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billw

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Never mind the fascist illeberal regimes in Poland and Hungary. Once the spigot of German cash stops flowing, they'll be having a think about what benefits they might get from being outside (next stop, Russia-client dictatorships)
We are driven by the west being "right" and the concept that it might not be is what will fracture the west.
 

Fergie 307

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Indeed. It worked though.


I rather suspect that the very public hash the UK has made of leaving (not that any way of leaving wouldn't have caused some issues) will make the populations of other EU countries wary of voting to join us in our act of self-vandalism. At least for a few years anyway.
I sincerely hope our departure will be a wake-up call to abandon the whole federalist idea and take on reform, and a lighter touch approach. I really feel they have to do this If It is to survive. It will be interesting to see what happens when the full impact of the loss of our contributions kicks in, and exactly how they deal with it. I can see that leading to something of a bun fight. It would be a great shame to see it all go pear shaped as the concept is great. I'm sure Mr Putin will be all to happy to pick up the pieces in his part of the world, subject of course to bring "invited" in to help out!
 

RobinBHM

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So the very embarrassing leak of briefing documents prepared for German ministers detailing those countries considered to be at risk of following the UK can just be dismissed as a bit inconvenient, jolly good, no need to lift ones head out of the sand yet.
"considered to be at risk"
Is not the same as
"Most likely to"

All you are talking about is some contingency planning


Perhaps you could tell me how many years Euro sceptics have been saying the EU is about to collapse imminently

Shall we say 3 decades, or more....... :)
 

billw

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I'm sure Mr Putin will be all to happy to pick up the pieces in his part of the world, subject of course to bring "invited" in to help out!
Which is why the EU needs to be stronger. Putin wants to rebuild the USSR, and he'll be all too happy to see the EU crumble so he can reintegrate the eastern states from a failed union.

There are certainly some right-wing governments that would probably love to leave the EU. Weirdly, they're also the ones most beholden to Chinese economic influence.
 

RobinBHM

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For a few years anyway. For example, Lega Nord in Italy is built around the idea of the heavy-industry-laden northern regions (Lombardy, Veneto, etc.) hiving off from the poorer south. Much like the SNP. They're very keen on a vote for ITALEXIT, if only as a precusor to a vote on NORDEXIT!

Never mind the fascist illeberal regimes in Poland and Hungary. Once the spigot of German cash stops flowing, they'll be having a think about what benefits they might get from being outside (next stop, Russia-client dictatorships)
Ah ok.....so you are clearly an "EU is about to collapse" believer......you are seeking validation eh?......not surprising really, brexits not exactly going well

Public support for EU in both Hungary and Poland is very high.....not surprisingly EU membership has transformed these Eastern Bloc countries and the public there are very keen on freedom of movement.
 

RobinBHM

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I sincerely hope our departure will be a wake-up call to abandon the whole federalist idea and take on reform, and a lighter touch approach. I really feel they have to do this If It is to survive. It will be interesting to see what happens when the full impact of the loss of our contributions kicks in, and exactly how they deal with it. I can see that leading to something of a bun fight. It would be a great shame to see it all go pear shaped as the concept is great. I'm sure Mr Putin will be all to happy to pick up the pieces in his part of the world, subject of course to bring "invited" in to help out!
The EU has some major structural flaws....namely the Euro Zone and CAP as well as mission creep.
It's possible Brexit and Covid might be a catalyst for change. I know there has been talk of a 2 tier Europe.
 

Pallet Fancier

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Well it makes them no less true.
Try this example: quoted in the UK press, the UK Health and Social Care Committee were questioning a civil servant about vaccine supplies. A Tory member asked the CS "what if the EU restrict the amount of vaccine coming to the UK?"

There was a pause. CS blinked. You could see him wondering several things, such as how the EU would get the authority to do that, why they would do that, what colour the flying pigs were, today, etc.

Anyway, the CS eventually answered "Well, if they were to do that, then it would harm the UK's ability to vaccinate the population, but they are not doing that, so it won't."

UK Press printed the question and the "... it would harm the UK's ability to vaccinate" part of the answer, just like the Tory knew they would.

You cannot take ANYTHING at face value, any more. There is always some pipper with an agenda and an idea of how to invent a non-event and make it into a news story. Sounds like the same thing just happened in Germany.
 

John Brown

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They might read things like this first:
BTW can somebody remind me of the benefits of Brexit and how/when they will show up? I keep asking this but all I hear is a deathly hush! In fact it's very quiet out there. Too quiet - just the moaning of unemployed fisherman, HGV drivers, import/exporters, large and small.
Boris gets to be PM.
Jacob Rees Smug gets richer.
Happier fish.
Errrr... that's it.
 

ivan

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No doubt a skillfully manned small boat can survive alone on the economic sea. It would do better in a convoy. A larger vessel entirely is more likely to make better and faster progress, as there are more resources under command. As of now, the skills navigating our small boat are questionable. In the past, it was our choice to be either part of a convoy, or to join a larger vessel entirely; but no one could force the issue.

Users of the phrase "The EU wants..." are using an emotional link to suggest we were being somehow forced against our will by civil servants in Brussels. The EU can only do what the ministers of the members agree to. From the start all agreed to closer political union. That's where it's been going, and the members, not civil servants, will decide how close is close enough. There are bound to be differences of emphasis between members, which detractors sieze upon and promote as signs of breakup.

By the way, happy fish are happy 'cos we're still in the sea, 'cos if we're caught, no one can work out how to sell us...
 

sploo

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Boris gets to be PM.
Jacob Rees Smug gets richer.
Happier fish.
Errrr... that's it.
Ironically, I suspect Boris wasn't actually planning for Brexit; at the time the referendum was announced Cameron had said he was going, so there was clearly going to be a leadership contest. Throwing his hat in the Eurosceptic ring, and getting a narrow but respectable defeat in the referendum (as was widely expected) would have given him a lot of support within the party. Instead, he and Gove looked completely shell-shocked on the morning after the vote, and the next thing Boris did was to run away and leave others to clear up the mess.

The path that's lead us to Boris as PM has essentially been the opposite of survival of the fittest; a multi-year circus, until the clown was unsurprisingly the winner.
 

John Brown

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Ironically, I suspect Boris wasn't actually planning for Brexit; at the time the referendum was announced Cameron had said he was going, so there was clearly going to be a leadership contest. Throwing his hat in the Eurosceptic ring, and getting a narrow but respectable defeat in the referendum (as was widely expected) would have given him a lot of support within the party. Instead, he and Gove looked completely shell-shocked on the morning after the vote, and the next thing Boris did was to run away and leave others to clear up the mess.

The path that's lead us to Boris as PM has essentially been the opposite of survival of the fittest; a multi-year circus, until the clown was unsurprisingly the winner.
The story I heard was that up to a day or so before the referendum, Boris was still undecided about which way to jump, as he had no real opinions one way or the other, but was just looking to get the best political advantage.
Could be wrong, but has the ring of truth...That's why I don't feel that sorry for him, despite the dung-blizzard he ended up walking into.
 

Phil Pascoe

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. From the start all agreed to closer political union ...
And if our politicians had been honest enough to tell us that at the time of Maastrict we quite probably would have left then. Right from the Treaty of Rome they have insisted that was not the case.
 
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doctor Bob

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The path that's lead us to Boris as PM has essentially been the opposite of survival of the fittest; a multi-year circus, until the clown was unsurprisingly the winner.
Unsurprising hey ............. short memory.
There was a massive thread on here, part of it was how Jezza was going to do it this time around. It was a very surprising landslide.
 
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Terry - Somerset

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The UK is part of a global community. Leadership or influence of the global community generally increases the probability of favoured strategies being adopted.

The UK has swapped being a leading member of one of the top three economic powers with US and China, for a presence in their own capacity behind US, China, EU, Japan and India in GDP terms.

The other determinant of leadership is potential military muscle - US, China and Russia currently being dominant. This has changed little through Brexit.

The EU currently has no coherent defence policy, although UK position as the dominant NATO partner may come under some threat compared to the combined influence of the EU27.

In a purely objective assessment the UK will likely lose on the international stage. Whether the largely emotional benefits - eg: sovereighnty - are sufficient to compensate for the loss and hassle is a matter of opinion not fact.
 

doctor Bob

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On this thread are when someone says "may or considered" some one jumps on it and say "it's not the same as will".
But this works for both ways of the arguement.
So unfortunately for the poster it's just a strawman or a whataboutery :ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO::ROFLMAO: or maybe even a bit conflagulated.....................
I'm starting to think someone has a bet on with his misses that he can average 10 or more "catchphrases" per page.
I get it by the way, someone will now say arrh but we know we told you etc, however just above is a post saying the UK may come under ..................... so I say scarecrow.
Anyway, I've said my flinkingnubbit (Bobby's new catchphase) for the moment.
 
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sploo

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The story I heard was that up to a day or so before the referendum, Boris was still undecided about which way to jump, as he had no real opinions one way or the other, but was just looking to get the best political advantage.
Could be wrong, but has the ring of truth...That's why I don't feel that sorry for him, despite the dung-blizzard he ended up walking into.
That's Boris though: no political convictions, just whatever is good for me (though also with a history of poor decision making when he tried to get what was good for him).
 

sploo

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Unsurprising hey ............. short memory.
There was a massive thread on here, part of it was how Jezza was going to do it this time around. It was a very surprising landslide.
I did say "Boris as PM", but I was more thinking of "Boris as leader of the Conservative Party".

He's certainly managed to fail upwards though.

Was a Corbyn win ever seriously on the cards (polls or betting odds)? I thought (hoped) it might have just resulted in a hung parliament at best.
 

Rorschach

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The story I heard was that up to a day or so before the referendum, Boris was still undecided about which way to jump
Do you mean the actual referendum or the announcing of it? He can't have been undecided that close to the actual referendum, he was going around on the vote leave battle bus for weeks before.
 

doctor Bob

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I did say "Boris as PM", but I was more thinking of "Boris as leader of the Conservative Party".

He's certainly managed to fail upwards though.

Was a Corbyn win ever seriously on the cards (polls or betting odds)? I thought (hoped) it might have just resulted in a hung parliament at best.
Flap flap

Flinkingnubbit for now.
 
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