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How would you rate the UK's handling of this pandemic?

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Sandb1g

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You do realise more younger people being hospitalised means more cases of long term health issues.

You do realise if we end restrictions, the R rate will go up and more people will end up in hospital and more will die
Very good point
 

Sandb1g

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Ahh the good old lockdown versus economy argument.

It's a false argument as no lockdown would result in hospitals being totally overwhelmed forcing more draconian lockdown measures creating more economic damage

In fact that's exactly what this govt has done.
Total agree
 

RobinBHM

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Interesting though that you can have one model, and people will praise it. Provide a model with a differing opinion and then the narrative isn't the reasonability of the model, it's that the person advocating it is a hate monger
Gupta has been proven incorrect, that is why she is discredited.
 

Mark Hancock

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Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.” That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%.

This view of the NHS and the graphs make grim reading.

The government has no option but make interventions to stop the NHS being overwhelmed.

Cheers James
Spent half an hour on the phone with my step daughter and this is in line with what she talked about at the hospital where she works. She's a nurse in A&E and her hospital now has an additional ward for covid patients. She spent some time yesterday sitting with a patient until the patient's daughter arrived....the patient was classed as "end of life" so relatives are allowed in. My daughter now hates going to work because of having to deal with situations like that on a daily basis...she's not even on the covid wards but dailly has to deal with the idiots using A&E as a doctor's surgery for minor/insignificant "injuries" like a scratch on a finger who think the pandemic is just a hoax whilst 23 (that's the number she told me) ambulances queue up outside the hospital because there aren't enough staff and beds to deal with them.

Why am I posting this?
  1. Because I'm worried to death about my 2 step daughters; one is a nurse who works in A&E and her twin is a care assistant in a care home. The latter tested positive for covid 10 days ago and thankfully has got through it OK.....this time.
  2. Because I am sick to death of seeing the keyboard warriors on this forum who have no contact with day to day reality posting comments based on nothing more than sitting at home googling opinions and statistics that they have found which agree with their agenda. Statistics are are not reality; they can be presented in numerous ways to say the say the same thing; e.g. they was one yesterday saying that there is a 40% increase in getting the virus if you didn't have the second vaccine within a certain time but if you checked the data it could also be presented as 4% increase...same data just expressed another way but obviously not as sensational and headline grabbing.
  3. Those that argue against the lockdowns...speak to my step daughter who is the nurse and listen to what she and her colleagues think of your "theories"....I'd personnally like to see those "free thinkers" endure just for one week in a hospital...I doubt any of them would survive it.
I've no expectation of any rational response/discussion to this from any of the keyboard warriors that have caused me to write this post so my apologies if I don't respond... too many other important things to worry about at the moment like my family.
 

Blackswanwood

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Your logic doesn't fit the data. All of these "waves" ease down before the lockdowns. Biology is a funny thing
Hi Selwyn

I must be missing something here so can you help me please?

When I look at the graphs the r rate, number of people in hospital and number of deaths is rising prior to each “lockdown”. The “lockdown” is then applied and after a delay each of the measures starts to fall. This to me indicates the cause of the reduction being the intervention that has taken place (imperfect though “lockdowns” may be).

I wonder if you could explain what I am missing that indicates the waves were already easing down and also your view that “lockdowns” don’t work?

Many thanks in anticipation of your explanation of what I and others have missed.
 

selly

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It is naive to think if there was no lockdown, suddenly other NHS services would be freed up.
It's naive to think that lockdown is stopping a seasonal respiratory disease and is
@Amateur this is what you said. It's not unreasonable to assume that you meant 82+ year olds were giving out the vaccine.
Hi Selwyn

I must be missing something here so can you help me please?

When I look at the graphs the r rate, number of people in hospital and number of deaths is rising prior to each “lockdown”. The “lockdown” is then applied and after a delay each of the measures starts to fall. This to me indicates the cause of the reduction being the intervention that has taken place (imperfect though “lockdowns” may be).

I wonder if you could explain what I am missing that indicates the waves were already easing down and also your view that “lockdowns” don’t work?

Many thanks in anticipation of your explanation of what I and others have missed.
Because in all cases the epidemic curve is slowing before lockdown is enacted.
 

Blackswanwood

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It's naive to think that lockdown is stopping a seasonal respiratory disease and is

Because in all cases the epidemic curve is slowing before lockdown is enacted.
Thanks for taking the time to respond Selly.

What do you mean by the “epidemic curve”? I can only find published data that relates to the rate of infection, positive test results, hospital admissions and deaths. All are increasing until after the “lockdown” is enacted.

Perhaps you or Selwyn (you are different people aren’t you?) could post a link to the epidemic curve so we can all understand what is being missed?

Many thanks in anticipation of this.
 

selly

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Asked what her updated estimate for the Infection Fatality Rate is, Professor Gupta says, “I think that the epidemic has largely come and is on its way out in this country so I think it would be definitely less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.” That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%.

Spent half an hour on the phone with my step daughter and this is in line with what she talked about at the hospital where she works. She's a nurse in A&E and her hospital now has an additional ward for covid patients. She spent some time yesterday sitting with a patient until the patient's daughter arrived....the patient was classed as "end of life" so relatives are allowed in. My daughter now hates going to work because of having to deal with situations like that on a daily basis...she's not even on the covid wards but dailly has to deal with the idiots using A&E as a doctor's surgery for minor/insignificant "injuries" like a scratch on a finger who think the pandemic is just a hoax whilst 23 (that's the number she told me) ambulances queue up outside the hospital because there aren't enough staff and beds to deal with them.

Why am I posting this?
  1. Because I'm worried to death about my 2 step daughters; one is a nurse who works in A&E and her twin is a care assistant in a care home. The latter tested positive for covid 10 days ago and thankfully has got through it OK.....this time.
  2. Because I am sick to death of seeing the keyboard warriors on this forum who have no contact with day to day reality posting comments based on nothing more than sitting at home googling opinions and statistics that they have found which agree with their agenda. Statistics are are not reality; they can be presented in numerous ways to say the say the same thing; e.g. they was one yesterday saying that there is a 40% increase in getting the virus if you didn't have the second vaccine within a certain time but if you checked the data it could also be presented as 4% increase...same data just expressed another way but obviously not as sensational and headline grabbing.
  3. Those that argue against the lockdowns...speak to my step daughter who is the nurse and listen to what she and her colleagues think of your "theories"....I'd personnally like to see those "free thinkers" endure just for one week in a hospital...I doubt any of them would survive it.
I've no expectation of any rational response/discussion to this from any of the keyboard warriors that have caused me to write this post so my apologies if I don't respond... too many other important things to worry about at the moment like my family.
So your daughter isn't in the covid ward and yet you are claiming the extra pressure on her is because of covid deniers? You are swallowing the govt narrative that the spread is down to "deniers" ie semi religious idea that unless you believe then you will die or are a sinner. It's not rational

The virus will spread regardless the evidence of this is the epidemic curve in Europe. We need some better weather to improve it and vaccination will help. Its quite trendy to claim that those who don't want total lockdown (because of the problems with it) are deniers but most are not.

They want sensible measures but want to keep the economy going.
 

selly

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Thanks for taking the time to respond Selly.

What do you mean by the “epidemic curve”? I can only find published data that relates to the rate of infection, positive test results, hospital admissions and deaths. All are increasing until after the “lockdown” is enacted.

Perhaps you or Selwyn (you are different people aren’t you?) could post a link to the epidemic curve so we can all understand what is being missed?

Many thanks in anticipation of this.
No go and find it.
 

Blackswanwood

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No go and find it.
Having tried already to do so I will have to live in hope that Selwyn comes along and proves to be more helpful. I am sure neither of you are putting these views forward without a sound basis for your point of view.

Thanks anyway for taking the time to respond and do stay safe.
 

Rorschach

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Having tried already to do so I will have to live in hope that Selwyn comes along and proves to be more helpful. I am sure neither of you are putting these views forward without a sound basis for your point of view.

Thanks anyway for taking the time to respond and do stay safe.
This site has excellent easy to read graphs with 7-day averages etc. Note that it uses ONS data which lags real time data by probably 3-7 days. The ZOE app data has so far followed the ONS curves pretty closely and claims to be more accurate/ in real time, it is usually 3-4 days ahead of the ONS curve but if will still of course have it's own lag.
You can take from it what you like but note that even official sources state that the epidemic curves were dropping or plateauing before lockdowns were introduced, pretty sure even the BBC have said this.

 

selly

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Having tried already to do so I will have to live in hope that Selwyn comes along and proves to be more helpful. I am sure neither of you are putting these views forward without a sound basis for your point of view.

Thanks anyway for taking the time to respond and do stay safe.
Not a problem. One day you will realise lockdowns don't do what you have been conditioned to think they do. There is loads of evidence but dont rely on the BBC. Look at the Swedish data and the diamond Princess for a start. And look at the countries who did a very hard. Lockdown (Peru) vs those who haven't.

Nz and Australia are not so useful because they quarantined before things became endemic.

And what a mess we will have afterwards to sort out. There will be potentially 500k excess deaths to deal with and huge unemployment. Lockdown fanatics will probably claim it was worth it

Toodlepip.
 

Blackswanwood

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This site has excellent easy to read graphs with 7-day averages etc. Note that it uses ONS data which lags real time data by probably 3-7 days. The ZOE app data has so far followed the ONS curves pretty closely and claims to be more accurate/ in real time, it is usually 3-4 days ahead of the ONS curve but if will still of course have it's own lag.
You can take from it what you like but note that even official sources state that the epidemic curves were dropping or plateauing before lockdowns were introduced, pretty sure even the BBC have said this.

Thanks ... but isn’t this the key graph (taken from the link you provided) which doesn’t show a peak before intevention?

ADBCE358-6679-4397-A630-68E84BC00795.jpeg
 

Blackswanwood

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Not a problem. One day you will realise lockdowns don't do what you have been conditioned to think they do. There is loads of evidence but dont rely on the BBC. Look at the Swedish data and the diamond Princess for a start. And look at the countries who did a very hard. Lockdown (Peru) vs those who haven't.

Nz and Australia are not so useful because they quarantined before things became endemic.

And what a mess we will have afterwards to sort out. There will be potentially 500k excess deaths to deal with and huge unemployment. Lockdown fanatics will probably claim it was worth it

Toodlepip.
It’s okay Selly. I’ll wait for Selwyn to come along with his data sources and consider them. Thanks again.
 
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