65. A minute number are in their 30's and 40's. A small number in their 50's. Most likely these people will have been clinically vulnerable.

Untrue.

"Clinically vulnerable" doesn't mean people on their last legs.

It includes people living perfectly normal lives that have a chronic health condition....diabetes, high blood pressure, heart issues, COPD, immune disorders, CKD and many others

 

[Rorschach]

Almost none.

The mortality rate of people of working age, working full time is tiny.

Got any data for that or is it just what you think it is?

 

[Jelly]

Do you realise how sensitive the pcr test is? It amplifies the viral strands way beyond what is transmissible. It is innaccurate to keep testing people who are healthy this way.

Would you believe it, once upon a time I actually ran PCR sample preparation techniques with my own two hands, so I am quite familiar with the techniques.

Moreover after years now working in the chemical sciences, I'm intimately familiar with the design of analytical protocols too, and am not confused or alarmed by the idea of amplification to make something more measurable...

So long as the experimental design is good, the mathematical methods for data handling are appropriate, and the error remains well quantified (which would be normal for just about any laboratory), then it doesn't affect the validity of the results.

HIV and Typhoid are different virus'

You will be shocked to discover that I am in fact familiar with the concept of there being more than one disease...

It doesn't stop the effective public health campaigns run to control them from effectively refuting your initial argument (which again, was hugely overstated, and as a result is well refuted by historical fact).



Also, for the record it would be more appropriate to use virus's than virus'.

The major style guides are all clear that only time an s after a possessive apostrophe should be dropped is if it also precedes a word beginning in an s.

Otherwise the sentence does parse well as natural speech would, and becomes harder to read.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

I dont think you understand how a virus works.
...Pandemics have never been driven by asymptomatics....

Erm... sweeping statement...everyone who has ever caught any virus of any kind was initially asymptomatic for some period of time...

 

[RobinBHM]

Do you realise how sensitive the pcr test is? It amplifies the viral strands way beyond what is transmissible. It is innaccurate to keep testing people who are healthy this way.

HIV and Typhoid are different virus'

That is a somewhat false argument.

It is true that the PCR test is very sensitive. Gene fragments might be detected and return a positive. The PCR test alone isn't proof of active viral RNA that has the capacity to infect the person or get transmitted to other people.

Two key metrics that characterize the test are needed to interpret the results of imperfect tests: the diagnostic sensitivity and diagnostic specificity (or commonly, ‘‘sensitivity’’ and ‘‘specificity’’).11 At present, there is limited information about these values for widely used SARS-CoV-2 tests.

However that doesn't mean PCR tests are a waste of time of give false data

Public Health England understands the limitations of testing and political decisions aren't based on the raw data from the tests.


In an ideal world every test would be cultured in a lab, which would prove active RNA.

Please also bear in mind testing has identified the mutation currently spreading as well as other variants like the African one.


To say the PCR is too sensitive and of no value is simply untrue......you need to look at detail and context.

 

[RobinBHM]

So long as the experimental design is good, the mathematical methods for data handling are appropriate, and the error remains well quantified (which would be normal for just about any laboratory), then it doesn't affect the validity of the results

Yes indeed, people who discount the PCR test because it is imperfect ignore the fact tests are interpreted to give valuable information.

Sadly the detail and nuance in science leaves a nice space for dishonest arguments to fester.

 

[RobinBHM]

Got any data for that or is it just what you think it is?

It's called critical thinking.

This is how it goes:
In a typical year X number of healthcare workers will die of disease.

In a year with a Covid pandemic, X number of healthcare workers will die of disease + and extra amount of Y that contract Covid.

It is true a tiny number of Y will Overlap group X....but anybody with an ounce of logic can see that overlap will be very small.


You really are scraping the barrel in your quest to cling to your false arguments.......it is your choice to lie to yourself.

 

[RobinBHM]

We are testing ourselves into a box. Test the people who are ill. The people who are not ill are that - not ill.

This is the first time we have started pretending that not unwell people are "diseased". Its ridiculous.

That's a very strange argument.....a rather convoluted Strawman, nobody ever said not unwell people are diseased.

People who are ill are in bed.....they aren't spreading disease

People who are asymptomatic can and are spreading virus.

Carbon monoxide has no smell...................

 

[Terry - Somerset]

The virus can will only be "neutered" if:

• R is maintained below 1 for an extended period both in UK and internationally. A natural R of 2.5-3.0 without restrictions make this unlikely; with the mutated virus, implausible
• herd immunity is achieved when sufficient of the population have been infected, assuming this gives lasting immunity. With the mutated more virulent virus this may be ~90%.
• herd immunity through an effective vaccine

All lockdown has done is to slow the spread to the point where the NHS is not overwhelmed (although currently very close). Lockdown will not stop the virus; as soon as restrictions are relaxed it will spread again. Indefinite lockdown is not a realistic option.

Lockdown in the UK relies upon largely voluntary compliance. It is fortunate that a "light at the end of the tunnel" vaccine is in sight as public acceptance is being stretched and could very quickly fail. Lockdown is a cost mainly to the young, mainly to protect the elderly.

There are no acceptable solutions to widespread contempt of regulation. Armed forces on the streets, arrest an confinement in "camps" etc may be a cure that is worse than the disease.

 

[Rorschach]

It's called critical thinking.

This is how it goes:
In a typical year X number of healthcare workers will die of disease.

In a year with a Covid pandemic, X number of healthcare workers will die of disease + and extra amount of Y that contract Covid.

It is true a tiny number of Y will Overlap group X....but anybody with an ounce of logic can see that overlap will be very small.


You really are scraping the barrel in your quest to cling to your false arguments.......it is your choice to lie to yourself.

So it's just your opinion, how come you are allowed to do that but I am not?